Carvers Gap

All I can say.....I have no idea if we see anything close to that(probably not in the NE). But if that is real, learn everything you can when tracking it. We don't get those very often. That would go in a book some day. If anything, just enjoy that run.

Can anyone get a Kuchara map for just that storm including the upslope after, ~ roughly Jan 11-13?

42" in 24 hours. (Kuchera)

Somebody up there just got four feet on that run. That was a blizzard run. edit: 3' for that storm. I forgot to take out the current storm.

The guys in the MA forum might need some smelling salts after that run.

That has 78mph sustained winds at 156.

That gets to 966 off NYC. That is a blizzard for them.

If that phases misses, there is one which is only about 24-36 hours right behind it.

The low diving into the backside of that storm caused the system to back the southwest flow just a bit. That caused the southwest flow in front. The "low in the lakes" setup yields more snow, but a less powerful system. The only issue with that setup is that the slp could trend northwest over several runs. That is a really big storm. It deepens rapidly. That is a boomer. But all-in-all, we take that run in spades.

Looks like there is something right behind it.

@Daniel Boone, that 18z GFS run a 95-96 redux?

That is a Panhandle to Hatteras track. E TN usually does just fine with those. The southwest flow in front of the system is a problem. However, if it turns the corner cold will slam into the northwest quadrant of that storm.

The thing with big storms that I often see, we almost always deal with some energy going up the eastern valley when there is an inland runner. IF (stress IF) that is a really solution, that would be much, much bigger IMHO. That is a boomer. There should be no low over the Lakes. It came right on down the Plains. If it does that, we are possibly in business. Even though I get downsloped on that run, I take that 10/10 times in my local. Foothills folks would likely have a different answe

I wasn't paying attention. When watching at 3 hour increments, I just assume it is going faster than I think it is!!! That is a really, really good track. I look more at track at this range.

MRX mentioned southwest flow in front of the storm. Looks like it is going to gain some latitude. Let's see how much. Just another iteration of the scenario. That is gonna be an inland runner. IF it actually takes that track, it should be significantly bigger. Good, good run.

So, the low in the Lakes is diving into the back of the low from the Southwest. If it can actually pull that off during future runs....very big storm.

Should be good.....

The 18z GFS phased better by 81....let's see where it takes us.

As long as it will go there, yes! This "should" be a prolonged series of cold shots. We are just in day 3 of what should be almost a 3 week cold spell.

Yes. We had snow/sleet/zr around 10:00AM when the forecast had us set for early afternoon. I miscalculated(I followed the local NWS office's opinion that the atmosphere would take longer to saturate), and just about didn't get to the house (not in a 4wd) this morning. We had to turn on Waze to get traffic reports and had the radar on.....I didn't drive the truck this morning, and wished I had! Fortunately, I-26 wasn't crowded this morning. Looks like rain for MBY from here on out.

Honestly, we have grown to intermittently claim western North Carolina (depending on the event) posters, some eastern Arkansas folks(Will maybe), southern Ohio, and a few some from southern Illinois, Indiana, and/or Missouri. All are welcome. Super glad to see our middle and west TN posters as well! I think the quality of posting in this forum by everybody brings people together from places which I never thought possible before the wx forum concept. It really does a great job of including places outside of the "original charter." Plus, a lot of the maps that many share here...they cover those aforementioned areas. Some of their sub-forums aren't as active as ours. We used to be part of the southeast forum, but that forum covered weather for mainly the Research Triangle. So Mr Bob and company managed to get us our own shingle many years ago. A lot of us (now getting AARP mailers) are part of another weather forum(SE forum as well) which preceded this one. The very first weather model I looked at was the NAVY NOGAPS. I got tired of trying to learn how to read it, so I stumbled about and found a group who was posting in the SE forum (from SW VA and E TN).

Nah, no need to justify it. You all have been with us form the first day that we split from the southeast forum. Don't even think twice about it. We aren't letting the Mid-Atlantic forum have you all. LOL.

Southwest Virginia is 110% included and always has been. They are founding members of this subforum.

And if you hand't shown me a single weather model as a kid, I would have noted that winter was progressing as normal IMBY. Also noting, I grew up in Knoxville as a kid (I am a Knoxville native). Lots of little snows so far. Cold start to winter, 7-8 day interlude of warmth, and back to cold. Really, that is about as good as it gets (so far!) IMBY.

It is always possible it can be correct. The GFS especially can be a canary in the cold mine. But...the 12z GFS went full glacial yet again(two runs in a row), and ended w/ a monster cold high crashing southeastward. The GFS is usually the one I watch for changes. I still like the pattern lasting until the 20th. I might even extend that 3-5 days now w/ the MJO dragging along. Then, maybe a transition of 5-7 days after as the trough retrogrades into the Mountain West. I do think we will probably see a ridge in the East pop, but I suspect cold continues to push from Montana at least to the Apps. I am a little less certain of that, but it is a hunch. If you look at good winters, those winters seem to find a way to bridge between cold shots. If all of the cold at some point comes south, I think winter is done after that. However, if it releases in pulses like we are seeing in modeling...it could find a second wind. The analogs that I used for winter have a very cold March. For whatever reason, I am just not watching the MJO right now. I should, but am not. I read Holston's posts and that is pretty much my update. What is incredibly encouraging, the MJO hasn't even started its rotation into the cold phases yet. Maybe that last sentence is the best news of the day, including rumors of storms.....