Carvers Gap

Did the UKMET yet again signal a change in the qpf….this time upwards? Sure looks like it. Model watching might be fun tonight.

One thing that NE TN foothills communities need to remember -> Where you score is often on the upslope as the event passes. I think we are good to go(as confident as we can be while also knowing weather models are as fickle as all get out). Ground is rock hard cold up here in TRI. Whatever hits....is sticking. Let's roll.

The 18z ICON has also bumped up totals.

18z RGEM has increased totals slightly. I "think" we are starting to see the bump back up that we normally see as events are in view. Pretty consistently look for both the RGEM and NAM at 18z.

18z NAM is a beaut for NE TN folks (both 3k and 12k).

Been snowing here pretty much all day - mood flakes. Have a feeling this is just the beginning of winter.

It snowed about 1-2" here this morning, and caught everyone off guard. So, a WWA was issued. The current advisory overrides the WSW which is also issued also for the same area for Friday. Several reports in the observations thread. It was a mess.

Weather model releases across my platforms has slowed to a crawl or ceased.

Snow showers/flurries continue to fall over portions of TRI.

@tnweathernutconvection may indeed be the culprit w/ the Canadian products. Pretty easy to see over SE TX and Louisiana. Shuts down the fetch.

12z GFS appears to hold serve....nearly identical run. That is what we want to see.

The 12z GFS is rolling.

Been a pretty consistent trend on modeling since the 18z Euro washed out last night. However....it would not surprise me to see this amp up and jog north a bit on that model at the last minute. In NE TN we are still 48 hours out. More than once I have had a storm add to its qpf on modeling when it finally gets into the eastern Plains. Models kind of ebb and flow. I still use ensembles at this range because of that. Trends on short range modeling are generally a tick south with less qpf. I would suspect that trend south stops at 0z tonight or 6z tomorrow. Just a hunch. I would not want to bullseye right now.

For the 12z short range lunch menu, I am gonna roll with a blend of the 3k NAM for amounts and the RGEM track. I think the track is probably right on the RGEM, but it is undergoing its qpf. The 12k NAM.....isn't allowed to hang out with us today.

I thought about that. I have been looking for it. That will definitely hurt the gravy train. Was it there on this RGEM run? I started looking at 6z on all modeling and didn't see a ton. But that surely might be a culprit. Conversely, if it isn't there....we get the NAM.

12z ICON is a tick south and less qpf, but the same general storm. That NAM run is probably going to be on the far northwest range of options. I won't call it an outlier yet as the 12z suite isn't completed, but sure likes like it will be. We need qpf to quit being reduced which is the off-and-on trend since last night.

12z RGEM is having none of what the 12z NAM was cooking up....might even be light on the precip. Similar run to 6z but qpf cut is my guess.

I think this phase is giving models fits. We will have a much better picture after the Euro runs. I won't stake my fortunes to the NAM at range, but it did pretty well with the last system IMBY...so I won't discount it either. In the back of my mind, I do think there is probably some change due to the vortex being sampled better on shore, but it is still in an area that is very remote. Satellites help with that, but on ground measurements are tough to beat. One day we will have drones which can sample those areas more regularly.

So far. The decent pattern (at times) will probably come to a screeching halt all at once later this month or early Feb, so I have my seatbelt on!!!!

The good thing is that it is the NAM at range. Modeling is still just all over the place with the phase. That said, we have seen the same pattern as the Sunday event. It went way northwest, came way southeast, and trended back to the middle. This had a lot of juice from the word "go" on modeling. It is kind of the antitheses of the 18z Euro. Started off either juiced or not, and then perpetuated it.

12z NAM looks like it has plenty of juice through 48.

I thought the 6z Euro was a decent improvement.

Frozen ground to start with is a rarity!

Yep. I want to make that trip! They have buoys, satellites, and some defense stuff up there, but nothing like 1000s of daily outgoing flights along the western US. It is a blindspot, and has wrecked havoc on more than one weather model when it hits that spot.

School systems need to vey wary on Friday especially. With the ground already frozen, there is NO grace time when precip starts - meaning streets probably aren't going to take some time to cool off before sticking.