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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    12z Gefs and Geps.... MSLP and individual surface low placement maps (where all lows are on one map), show a trend towards a deeper low with more members to the north and west of the mean placement. Plenty of time for this to get bigger. Classic Nino, low road track. The Canadian ensemble has some big dog tracks.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Textbook Miller B, Mid Atlantic track. Energy goes through middle TN and then hands off to the Piedmont. Not good for us, but certainly that is a big storm signal for them and maybe NC.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Silas, you posted it. Awesome. That is a powerhouse. The GFS is often too progressive (exception was last winter), so that could be big.
  4. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC has a strong Miller B solution for the MA and another lower latitude system after that. I wasn’t sold on that timeframe earlier...but the potential is there for sure. The 12z gfs went OTS, but if I showed its solution with a powerful slp over Louisiana...might make one think twice.
  5. Carvers Gap
    I think you are right. Just eyeballing modeling today, there is a slight delay there, maybe 24-36 hours. I think models have been too quick to break down the ridge. Modeling has been off-and-on though for several days re: cold. It may well be that serious cold is about to return to NA, and it's causing models to go haywire in the LR.
  6. Carvers Gap
    I had the unfortunate honor of taking one-too-many computer programming classes while in college. I had a math class where we had to write calculus programming in basic - gag. I could do fundamental programming, but calculus rarely agreed with me. Fortunately, I had a buddy who was great at calculus, and we handled the programming together. Computer wx models are nothing just programming code. Take some time to think about that. I will say this, some of what we see on modeling looks like infinite loops - meaning the program gets locked onto a trend and cannot move to anything new. We see that in the form of feedback on the NAM at range. We have seen that with recent MJO plots. When it is warm, modeling tends to stay warm. The opposite is also true. Sometimes the change itself is feedback. It seems that problem has been worse this winter. I also think that three years of Nina data has really skewed modeling towards Nina responses. In reality, this is a textbook Nino winter so far. If I hadn't looked at a model and had been blindfolded from all internet data, this feels like a Nino winter - cold, damp, rainy, cloudy, some cold, big snows, grass gets green early(no lie...weird characteristic of Nino winters).
  7. Carvers Gap
    I just roll with the ensembles at this range.
  8. Carvers Gap
    I don't think any of them have been particularly good this winter. They have not handled the Nino rotations well. It is almost like they are pre-programmed to Nina tendencies, and have missed badly due to that.
  9. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS wasn't a can kick(from timeline which has been discussed here) that I could tell. Cosgrove had thought that the cold would return well before the 12th. Earlier operational runs supported that return to cold earlier in the timeline....the 12z operational booted that. I think he has adjusted his thinking and is saying President's Day though early March. I will say, I didn't like see the EPS stall that trough out West. The control kept it moving. This is feels like late December deja vu. The conversations are very similar. What we do know is the firing of convection over the MC was strong, and at some point it should be reflected on the CPC MJO plots. I have been super adamant that this warm spell was going to be legit. I would not be surprised at some can kicking as these eastern ridges are TOUGH to eliminate. They are super stable. I am just riding with the ensembles right now.
  10. Carvers Gap
    JB has a great post on the past ten days of MJO trends. It is truly astounding at how bad the plot has been. I didn't realize it had been that bad. I kind of suspected it, but yikes. I would screenshot a portion of his post, but I think those are his thoughts...and are his to share publicly or not. I don't Twitter often, so maybe he posted those three plots.
  11. Carvers Gap
    I will say this...if the Euro Weeklies had been derived from 12z, I don't think they would have looked nearly as good. It could be a hiccup, but 12z was the first time that global ensembles seem to break from their Weeklies. What does that mean? It means it would have been very tough to see global ensembles move to a trough in the East after d16. This disconnect also happened right after Christmas. Even the Weeklies blinked and then returned to their old, colder forecasts. It took a few days for ensembles to adjust to MJO forecasts. Day10-16...it seems global forecast models struggle w/ cold, and wash it completely out. But there may be reasons for that this time. Again, as for the MJO...it is a mess. Choose your own adventure. What we do know is that right now it has raced across phase 6 which it was not forecast to do. That said, it "should" stall (during the next few days) given satellite and OLR looks. Where it stalls is going to be important. The MJO definitely slowed on this morning's run. Getting most of the way across 6 is a big victory. Let's see if it hits the wall. If it continues to race across 7, we will know the MJO plots were in major error. Big test coming up. Even Cosgrove this evening seems to have been knocked of his spot a bit by the warm, warm run of the 12z GFS suite. Let's hope it was a blip.
  12. Carvers Gap
    And this his how you draw up a 30 day map...the groundhog better get some sunglasses for Feb 2 if this is right.
  13. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies control again today w/ big numbers. Couple of light events during the last weeks of Feb. Most of this falls during two storms in early March. The ensemble was similar to yesterday w/ snow into Tallahassee this run.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Winter Storm Warnings up for the Apps.... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 255 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024 TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-280900- /O.NEW.KMRX.WS.W.0002.240128T1200Z-240129T1800Z/ Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi- Southeast Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Including the cities of Doeville, Mountain City, Neva, Shady Valley, Trade, Laurel Bloomery, Hartford, Cedar Creek, Erwin, Unicoi, Limestone Cove, Hampton, Cades Cove, Elkmont, and Gatlinburg 255 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected above 3000 feet. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with higher amounts possible on the mountain peaks. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Mountains of East Tennessee above 3000 feet. * WHEN...From 7 AM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Gusty winds and snow will reduce visibility to less than a quarter mile at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Interestingly, the GEFS and GEPS ensembles have the low trekking across the GOM...it just doesn't turn. Timeframe definitely has my attention. Great posts by everyone.
  16. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Ramblerthat could evolve into something good though. Could easily be a slider if blended with the GFS. Definitely worth watching. Still a ways out there. Good find.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Looks like a hybrid Miller w some energy transfer verbatim through middle TN. Very good MA look and maybe even North Carolina.
  18. Carvers Gap
    As for the Feb 5 system, energy transfer is an issue on the Euro. The GFS is likely progressive. Decent little window if it holds. If that deepens on the coast that could bring the cold in quicker. Maybe we can steal a storm before the bear cold arrives.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Might be about to hit “go time” for tracking. The MJO is almost out of 6, but did slow down a bit since yesterday. There is still a forecasted loop back into warm phases, but that is beginning to feel like a “Lucy pulls the football” look - meaning the MJO is going to keep progressing (albeit maybe slower) and not stall in warm phases. The MJO plots at CPC this morning are pretty much a “choose your own adventure” bank of options. The good thing is that most of them keep the MJO to the left of the plot which is cooler or cold. I think decent cold is still in the Feb 14 range - give or take 48 hours. There is still an outside chance this gets here a bit earlier (not referencing the cold shot just before that).
  20. Carvers Gap
    Sure!
  21. Carvers Gap
    Euro Weeklies are bumping up snow for Feb and early March. I don't worry about actual totals, but just look for storm tracks.
  22. Carvers Gap
    That is exactly what my post was about....they are all in sync including the EPS/GEFS/GEPS. They are all singing the same song. They are within just a few hours of each other re: progression.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies and today’s 12z ensemble continue to be in sync in terms of progressions. Maybe there is a can kick of 24 hours to Feb 15th. That is remarkable consistency thus far from LR modeling. Looks like maybe a mini cold shot around the 5th, a return to much above normal warmth for a week, and then NA cools down for 3+ weeks. Looks like a great pattern if it can verify - an old fashioned February winter pattern vs being an extension of spring.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Between the fall drought and the recent cold...grass here looks pretty much toasted in most places. Your grass seems to green up earlier than TRI. You have a green thumb!
  25. Carvers Gap
    Also, for me, one of the most interesting times in using computer models to predict the weather as a hobby....is when ensembles can’t keep up with trends. I am not sure we are seeing that just yet, but maybe. The GFS will often pivot before other operational modeling, and we might be seeing that. If has been flirting with a return to cold earlier than its ensemble as has the Euro control. OTH operationals are likely just too fast with the cold. For now, ensembles are probably right...but one can see the change to a colder pattern between d10-16.
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