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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. That sure looks a lot like the 12z GEPS that Reb posted.
  2. Been a long, long time since I have seen three ensembles like we have seen at 12z.
  3. @John1122both the entirety of the 12z GFS and Euro look a lot how I pictured 1977 that you described.
  4. Both the 12z Euro and GfS just bury the forum.
  5. Light snow flurries in Kingsport this morning.
  6. Snowing here in Bristol(flurries). Mountains are covered in white. Their parking lots have been plowed recently.
  7. The 12z Euro is doing what the gfs did…one right after another.
  8. Give me the 12z Canadian ensemble and let’s roll.
  9. 1.11 system trend scorecard 12z CMC was a tick south. GFS was a double tick south. UK headed to Cuba. Euro is north. Folks, I am riding with the RGEM…unless it leaves me.
  10. Pretty sure the UKMET tried to throw us a bone with this past Ohio system with a more southern run(late in the game as well) and ended up being incorrect. It is the southeast side of guidance.
  11. 12z Euro is gonna be just fine. It is kind a blend of all them.
  12. 12z Euro looks slightly north of 6z and a little less robust at 57. We will call it Miller light.
  13. 12z GFS Kuchera is a glacier. I am not where I can post it, or I would for posterity.
  14. AI trended SE or more like the CMC?
  15. Through 54, the CMC looks like it might have more juice than 0z...if that is even possible. We'll see if it hold together.
  16. Through 48, the CMC is pushing those isotherms just a hair north of where they were at 0z. That would likely mean it may scoot slightly north of 0z. We'll see.
  17. 12z CMC looks very similar to 0z so far through 30. Might jog a hair south over the eastern areas.
  18. 12z GFS "appears" to be set to also take a slightly more suppressed path just using isotherms early in the run as evidence.
  19. 12z NAM, ICON, and RGEM look good for E TN peeps. Two of those are at range, so take with some grains of salt.
  20. WPC graphic(just runs through day 3...have to wait or E TN graphics as we are day 4):
  21. Still a pretty decent signal for overrunning between the 20th-25th. Honking pretty good. Cold stops at the Apps with it being seeded from Montana. We have seen that setup many times during the past decade. For western areas of the forum, that has been money. If the cold is strong enough, it can reach all of the way to the Apps - periods of ice, zr, rain, snow over a 2-3 day timeframe. Something to keep an eye on.....
  22. Member 37 seems about right.
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