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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    This run has a chance to be good.
  2. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS should hold serve with at least the first wave.
  3. Carvers Gap
    HP is stronger this run over the top by just a hair...slight trend to Euro but it has room to turn NE.
  4. Carvers Gap
    SLP in Canada is in a more true blocking position at 60. This should not be suppressed.
  5. Carvers Gap
    If the Euro is gonna get the dub, we will probably know on this run.
  6. Carvers Gap
    The problem with the far northwest envelope models moving this way is they may be trending(passing) right on through. Those are big moves SE. I doubt they are done. We will know more by tomorrow AM.
  7. Carvers Gap
    I noticed on the Euro that the blocking low in eastern Canada was maybe a bit more south and west. That interaction drove the boundary further south which in turn squashed the potential winter storm. That trend was noticeable early in the run. That was a big difference from 0z.
  8. Carvers Gap
    That is a good point. The UKMET went to St Louis. The Euro went to Savannah.
  9. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS ensembles are split between the more NW path, the path directly across the state, and the more southerly path shown at 12z. If the Euro is right, northern MS, northern AL, and Chattanooga are in the ballgame. Good trends for them. Chattanooga has certainly waited a long time for some snow. If they get it, I will be super happy for them! The 12z EPS does lend some support to the operational.
  10. Carvers Gap
    The reason I said “oddly,” is that this system has trended southward from northern KY to the mid-South in terms of snow axis. Ensembles have had solutions exactly where the Euro just went. It would not shock me to see this suppressed - that has been my main concern.
  11. Carvers Gap
    I honestly don’t know. I think you all have as good a chance as any.
  12. Carvers Gap
    I was hoping for the TRI snow hole to fill in during this run....looks we still have some work to do.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Let me edit my last comment....Chattanooga is oddly in the best place to score 1-2" of snow on that run.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The Euro whiffs on the entire state. LOL
  15. Carvers Gap
    So we have: UK/CMC: Cranked Euro: OTS GFS: in the middle of the others...... Choose your own adventure......
  16. Carvers Gap
    Lived up to its name. Whew.
  17. Carvers Gap
    OTS.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Looks suppressed on pressure maps at 117. I can't see the surface maps yet. High pressure quickly has built in over the top.
  19. Carvers Gap
    At 96, it has room to come north...slightly less hp over the top.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Should be a hair flatter at 90....
  21. Carvers Gap
    And the 12z Euro is rolling...
  22. Carvers Gap
    Just digging through the January thread. Models have had this cold front since December 31st. That is just impressive.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The mountains have snow on them right now. This may be a deal where the mountains have snow from Monday through the rest of winter. Super happy for the ski slopes. If they don't get snow, they can sure make it in bunches.
  24. Carvers Gap
    I just posted in the pattern thread for you. Pretty epic....yardstick for John's backyard.
  25. Carvers Gap
    @weathertree4u2 , here you go. Fun run. 3 storms.
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