Carvers Gap

The 12z Euro is doing what the gfs did…one right after another.

Give me the 12z Canadian ensemble and let’s roll.

1.11 system trend scorecard 12z CMC was a tick south. GFS was a double tick south. UK headed to Cuba. Euro is north. Folks, I am riding with the RGEM…unless it leaves me.

Pretty sure the UKMET tried to throw us a bone with this past Ohio system with a more southern run(late in the game as well) and ended up being incorrect. It is the southeast side of guidance.

12z Euro is gonna be just fine. It is kind a blend of all them.

12z Euro looks slightly north of 6z and a little less robust at 57. We will call it Miller light.

12z GFS Kuchera is a glacier. I am not where I can post it, or I would for posterity.

AI trended SE or more like the CMC?

Through 54, the CMC looks like it might have more juice than 0z...if that is even possible. We'll see if it hold together.

Through 48, the CMC is pushing those isotherms just a hair north of where they were at 0z. That would likely mean it may scoot slightly north of 0z. We'll see.

12z CMC looks very similar to 0z so far through 30. Might jog a hair south over the eastern areas.

Kuchera....boom.

12z GFS "appears" to be set to also take a slightly more suppressed path just using isotherms early in the run as evidence.

12z NAM, ICON, and RGEM look good for E TN peeps. Two of those are at range, so take with some grains of salt.

WPC graphic(just runs through day 3...have to wait or E TN graphics as we are day 4):

Still a pretty decent signal for overrunning between the 20th-25th. Honking pretty good. Cold stops at the Apps with it being seeded from Montana. We have seen that setup many times during the past decade. For western areas of the forum, that has been money. If the cold is strong enough, it can reach all of the way to the Apps - periods of ice, zr, rain, snow over a 2-3 day timeframe. Something to keep an eye on.....

Member 37 seems about right.

That streamer put some school systems out this morning! We used to call it the Twilight Zone when driving through odd snow bands on I-26 in Gray.

Some big hitters in there.

My guess is this locks in between 12z this afternoon and 0z tonight. The last big jumps in would likely be at 0z tonight, but that is just a guess. Generally, I still look at ensembles for amounts and watch the deterministic runs for trends from this point forward.

Jury is still out on whether this is will be a true slider. MRX called it a Miller A, but there are still some really big differences downstream over the NE corridor. It may slide off the coast before it gets to the big cities. I would tend to say it is super similar to the 96-96 storm in terms of track. Kind of a slider but some Miller A characteristics since it may well try to turn the corner a bit. How NE TN fairs will depend on how much it turns the corner and backs the flow. The rain shadow is the issue for NE TN peeps right now. The 6z Euro was much better in that respect(more NE TN snow) as was the 6z GEFS. The 6z EPS is still running(out to 48). It is interesting to see the RGEM with an aggressive precip field. That might imply some mixing in the eastern valley if extrapolated, but it is at range and prob too amped. It is very similar to the 0z CMC in placement of the precip. MRX has a great snow graphic(posted above). I generally agree with that. I think NE TN has a decent chance to get over 4" of snow as the wrap around will help here w/ better ratios at that point. 3-6" for the eastern valley seems reasonable. Points westward may be higher. The angle of this into the forum area is going to be important. Still, even at this late time, the phase is not being modeled consistently. Numbers could be higher or lower depending on how that works out. The cold is in place, and the ground very cold. For E TN, this looks like this hits at night or as the sun sets Friday. Friday storms tend to be the norm of late. It is a weird deal that many great storms have arrived on the weekend, but it is kinda true.

We are also at the point where we can start watching the RGEM which looks aggressive.

6z Euro expanded its snow map. The 6z GFS shrunk it. But the are pretty close at this point.

Look at that source region....18z GEFS.

Yesterday, deterministic runs found a cold shot late in the run. The 12z EPS and GEPS are frigid late in their runs. The 18z GEFS is now leaning in that direction.