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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    There used to be a high precip pivot in SW NC and Upstate SC, right? I remember looking at that as a kid, and wondering how that got there.
  2. Carvers Gap
    This pretty much sums up that run, and Holston's image earlier is even better.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Agree. Greased the skids, and a very realistic scenario.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Here is an interesting stat. The northern keys have seen frost. Key West has never had frost or wintry precipitation dating back to the earliest European settlers' records.
  5. Carvers Gap
    1985 was triple weighted by CPC today and 1977 was double weighted for their d8-14 analogs. The mechanism is there. The thing about a cutter with that type of cold lurking...it can grab the mother load and send it.
  6. Carvers Gap
    That has kind of been the formula during past winters for snow. Now, what would be wild would be what John had mentioned which is kind of daily snows which modeling doesn't pick up, because rations are crazy high.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Somebody has a 55 degree departure from normal. This run is just silly cold. When the GFS cuts with that first system, it goes wildly cold.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Those are the lows that I wasn't sure I would see again in my lifetime. We are about to find out if the atmosphere still has that type of extreme in it. I kind of hope not. But OTH, it would be amazing to see. I guess I don't have a choice either way!
  9. Carvers Gap
    I "think" that is snow on the ground after the anafront. I think that is our best path to snow. With ratios in that cold, we could see 4-8" of snow easy.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Man, has it been windy here today. Probably one of the only times I had to be really careful to be ready to handle a wind gust against our vehicle while on the interstate.
  11. Carvers Gap
    @Greyhound, we need an update on the metal snowman.
  12. Carvers Gap
    That is just mind boggling. Got the entire hemisphere, and the PV found our zipcode on that run. Those analogs above might be right.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Who was it that owned the metal snowman?
  14. Carvers Gap
    Feels kind of toasty at just -31 at TRI. I am getting DMs from people in Florida who have found a missing elk, and would like to return it.
  15. Carvers Gap
    All time record lows within reach on that run. That is a textbook example of why modeling is a mess today. Modeling just isn't built to handle cold like that at this latitude.
  16. Carvers Gap
  17. Carvers Gap
    Man, 258 on the GFS....chasing some all-time record lows.
  18. Carvers Gap
    If we get cold like the GFS is depicting on the 10th, and anafront is very plausible.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Congratulations, Orlando?
  20. Carvers Gap
    @Daniel Boone, the NYE analog package...Those are frigid. 19850119 19800122 19550125 20001228 20070125 19770120 19761229 19691231 19561230 19850124
  21. Carvers Gap
    ZR in TN is generally realized with a hp just west of the Apps which funnels cold down on this side. That 1040 high riding over the top is a big problem. That said, the GFS puts ice where a warm nose should be. However, if this arrives at night or first thing in the morning I have seen evaporational cooling creat cold temps at the surface, and then lock it in.
  22. Carvers Gap
    If the Euro is right about precipitation amounts and the GFS/CMC are right about the temps, we have a big problem. We do not want heavy rain hitting the surface which is below freezing. It certainly looks like somebody in KY and/or TN is going to deal with this potential.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Looks remarkably similar to the CMC...whoever said that - I agree.
  24. Carvers Gap
    That is just a nasty, nasty run by the 18z GFS.
  25. Carvers Gap
    The GFS really doesn't like modern electricity - ice.
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