Carvers Gap

I am just digging back through my images archives. Here are some good ones. (BTW, the 18z GFS buries the forum over the next 16 days)..... Now you know why I like the Euro Weeklies control run. It potentially(if this storm verifies) hit the Jan 25th time frame from 30 days out - the day after Christmas! The AIFS hit it at 360. The GFS hit it earlier that the image, but its 288 map is uncanny with possibly near perfect BN heights. The EPS absolutely nailed the d10-15 over-running window - I just didn't post that image. Hopefully, this gives us some historical reference as we look back at what worked and what didn't from a LR modeling perspective. The GEPS was probably the first ensemble to really stick and hold w/ the overall look at 500.

I like seeing which models sniffed this out at range. This forum had this window from way out there. Just looking at some posts(Jed and Jax, go pick up your long ranger awards). The hapless and much maligned and lowly GFS nailed this window at full range(pretty sure 384!), including the big high. Ensembles from all models also hit this at almost d15. The GFS has historically had some skill(or is it a broke clock is right 2x a day) at d16. Pretty incredible for a that model or any model. Honestly, I am intrigued that it was able to due that given its struggles this winter.

The 18z ICON does the same. So, the models which end up with a suppressed solution....just cut off the Baja low for it to drift into oblivion. When it kicks out...boom.

I think you are right. When the entire thing comes out, it can actually attack the big high. Without that energy...it is forced well south.

I sure was. Not a trend we want to see north o I-40. Any model now which is trying to cut west of the Apps is an outlier. Models are quickly feeling the effects of a hp(albeit a bit weaker) which is exerting a lot of force. I suspect the Euro will trend south...but eventually trend back north. Suppression, in my mind, has always been an equal risk to the cutter scenario. It makes much more sense. That said, the GFS has been woeful this winter...and the ICON has been all over the place. The 18z GEFS is probably more important for a few more runs.

I think we are about to find out that models which were trying to crash a slp into a 1045 were maybe out to lunch.

The 18z AIGFS has completely abandoned its amped solution - almost a pure slider now w/ even a secondary wave of over-running right behind it. And right behind that...a clipper.

In fact, this could be a very different run of the 12z Euro.

12z Euro presses the high into place by 111. This thing isn't coming north.

Not a major cutter. Significant changes w/ surface pressure anomalies. Much colder run, and less punch through middle TN. TRI doesn't even get above freezing during the event. 6-10 degrees colder over much of E TN. Major move.

The 12z AIFS just moved off its mark. Much stronger high presence.

Buckle up, ya'll!

Then AIFS might be just a bit different.....

Where did you find that?

I feel like the shields are about to go up in KPT, @Holston_River_Rambler.

Indeed. The GFS and 6z AIFS have the same deal. And very, very cold temps w/ that second one.

AIFS late?

I hope they aren't riding w/ the lowest verification score, right? I think the GFS is about to be badly wrong.

What are you changing your tune to?

"Nothing to see here...move right along."

FWIW, the 12z GFS is absolutely burying your area.

Maybe we better start looking at the QPF trends? I have to think a 1040+ hp sitting to the north of this is a big problem, especially since it is well west of the Apps into the Midwest or plains.

The NBM ticking up is concerning on a lot of levels.

Remind me what that is?

That is telling. Takes how long to include the 12z data?