Carvers Gap

I thought about that. I have been looking for it. That will definitely hurt the gravy train. Was it there on this RGEM run? I started looking at 6z on all modeling and didn't see a ton. But that surely might be a culprit. Conversely, if it isn't there....we get the NAM.

12z ICON is a tick south and less qpf, but the same general storm. That NAM run is probably going to be on the far northwest range of options. I won't call it an outlier yet as the 12z suite isn't completed, but sure likes like it will be. We need qpf to quit being reduced which is the off-and-on trend since last night.

12z RGEM is having none of what the 12z NAM was cooking up....might even be light on the precip. Similar run to 6z but qpf cut is my guess.

I think this phase is giving models fits. We will have a much better picture after the Euro runs. I won't stake my fortunes to the NAM at range, but it did pretty well with the last system IMBY...so I won't discount it either. In the back of my mind, I do think there is probably some change due to the vortex being sampled better on shore, but it is still in an area that is very remote. Satellites help with that, but on ground measurements are tough to beat. One day we will have drones which can sample those areas more regularly.

So far. The decent pattern (at times) will probably come to a screeching halt all at once later this month or early Feb, so I have my seatbelt on!!!!

The good thing is that it is the NAM at range. Modeling is still just all over the place with the phase. That said, we have seen the same pattern as the Sunday event. It went way northwest, came way southeast, and trended back to the middle. This had a lot of juice from the word "go" on modeling. It is kind of the antitheses of the 18z Euro. Started off either juiced or not, and then perpetuated it.

12z NAM looks like it has plenty of juice through 48.

I thought the 6z Euro was a decent improvement.

Frozen ground to start with is a rarity!

Yep. I want to make that trip! They have buoys, satellites, and some defense stuff up there, but nothing like 1000s of daily outgoing flights along the western US. It is a blindspot, and has wrecked havoc on more than one weather model when it hits that spot.

School systems need to vey wary on Friday especially. With the ground already frozen, there is NO grace time when precip starts - meaning streets probably aren't going to take some time to cool off before sticking.

Looks like the isotherms are buckled a bit more in front of the storm on the 12z. NE TN stays cold which is why this storm runs out of gas here....takes some time to saturate in addition to interference from the Smokies of the southern fetch. But this should be good in western areas especially.

When storms roll into the continent north of Vancouver, there just isn't much up there. The southern systems over the eastern continental US get sampled well, even off shore. Systems north of Vancouver give modeling fits at times. I wonder if the data was sparse, and what data went into modeling showed a weaker storm...in reality it showed a blind spot. OR it could just have a weaker vortex. Hopefully, we continue to see amounts rebound today E TN. 6z was a good start!

@AMZ8990, that overrunning event(that we have been loosely monitoring) is on the 0z Euro just after d10.

It seems like we have had snow in the air for several days. Last night, we still had snow on our mulch from Sunday morning. It wouldn't have taken a long to drive from Bristol yesterday to find snow completely covering the ground in the foothills. This type of stuff is what "could" follow the storm Friday/Saturday, i.e. lots of small events. If we get snow Fri/Sat, it may be very difficult to get schools back in session for a while. Keep in mind that most systems in E TN are almost out of days due to Helene. Nobody banked hurricane days!

We have between 1-2”. We know someone who already banged up their car this morning. Would have been thread worthy I think. I totally missed it!

Yep. I tend to agree. Hopefully, we see TN gets some more precip on modeling overnight and tomorrow. That would be a great trend.

You aren't kidding. It is the best I have ever seen it. Hopefully the width and breadth of this snowstorm spans Athens to Lexington and Fayetteville to Asheville. We needed that previously modeled snowstorm in Gainesville tonight. Where is the GFS when you need it?!

So you think room to grow?

I forgot it was NAM time, and just pulled up the kuchera map. I didn't even know to be worried. I think we got all the bad mojo out of the way tonight...just flushed all of it at once with the 18z Euro and Vol basketball. Ain't nobody could hit nothin' either on weather models or in Gainesville, FL, about 6:00PM. LOL. Something had to start going in the net at some point.

At this range, I don't mind seeing the NAM a little jacked up. That is its bias at this range.

The 0z NAM held serve and then some. Good to see it stay consistent.

Yeah, I think it is probably just doing its normal "late to the party" move as you noted earlier. We have had a good mix of models either going NW and SE. I bet we see a northern jog at some point during the next 24 hours. Really, I think it was just a missed phase as you also noted. @Daniel Boone, time to get in here.

That northern stream is what causes it to dig. Otherwise, it is flat and pretty anemic. That piece of energy is part of the reason we saw those will swings from run to run. When it dug in over Oklahoma, it really pops the storm.

The AI was good, though, right?