Carvers Gap

Good trends overnight to have ensembles beginning to creep on board, and have 2/3 of globals show a decent storm. Still a long ways to go. We are kind of in that space where models have trouble with storms(lose them). If they get this one back early, and lock-in...good sign.

Was just going to say that the 0z Euro ensembles are honking for pretty much all of E TN.

6z GFS and CMC are nice tracks. I need to check the ensembles, but nice tracks for sure.

Ensembles have lots of members south of the TN border and into the Carolinas. Probably where we want it at this range, but ensemble support for a low road system is there. I suspect it trends north, but that gives me pause. Let's see if the Euro holds that 12z line for a few runs. I don't think there is a big block to keep it south...just the cold air press. I highly doubt that cold air is modeled correctly yet. Now, if by tomorrow evening we are still talking about suppressed ensembles...

Looks like the 12z GEPS and GEFS have an overrunning event to our SE, but there is a shadow of the storm along the Apps. Amped solutions would get washed out at this range.

Right where we want it on the GFS.

Now, we are cooking with gas. 12z Euro was a beaut. If we can get it to lock-in, that is a good thing. It nailed this last storm.

All of the ensembles are picking up this system. Might take 4-5 model suites, but somebody in the SE is probably not done with winter just yet.

It could end up in Indiana before the trend is over. I think probably suppression is our greatest enemy for this one, but seeing a system jog from Jacksonville to Columbia(SC) to Knoxville. Those are BIG moves in three consecutive runs. If there is no block, it could easily cut.

The 6z GFS is not a bad run. The concern is that it is still trending north.

Maybe one of these days we can do a WW2 weather thread. Might be a good summer mental exercise. Korea also had some ridiculously cold winters. Might even be a good veteran's day thread.

Kingsport might have some uncorrupted data(hand written and archived online) from that time as it was easily the biggest of the Tri-Cities at the time.

Likely! The early 40s would teleconnect well to the brutal cold of WW2 in Europe, ie Battle of the Bulge.

It (and other modeling) has kind of a funky evolution during that time frame. I "think what it is trying to do is to build and anafront with a wave on it. Makes total sense...not quite there yet.

Missing data!

That is amazing. I lived in Knoxville at the time as a kid during that time. My definition of a cold winter will forever be skewed! LOL

Where can I find TRI's top coldest Januarys or is it something I just need to hand crunch? January 1985 was -8.8F. 77 was -14.3. 82 was -5.3. 94 was -5.2. 10 was -5.3. I am in a rush, so those are the ones I can think of for Januarys in my lifetime which are cold. That "could" put this January in the top 3 for the past 50 years. I'd have to go back and look pre 70. Double digit departures for January I wouldn't think would be that common, but maybe they are? The other thing.....current departures might not be the same as departures from several years ago. With the new norms...it is easier to go well below normal IMHO. Back then, it took some work. I don't think this will approach a top snow month at all...just looking at temp departures...sorry, I should hav specified that.

Give me some numbers. What are the records for January temps in terms of departures from normal for the month? What is it going to take to get into the top 5? TRI is at -8.4F for the month. There are 17 days left. I would guess at least 4-5 of those are going to be substantially cold. If we can shrug off some warmth during the last 2-3 days of the month, we may make a run at a really decently cold month.

The 12z GEFS and GEPS snow mean is going back up. That is usually a signal those models are on the hunt. The 12z EPS(an ensemble!) has the lows next week at or below zero over portions of TRI. I would suspect something is going to occur with that front - anafront, slider, miller. That is a big time front, and "should" have something react to it.

The 12z GFS agains looks far too suppressed. The 12z CMC looks about right. Both give systems a chance to come back north which they likely will. It has snowed in Charleston, SC, back during the early 90s. However, none of those setups have verified this winter. Remember the Key West snow showers? Didn't happen. Remember the central Florida snows on modeling? Didn't happen. Cold has been continually over modeled this winter. Could it happen? Sure, once in a blue moon. However, climatology supports those systems being further north. Up to this point there is zero ensemble support for those ultra suppressed runs(at leas in regards to snow in the orange groves). For now, we will have to rely on ensembles as the GFS has just been off its rocker of late.

Good little window early to late next week. Things that have not verified this winter: 1. Snowstorms in Florida and extreme levels of suppressed flow 2. High numbers of clippers. For now(stress now), the pattern is a warm up and rain pattern. Next week is cold and dry looking. Like Jeff, let’s keep those waves south and let them work back. The CMC is pretty adamant with overturning. Other modeling kinda got there last night with a late developing wave which skimmed E TN.

The good thing is that came back well north. We probably want our storms that far south with the northern trend being legit this winter on modeling.

Yeah, that has been overdone all winter. I am not sure why modeling has been so extreme with the extent of the souther edge of cold at range. But across the board it has done that, and been badly wrong. But agree, that would be an extreme event.

MJO. CPC has a great site about it. Draw a line down the middle. Generally it rotates counterclockwise. For cold weather, we don't want to be on the right. 4-6 are huge warm signals, but sometimes can get an oddball snowstorm in one of those. 3 we can tolerate. 8-1-2 are best. 7 is transition. Which numbers are good changes with each month. In general, we don't want stalled convection over Indonesia(Maritime continent - MC) or the eastern Indian Ocean(IO) - that is the shorty story. That teleconnects to a southeast ridge(SER) here. The black line is the predicted plot. Red dots are where we are now. Think of it as looking at what is upstream from us in the atmosphere. At some point in Feb, we are likely headed to 4-6. It takes a while to learn about. That said, if you simply look at a satellite map of the aforementioned areas, you can see it or you can see that convection is about to move into those areas. If you learn to read the plot and satellite maps, you can often predict weather up to 20-30 days in advance for our back yard. Very reliable, but not foolproof.

A very cold air mass and a very active STJ on both the CMC and Euro - I feel like I have said that before? The details aren't worked out right now, but that is about as good a look as one can get for a winter storm in the south. That has been a very consistent look. Details TBD, but might make for some fun model watching for the next few days.