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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, snow is a weird deal at this latitude. Doesn't take much to get us to normal. I am sure big coastals have a large say in TRI's snow averages, and it only takes one of those. I got 12" of snow at my house last year during early December. That was pretty much it, but that got me pretty close to a normal winter with one storm. My bushes still look terrible almost twelve months later. LOL. And temps finished well AN with near normal snowfall. If the MJO rolls into 5/6, the blue monstrosity is going to start taking a beating. What would be wild is for that super charged, cold air mass to get dislodged(the QBO and MJO argue for that...just no evidence of that yet). Not sure it is likely, but it is not out of the realm of possibility that the entire thing could get sent to lower latitudes. Wherever it goes, it is going to break some record lows. Fall pattern was very warm, and then took about 2-3 weeks to move to a very cold pattern in November. Something similar would not surprise me in the least. I just don't like near record warm temps in the heart of winter.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I stated this yesterday and it somewhat bears repeating. The reason folks like weak Nino patterns is that there is quite of bit of energy in they system. It is one of those types of wx patterns where it can and does snow during an otherwise warm pattern. Something I also noted is that there are two(chicken and egg) camps regarding potential for winter wx. Camp 1. Cold weather needs to be in place. Camp 2. Needs to be plenty of moisture in place. Two of the biggest snows that I have seen were during very warm but active patterns. It was a shutout otherwise. Jury is still out for late January and February. Could stay warm(sort of has that feel right now...but that is not scientific) or could flip on a dime. I don't think many were expecting(I wasn't) a PV to set-up shop over Alaska - that is going to create havoc with predicted seasonal timelines. And again, the Alaska deal can release piece of the PV southeastward. We have seen that from time to time on the cold prone GFS.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Order of importance right now IMHO...When in doubt, look to the oceans... 1. Indian Ocean convection - abnormally positive IOD in early winter. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.long.data 1. MJO is easy pick for me. Lots of convection where we don't want it, even if low amplitude. Correlates very well, even at very low amplitude(even in the COD), with the warm weather we have had this month. It is also the reason that I have been banging the drum for this warm-up. 2. The unusual ENSO state with cold water neat South America, warm in the western Pacific. 3. Warm water in the GOA. 4. Tightening PV over AK which I think is a 2 week phenomenon there. 5. Recent seasonal trends during the past decade which feature warmer falls and cooler springs. Weaker signals. 1. SOI 2. QBO Wild cards: Solar and sea ice. Also, it is important to note that several Nino winters(some admittedly super) were very warm during the 90s. Again, patterns can and do flip on a dime. I don't see a ton of that(edit: meaning sustained cold) during the next two to three(edit) weeks.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Been a great Christmas Eve discussion. I have to go get a run in and then do some Christmas stuff. Heres to a better looking MJO and model suite over the next few days! Merry Christmas, everyone!!! I will try to check back.
  5. Carvers Gap
    MJO forecasts have updated on CPC...The CFS forecast above would be likely be a cold signal. It has changed from yesterday as it no longer goes completely through the cold phases and has dropped into the COD after a few days in phase 8. It is the only model that I can find with decent MJO phases, but is trending away from that. The Euro depiction takes the MJO into phase 5 and then basically stalls there. Looks like what the CFS is trending towards that. The GFS/GEFS matches the Euro. I can't stress this enough...we need that to change soon as that is generally a prolonged warm signal for eastern NA. Now, the MJO has done multiple head fakes into those regions for the past couple of months and it has not made it there. As noted above, the weakening of convection in phases 1/and 2 is likely allowing for the MJO to loop back into phases 5 and 6. Will it get there and how long will it stay if it does? Climatology/ENSO state argue strongly against this, but there it is on modeling nonetheless. Let's see where modeling goes today and tomorrow... Might be pay me now or pay me later type deal though. If 6 warms, it could eventually break loose a very cold PV and force it to lower latitudes. It would occur during late winter though.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Jax, when you say destructive....is that referencing the NA pattern and eastern warmth or is that referencing the dual phase (both 1/2 and 6) being depicted by IR satellite images?
  7. Carvers Gap
    Ten million dollar question right there...When modeling flips around, I suspect the forecast for those ares is driving the flip. If we are going to see any type of decent winter, the convection just west of the dateline has to subside. Might be that the weird ENSO set-up is wrecking havoc on things. Warm west Pacific and cool eastern. It is even possible that the ongoing QBO reversal has something to do with this as well. The QBO is correlated with PV disruptions. That phase 6 of the MJO I think is also correlated with PV disruptions. The PV is definitely not disrupted right now and is the opposite of that. However, will be interesting to see what all of that heat/steam being pumped into the atmosphere does to it. Lastly, the model that actually has a phase 6 looks is the EPS. The GEFS not as much. After looking pretty closely at the MJO, looks to me like the EPS by far has the more accurate depiction of the NA wx pattern.
  8. Carvers Gap
    One can see why the MJO is a pain to forecast right now...The western Indian Ocean convection does not teleconnect to the convection just west of the dateline. So, the MJO values are bouncing all over the place. For those that are not sure what they are looking at...the green on the graphic above is in the western Indian Ocean for phases 1 and 2 which indicates rising air. The region near the equatorial dateline is brown which signifies sinking air. But right now, we have rising air in both the dateline and western Indian Ocean regions.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Here is a screenshot from the CPC site (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf). Looks convection near the dateline is a phase 6 on this graphic and on current satellites.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Most years, yes. However, his daily stuff is usually pretty good. I know a bunch of folks don't like him, but I like they guy. His seasonal forecasts have not been great, and one could make a case that is to drive clicks. That said, seasonal forecasting is a total crapshoot for pretty much anyone. For example, I bet very few foresaw the PV tightening up over Alaska. His mistake this year was cooling his December forecast at the last minute which was warm. January will likely be warm due to some really warm days during the first ten days of the month - would take some serious cold to reverse that. Was going to post this anyway(not a response to weathertree) so will post it here. The QBO was negative yesterday. That is significant in that it "might" mean that the PV is going to see some disruption. Now, the value itself is not significantly negative by the trajectory seems like it is. I am not sure what kind of lag there is regarding the negative value and PV disruption. It is a "newer" index in terms of forecasting use, and we don't understand it as well as we need to. When strongly negative, it has a tendency to correlate to PV displacement and high latitude blocking. Not strongly negative yet, but something to watch. I suspect it is not a driver at this point so it likely would have to act in concert with other drivers of which not many point to cold. That said, if the MJO were to finally sneak over and hold in the negative phases...then, the -QBO(as long as it doesn't stall...been hovering at this value for a few days)might actually have an enhanced effect on blocking. So, if we are looking for positives(and they are few), there are a couple of big hitters that are in our favor: deeply negative SOI along with a sharp drop yesterday and the QBO being negative at both 50mb and 30mb. The SOI can sometimes foreshadow flips on modeling with big drops. The MJO provides a counter to any flip.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Just watched JB's video today. He is pretty distraught. His winter forecast is about to go up in smoke again if models are correct. Now, here is an interesting nugget. The convection over the western Pacific is very much phase 6 of the MJO. However, the convection over the western Indian Ocean correlates to phases 1 and 2 which are winter/cold phases. If the western Indian Ocean convection collapses, then the phase 6 look becomes the dominant phase in the long run.
  12. Carvers Gap
    I should note that the MJO does go through 7 prior to looping back which does fit its cool down around the New Year. If we wanted to see a flip...it would never loop back and be a false loop.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Also, the MJO this AM(RMM1/RMM2) heads back for phase 5. Not a good look, but the other models have not updated on the CPC site. And a glimmer of hope, the SOI has fallen to ~ -21. Big drop.
  14. Carvers Gap
    0z EPS has reverted to the PV being over AK. I could find only one cold front that made it through at 850, and it is around NY. Its trough configuration is improving slightly relative to the shut out pattern that had been shown. 6z GEFS has a +AO, +NAO, -PNA, and +EPO(might be slight debate on that one due to the eastern PAC location). PV looks really wrapped up tight. Of note, the GEFS until recently has been perpetually cold in the d10-15 for most of December...TRI will finish much above normal once this week is done. The GFS operational did sniff out the pattern change in November about 2-3 days prior to the Euro. Back then though, the Euro couldn’t catch up. Now, seems like the GFS is struggling. If we are going to flip mid-month we will likely see an oddball run now and again on operational modeling. Would be awesome to see modeling flip on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day. Biggest problems(and they are big) this AM are a very wrapped up PV and teleconnections opposite of the values that we need. The GFS has shown some cracks in the armor as John has noted. Let’s see if the dam will break. The 6z GFS showed a piece of the PV break off and head SE. Thst is a legit way to scrounge up some decent winter wx if the PV stays locked over Alaska, but releases cold from time to time. Need the EPS to crack or show some signs of doing so.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Now, I do post the above model snapshot for a reason...systems that dig that far into the GOM have to be watched - even during a warm pattern. It is a good example of how things can amplify with good timing. Do I think Jacksonville and Savannah get a blizzard? No. And if it does, just time to hang it up this winter!!!! But in the middle of all of this warm talk...pretty hilarious run! So the Vols wanted to go to Florida for a warm football game?
  16. Carvers Gap
    This is when you know the GFS has bought a one-way ticket to crazy town. Don't see this every day on modeling.
  17. Carvers Gap
    This will be my last weeklies update until(if) things change on that model. Indeed, the Weeklies reverted back to a western trough much like they did last Monday. They have a perpetual SER, sometimes weak and sometimes very strong, through the run after the second week in January. Looked very much like September and October - but less extreme(unless the extreme is simply being washed out). At this point, if the Weeklies are right(HUGE if)...the pattern we are seeing is the winter pattern. Really nothing more to say or belabor the point. When I am having to look at d14 on a model for any signs of change...we are in a very warm time frame. It can still snow in a warm pattern. We saw that during the 90s from time to time. At this point(and that could easily change), I see no signs of a flip to sustained cold. We do have a wintery window around the New Year, and then it warms. As for the PV, the Hudson Bay is sort of the lesser of two evils. Having the PV over NAO territory is only slightly better for us than having it over Alaska. If one is looking at higher latitudes, it is blue where it should be yellow and yellow where it should be blue. I no longer am calling for a flip to a cooler pattern. There is no evidence of that on modeling. Climatology says it is possible and maybe even probable. That is our hope. However, there are Ninos during the 90s where the pattern never turned cold for sustained time. I do suspect a flip will come...just not seeing it anywhere on modeling at all today. Other than about 72 hours of cold...it is a base above normal pattern on multiple models. The other rule of thumb that supports a flip is that the pattern should change after 4-6 weeks which is around or just after mid-January. I doubt the Weeklies are correct after week 4 as they are usually just a continuation of their derived run. However, many other models depict little sustained cold in the SE. So, tough to toss the Weeklies at this point.
  18. Carvers Gap
    If we wanted to go old school....we could just root for pieces of the AK vortex to break off and head SE every few days. The GFS at 6z and 12z has this, but again, not going to find myself in a foxhole with that model. Looks like a Nina pattern on the GFS in how extreme the swings are. I agree...It is pretty fun to see wicked cold temps in Canada and Alaska though! Lots of hot pink on those Tropical Tidbits maps. Just very few delivery mechanism options in place to get it here. The way we could steal a snowstorm out of that is to have a big, powerful storm cut and pull a quick shot of that cold into the lower 48. Then, another system would have to be on its tail and hit the cold. Timing would have to be perfect, but that is how we could score a storm in a very warm pattern punctuated by a couple of strong cold fronts.
  19. Carvers Gap
    This is how bad the pattern is(if you like snow)...we are simply hoping that we can just get a cold/cool front or two to drive eastward and bring temps to at least seasonal for a couple of days at a time during the next 16 days. That should change, but the atmospheric pattern isn't driven by past climate data banks that say it should. I would not be surprised to see readings in the 70s in some forum locations during the next 7-10s day before we see some seasonal temps early in the New Year. I don't see many teleconnections or indices that hint at this pattern breaking, but pattern flips do occur...and the best we can do right now is to see if we can find when/if this occurs prior to spring.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Indeed, the overnight models are now depicting only a relaxation in the pattern that will be measured in days(maybe even 48-72 hours) centered around the NY with a very narrow potential for frozen precip. The EPS shows BN heights over Alaska that are locked into place during the d10-15 range. Looking forward to the Weeklies tonight to see if they flip back warm - I suspect they will. If not, they may well signal a way out of this mess. So really trying to see if they revert back to last Monday's look(likely trend I think) or double down on Thursday. If the Alaskan vortex moves into place, large chunks of January could potentially be warm...but, when it finally heads south(and it likely will) the flip will be impressive. That is brutally cold air. Bad thing? We may well have things in full bloom when it happens...IF modeling is correct about the warmth in the LR. Right now, I am riding with the EPs that shows periodic intrusions of seasonal cold in a base pattern that is above normal to much above normal for the next 3 weeks at least. Right now, the biggest feature change over the past 24 hours is the signal for a significant Southeast Ridge. That does not fit climatology, but the feature does teleconnect well to the Alaskan cold. So, instead of morning updates that are just repeating information about warm weather...going to hold off on my morning discussion unit the LR changes and we begin to get a consistent look again. Again, we have a small window for winter weather around the New Year. I do suspect this warm pattern breaks around mid-late January. Climatology supports this. However, in order to provide balance to those comments, know that some Nino winters during the late 90s featured very little cold(maybe one window during a couple of those winters) and very little snow at TRI. Warmth during Nino winters is nearly a given(excluding a few notable exceptions). Just going to have to ride this out. Hate to lose weeks during the heart of winter, but indeed, that looks like a real possibility. I suspect this head fake was a precursor to the pattern actually changing, but that could be 2-3 weeks into January, and I lean towards the longer time frame. As a reminder, I am only talking about temps. It CAN and DOES snow during warm, Nino patterns. That is why some actually like weak Nino patterns.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Impressive...and also a massive miscalculation by modeling that was depicting a -NAO for much of December at one time. If you see a sustained -NAO on global forecast models...beware. Likely not a run that will verify - a least not yet.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Going to go with a +NAO, active IO, un-cooperative MJO, a rising QBO, a developing drought, and a developing La Nina. Might throw in a extremely -EPO at times which produces record cold, collapses, then record warmth and rebuilds. Wash, rinse, repeat. Might even make a call for a BN December followed by AN Jan/Feb for that winter. Summer of 2021 should be an outright scorcher.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Looks like a very narrow window for snow in early Jan. The 18z GEFS, after multiple cold runs, has flipped seasonal to warm d10-15. i am still undecided for weeks 1.5-3. Lean warm to quite warm right now. But who knows. The MJO is gonna have to get out of 6 though...
  24. Carvers Gap
    I have sounded like a broken record for nearly three weeks. The LR trends are for a western trough with a brief relaxation around the New Year. The stage is set for a very warm overnight run of the EPS. Its LR usually takes about two runs to really flip. A cold Alaska is a teleconnection for a very strong SE ridge. The MJO is now forecast to loop back into phase 6 on the American suite which is usually cold - not good. The MJO on the European sweet is COD or low amplitude warm phases. Right now, I have low confidence that yesterday's 12z cold ensembles are correct. Looks more and more like a brief relaxation and then a return to a warm or even very warm pattern. It is possible and even likely that wx models jumped the gun(or the shark) yesterday. Again, this current pattern began around December 8th. Have to add nearly 35-42 days to that date before we see the pattern break down. I think what we are likely seeing on modeling are some early signals that the pattern is about to break down, but not there yet - or anywhere close as a +AO, +NAO, and +PNA are showing up in modeling. Tough to get any sustained cold from that. Yesterday, it appears was indeed a wicked head fake. We need the EPS to break back as it is absolutely schooling the GEFS and GEPS right now in the LR. It wasn't a few weeks ago, but the GEFS is now playing catch-up and is about 24-36 hours behind the EPS.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Looking for some run-to-run continuity....not there yet. Yesterday's 12z model suite was about as cold as I have seen it from a 500 persepective. And yet again, the overnight EPS went warmer - would still be decent cold for winter but not the extreme 500 look. I have a realistic theory as to why this happens - no conspiracy stuff. Think about when the sun hits the areas of the MJO and fires the convection there and think about when Siberia is coldest. I suspect(though far from certain) that data gets dumped into modeling overnight. Then, as the MJO region and Indian Ocean regions cool due to overnight temps...the MJO looks slightly different at 12z due to less intense convection. Also, those frigid overnight low temps from Siberia begin to get inputed. It is uncanny to see the overnight suite continually reverse course from the 12z suite or mute trends. So, in theory, makes me wonder if daytime convection on the other side of the planet is fouling the MJO and thus inputing a different MJO than its opposite run. When I say the MJO is bouncing around, it is bouncing wildly. I do lean cold for the second week of January...but as I noted yesterday, the past two runs of the Euro Weeklies are very realistic and very different for our region. The current pattern could go either direction: 1. Trough lifts out of the West and gives us a brief but intense cool down and then re-establishes out West 2. The trough could roll eastward and lock into the East. When one looks at the EPS, it really looks like it is stuck in between those two solutions. You can kind of see how the full latitude trough is colder on one side of NA than the other at the same time frame and then flip-flops. Looks to me like it hasn't quite worked that out yet. I think the full latitude trough solution is actually in error(might be correct for a few days). I think the full latitude trough solution is the EPS actually having two different tough placements on the same ensemble map. So, I definitely advise caution in the LR. While yesterday was awesome and I admit that I was excited...the morning's 6z GEFS and 0z EPS return us to their usual uncertainty.
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