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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Most years, yes. However, his daily stuff is usually pretty good. I know a bunch of folks don't like him, but I like they guy. His seasonal forecasts have not been great, and one could make a case that is to drive clicks. That said, seasonal forecasting is a total crapshoot for pretty much anyone. For example, I bet very few foresaw the PV tightening up over Alaska. His mistake this year was cooling his December forecast at the last minute which was warm. January will likely be warm due to some really warm days during the first ten days of the month - would take some serious cold to reverse that. Was going to post this anyway(not a response to weathertree) so will post it here. The QBO was negative yesterday. That is significant in that it "might" mean that the PV is going to see some disruption. Now, the value itself is not significantly negative by the trajectory seems like it is. I am not sure what kind of lag there is regarding the negative value and PV disruption. It is a "newer" index in terms of forecasting use, and we don't understand it as well as we need to. When strongly negative, it has a tendency to correlate to PV displacement and high latitude blocking. Not strongly negative yet, but something to watch. I suspect it is not a driver at this point so it likely would have to act in concert with other drivers of which not many point to cold. That said, if the MJO were to finally sneak over and hold in the negative phases...then, the -QBO(as long as it doesn't stall...been hovering at this value for a few days)might actually have an enhanced effect on blocking. So, if we are looking for positives(and they are few), there are a couple of big hitters that are in our favor: deeply negative SOI along with a sharp drop yesterday and the QBO being negative at both 50mb and 30mb. The SOI can sometimes foreshadow flips on modeling with big drops. The MJO provides a counter to any flip.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Just watched JB's video today. He is pretty distraught. His winter forecast is about to go up in smoke again if models are correct. Now, here is an interesting nugget. The convection over the western Pacific is very much phase 6 of the MJO. However, the convection over the western Indian Ocean correlates to phases 1 and 2 which are winter/cold phases. If the western Indian Ocean convection collapses, then the phase 6 look becomes the dominant phase in the long run.
  3. Carvers Gap
    I should note that the MJO does go through 7 prior to looping back which does fit its cool down around the New Year. If we wanted to see a flip...it would never loop back and be a false loop.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Also, the MJO this AM(RMM1/RMM2) heads back for phase 5. Not a good look, but the other models have not updated on the CPC site. And a glimmer of hope, the SOI has fallen to ~ -21. Big drop.
  5. Carvers Gap
    0z EPS has reverted to the PV being over AK. I could find only one cold front that made it through at 850, and it is around NY. Its trough configuration is improving slightly relative to the shut out pattern that had been shown. 6z GEFS has a +AO, +NAO, -PNA, and +EPO(might be slight debate on that one due to the eastern PAC location). PV looks really wrapped up tight. Of note, the GEFS until recently has been perpetually cold in the d10-15 for most of December...TRI will finish much above normal once this week is done. The GFS operational did sniff out the pattern change in November about 2-3 days prior to the Euro. Back then though, the Euro couldn’t catch up. Now, seems like the GFS is struggling. If we are going to flip mid-month we will likely see an oddball run now and again on operational modeling. Would be awesome to see modeling flip on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day. Biggest problems(and they are big) this AM are a very wrapped up PV and teleconnections opposite of the values that we need. The GFS has shown some cracks in the armor as John has noted. Let’s see if the dam will break. The 6z GFS showed a piece of the PV break off and head SE. Thst is a legit way to scrounge up some decent winter wx if the PV stays locked over Alaska, but releases cold from time to time. Need the EPS to crack or show some signs of doing so.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Now, I do post the above model snapshot for a reason...systems that dig that far into the GOM have to be watched - even during a warm pattern. It is a good example of how things can amplify with good timing. Do I think Jacksonville and Savannah get a blizzard? No. And if it does, just time to hang it up this winter!!!! But in the middle of all of this warm talk...pretty hilarious run! So the Vols wanted to go to Florida for a warm football game?
  7. Carvers Gap
    This is when you know the GFS has bought a one-way ticket to crazy town. Don't see this every day on modeling.
  8. Carvers Gap
    This will be my last weeklies update until(if) things change on that model. Indeed, the Weeklies reverted back to a western trough much like they did last Monday. They have a perpetual SER, sometimes weak and sometimes very strong, through the run after the second week in January. Looked very much like September and October - but less extreme(unless the extreme is simply being washed out). At this point, if the Weeklies are right(HUGE if)...the pattern we are seeing is the winter pattern. Really nothing more to say or belabor the point. When I am having to look at d14 on a model for any signs of change...we are in a very warm time frame. It can still snow in a warm pattern. We saw that during the 90s from time to time. At this point(and that could easily change), I see no signs of a flip to sustained cold. We do have a wintery window around the New Year, and then it warms. As for the PV, the Hudson Bay is sort of the lesser of two evils. Having the PV over NAO territory is only slightly better for us than having it over Alaska. If one is looking at higher latitudes, it is blue where it should be yellow and yellow where it should be blue. I no longer am calling for a flip to a cooler pattern. There is no evidence of that on modeling. Climatology says it is possible and maybe even probable. That is our hope. However, there are Ninos during the 90s where the pattern never turned cold for sustained time. I do suspect a flip will come...just not seeing it anywhere on modeling at all today. Other than about 72 hours of cold...it is a base above normal pattern on multiple models. The other rule of thumb that supports a flip is that the pattern should change after 4-6 weeks which is around or just after mid-January. I doubt the Weeklies are correct after week 4 as they are usually just a continuation of their derived run. However, many other models depict little sustained cold in the SE. So, tough to toss the Weeklies at this point.
  9. Carvers Gap
    If we wanted to go old school....we could just root for pieces of the AK vortex to break off and head SE every few days. The GFS at 6z and 12z has this, but again, not going to find myself in a foxhole with that model. Looks like a Nina pattern on the GFS in how extreme the swings are. I agree...It is pretty fun to see wicked cold temps in Canada and Alaska though! Lots of hot pink on those Tropical Tidbits maps. Just very few delivery mechanism options in place to get it here. The way we could steal a snowstorm out of that is to have a big, powerful storm cut and pull a quick shot of that cold into the lower 48. Then, another system would have to be on its tail and hit the cold. Timing would have to be perfect, but that is how we could score a storm in a very warm pattern punctuated by a couple of strong cold fronts.
  10. Carvers Gap
    This is how bad the pattern is(if you like snow)...we are simply hoping that we can just get a cold/cool front or two to drive eastward and bring temps to at least seasonal for a couple of days at a time during the next 16 days. That should change, but the atmospheric pattern isn't driven by past climate data banks that say it should. I would not be surprised to see readings in the 70s in some forum locations during the next 7-10s day before we see some seasonal temps early in the New Year. I don't see many teleconnections or indices that hint at this pattern breaking, but pattern flips do occur...and the best we can do right now is to see if we can find when/if this occurs prior to spring.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Indeed, the overnight models are now depicting only a relaxation in the pattern that will be measured in days(maybe even 48-72 hours) centered around the NY with a very narrow potential for frozen precip. The EPS shows BN heights over Alaska that are locked into place during the d10-15 range. Looking forward to the Weeklies tonight to see if they flip back warm - I suspect they will. If not, they may well signal a way out of this mess. So really trying to see if they revert back to last Monday's look(likely trend I think) or double down on Thursday. If the Alaskan vortex moves into place, large chunks of January could potentially be warm...but, when it finally heads south(and it likely will) the flip will be impressive. That is brutally cold air. Bad thing? We may well have things in full bloom when it happens...IF modeling is correct about the warmth in the LR. Right now, I am riding with the EPs that shows periodic intrusions of seasonal cold in a base pattern that is above normal to much above normal for the next 3 weeks at least. Right now, the biggest feature change over the past 24 hours is the signal for a significant Southeast Ridge. That does not fit climatology, but the feature does teleconnect well to the Alaskan cold. So, instead of morning updates that are just repeating information about warm weather...going to hold off on my morning discussion unit the LR changes and we begin to get a consistent look again. Again, we have a small window for winter weather around the New Year. I do suspect this warm pattern breaks around mid-late January. Climatology supports this. However, in order to provide balance to those comments, know that some Nino winters during the late 90s featured very little cold(maybe one window during a couple of those winters) and very little snow at TRI. Warmth during Nino winters is nearly a given(excluding a few notable exceptions). Just going to have to ride this out. Hate to lose weeks during the heart of winter, but indeed, that looks like a real possibility. I suspect this head fake was a precursor to the pattern actually changing, but that could be 2-3 weeks into January, and I lean towards the longer time frame. As a reminder, I am only talking about temps. It CAN and DOES snow during warm, Nino patterns. That is why some actually like weak Nino patterns.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Impressive...and also a massive miscalculation by modeling that was depicting a -NAO for much of December at one time. If you see a sustained -NAO on global forecast models...beware. Likely not a run that will verify - a least not yet.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Going to go with a +NAO, active IO, un-cooperative MJO, a rising QBO, a developing drought, and a developing La Nina. Might throw in a extremely -EPO at times which produces record cold, collapses, then record warmth and rebuilds. Wash, rinse, repeat. Might even make a call for a BN December followed by AN Jan/Feb for that winter. Summer of 2021 should be an outright scorcher.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Looks like a very narrow window for snow in early Jan. The 18z GEFS, after multiple cold runs, has flipped seasonal to warm d10-15. i am still undecided for weeks 1.5-3. Lean warm to quite warm right now. But who knows. The MJO is gonna have to get out of 6 though...
  15. Carvers Gap
    I have sounded like a broken record for nearly three weeks. The LR trends are for a western trough with a brief relaxation around the New Year. The stage is set for a very warm overnight run of the EPS. Its LR usually takes about two runs to really flip. A cold Alaska is a teleconnection for a very strong SE ridge. The MJO is now forecast to loop back into phase 6 on the American suite which is usually cold - not good. The MJO on the European sweet is COD or low amplitude warm phases. Right now, I have low confidence that yesterday's 12z cold ensembles are correct. Looks more and more like a brief relaxation and then a return to a warm or even very warm pattern. It is possible and even likely that wx models jumped the gun(or the shark) yesterday. Again, this current pattern began around December 8th. Have to add nearly 35-42 days to that date before we see the pattern break down. I think what we are likely seeing on modeling are some early signals that the pattern is about to break down, but not there yet - or anywhere close as a +AO, +NAO, and +PNA are showing up in modeling. Tough to get any sustained cold from that. Yesterday, it appears was indeed a wicked head fake. We need the EPS to break back as it is absolutely schooling the GEFS and GEPS right now in the LR. It wasn't a few weeks ago, but the GEFS is now playing catch-up and is about 24-36 hours behind the EPS.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Looking for some run-to-run continuity....not there yet. Yesterday's 12z model suite was about as cold as I have seen it from a 500 persepective. And yet again, the overnight EPS went warmer - would still be decent cold for winter but not the extreme 500 look. I have a realistic theory as to why this happens - no conspiracy stuff. Think about when the sun hits the areas of the MJO and fires the convection there and think about when Siberia is coldest. I suspect(though far from certain) that data gets dumped into modeling overnight. Then, as the MJO region and Indian Ocean regions cool due to overnight temps...the MJO looks slightly different at 12z due to less intense convection. Also, those frigid overnight low temps from Siberia begin to get inputed. It is uncanny to see the overnight suite continually reverse course from the 12z suite or mute trends. So, in theory, makes me wonder if daytime convection on the other side of the planet is fouling the MJO and thus inputing a different MJO than its opposite run. When I say the MJO is bouncing around, it is bouncing wildly. I do lean cold for the second week of January...but as I noted yesterday, the past two runs of the Euro Weeklies are very realistic and very different for our region. The current pattern could go either direction: 1. Trough lifts out of the West and gives us a brief but intense cool down and then re-establishes out West 2. The trough could roll eastward and lock into the East. When one looks at the EPS, it really looks like it is stuck in between those two solutions. You can kind of see how the full latitude trough is colder on one side of NA than the other at the same time frame and then flip-flops. Looks to me like it hasn't quite worked that out yet. I think the full latitude trough solution is actually in error(might be correct for a few days). I think the full latitude trough solution is the EPS actually having two different tough placements on the same ensemble map. So, I definitely advise caution in the LR. While yesterday was awesome and I admit that I was excited...the morning's 6z GEFS and 0z EPS return us to their usual uncertainty.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Talk about some cold ensemble runs today. Wow. That EPO ridge in conjunction with a mid-Atlantic ridge will create a block that could potentially discharge very cold air into much of the United States and Canada. I definitely want to see some run-to-run continuity before really jumping on the cold train. The MJO gives me some pause. But make not mistake, if those ensembles(EPS and GEFS at 12z) verify, that would create a highway for cold air to reach clear to the GOM.
  18. Carvers Gap
    That is a BIG drop of the SOI. And the 12z EPS. That is an incredibly cold look during the d10-15.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Indeed, the MJO this morning progresses into 7 and loops back into 6 which explains some of what we are seeing on modeling this morning in terms of a step back. My guess is that (if it does that), it will eventually loop back or not happen at all. But one can see why modeling is flip-flopping. Yesterday's MJO was nearly textbook for cold...overnight, not so much.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The weather pattern that many are focusing on is about ten days out, maybe nine now. The Euro OP was likely heading to an eastern trough late in its run. The 6z GEFS is definitely there. I wasn't a huge fan of the EPS overnight as I thought it took a step back. The Weeklies two runs ago(on Monday) pushed a temporary trough eastward in early January, and then pulled it back West for most of January. OTH the Weeklies on Thursday, pulled it back and then eventually would send multiple shots of progressively seasonal to cold air eastward - looked like November. The 12z EPS yesterday looked firmly in the camp of Thursday's run. The 0z overnight still looked like Thursday's run, but slower...almost to the point it looks similar to Monday's bearish run. The models showing something good and then pulling it back has been happening for about a month. If one just splits the difference, like means we are dealing with some above normal heights over the coastal SE for a time(likely won't stay there as El Nino climatology really won't want it there). Bottom line: Proceed with caution, but also know we are approaching the time when modeling potentially could begin showing signs of a flip. We have been AN since roughly the beginning of the second week of December. Patterns usually(barring last winter's catastrophe...LOL) run about 4-6 weeks. So, I could see a couple of realistic scenarios. The warm pattern (that we have been in for a couple of weeks already) ends prematurely around January 1 OR the pattern relaxes around January 1 only to flip a couple of weeks later in mid-January. December 7 to Jan 15 is about 39 day(almost six weeks). It is very possible the models are jumping the gun, will pull back, and eventually buy in. Remember how the warm-up was modeled? Sort of went like this during several model suites in succession: warm, cold, warm, warm, cold, warm, warm, warm....and the warm pattern kept getting pushed back and eventually arrived during the second week of December. I would not be surprised if we see that same progression as we turn much colder. The real fly in the ointment is if the TPV just sits up around the North Pole and tightens up. They are due a cold winter at that very high latitude. So there is that. Will be interesting to follow the MJO saga this morning. Back to loading...keep the fires burning!
  21. Carvers Gap
    If you all don't care...I say let's have @AMZ8990 rename this thread to December and January Speculation Thread if that is cool. I think most of the discussion will focus on late December and early January from here on out. Lots of great discussion. I am pretty much too tired to type a much else. Great model trends during the past two days. And to be clear, this is not a model flip IMHO. This is just the potential pattern after the warm-up.
  22. Carvers Gap
    There have been several MJO forecasts already this season that have wanted to take it into the warm phases...and it doesn't verify there. Interesting conversation about the potential issues with the MJO interference and forecast issues. And I do think the global models do take into account the MJO itself which might be why we have seen so much variation in their potential outcomes. I have simply resorted to looking at the satellite for the Indian Ocean and MC regions.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Good trends for the past day for sure!
  24. Carvers Gap
    @TellicoWx, you need to post more. LOL. That is some good stuff on the QBO, MJO,...stuff. You are bringing it this morning. You too, Holston.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Descending simply means moving down to lower altitudes. Check. So, looks like a preponderance of high altitude winds in that area of the world have switched to the east. Looks like it has almost flipped at 30 which has decent correlation to high latitude blocking of which were are seeing some signs now in the longer range. Last year, the positive QBO(westerly) was taking over and I think that had something to do with our warm second half of winter(that and the SSW that dumped West). As Jeff has noted, the actually movement of the index is likely the trigger vs the actually raw negative or positive number....though, it going negative is not going to hurt. There is also some research that indicates that solar cycle state also influences the QBO. In other words, it behaves differently(quite differently) during maxs and mins which is why sometimes the QBO doesn't line up cleanly with surface weather. But in general, very good sign.
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