Carvers Gap

All I want to see is the northern and southern streams interacting at this range. The GFS and CMC are loaded up in that regard.

The 12z CMC missed almost exactly like the 6z GFS did. Looks like it will phase the let behind energy with the next system.

Looks to me like some warm air slides up the valley ahead of the storm, and then switches to snow as the storm slides by. That used to be pretty common at TRI. I doubt higher elevations would see mix with that. Seems like in 94 or 96(I was in Knoxville at the time....) that we had some glaze which was followed by snow, and then cold. It was a mess. I was cleaning of my car, and the glaze shattered. I thought I had broken the rear window!!! LOL. That glaze also backed up the water from draining on my roof....came right into the apartment on Lonas.

My guess (FWIW) is this will get stronger over time and jog northwest. Modeling is just now potentially figuring this out. If it consolidates during future runs, it would likely be stronger. That is where we want it at this range IMHO.

This is the type of run we want to see on modeling at this range. I haven't looked, but am guessing it managed to phase. Really good look.

It's baaaaa-aaaack.

Morning thoughts.... 1. I know MRX says ice doesn't fit climatology. However, modeling has continued to shift ice to the TN/KY border and south of it. MRX usually know, but modeling has me looking over my shoulder. That trend is going to need to monitored. At some point, modeling should start trending back north, but every once in a while modeling doesn't sense the cold...and just keeps pushing south. The RGEM caught this trend first. It is a good canary in the coal mine if it continues southward. 2. The 6z GFS was a miss with the system on the 10th. Players are still on the field. It just missed the phase as it formed a cutoff over northern Baja, and held energy back. JB would call that a pay me now or pay me later piece of energy. Why? Well, it comes out later in the next cycle of storms, and brings snow to similar places.

0z RGEM is a lot of ice for TN. Maybe the cold is overdone. The 0z 12k NAM shifted the ice south but not quite to the TN/KY border. Modeling is maybe sensing the cold.

Knox posted the ensemble. Here is the control for the Weeklies...

That phase looks very much like the GFS. Hopefully, we see that continue. Even on the misses yesterday, that is the general look.

If anything, extreme runs verifying are so rare. So, the trend is often to moderate towards norms. The norm is not Orlando. The GFS does have support from the 12z Euro AIFS. Need to reel that look in....

Lots of good things with this map. It'll most assuredly change. We want this to become more common on ensuing runs. It won't be there every run, but this is ideal. Ridge on the Pac Coast. NAO. Active northern stream. GOM open for business. Confluence here. Is it right? IDK. Lots of mirages of late, so we will wait until we see the whites of their eyes.

Back in the day, we used to have a saying that we wanted everything headed to Cuba in the LR, and then let it work its way back. That a worked for us for a while...then it actually starting snowing on the Gulf Coast!!!!

Post 300...looks like the GFS is gonna go for it again on this run. What we are also looking for is these types of runs to show up more often, ie where everything phases. While we have the NAO, it "should" slow everything down and make that more possible. I think the AO is still negative or forecast to do so, right? If so, those are two really good indicators for storms east of the MS. Well, that is enough from me for one run. Let's see if other modeling follows suit. Again, I know we don't talk a lot bout SE TN...but these tracks are decent for you all down that way and have been for several runs.

Essentially, we want to see a phase to our southeast. This weekend's storm moved well west of initial modeling. What I "think" we are seeing is the cold progressively pushing the storm track southeast. The cutter to start the pattern makes sense. We have seen that like 1,000x. I don't want to fight a suppressed system. Let's play ball with an amped system and see what we get.

The 12z EURO AIFS wasn't a bad run. I have been sitting on that nugget for a bit, just to see if it was supported by other runs. Nice couple of sliders. I think what we are seeing is modeling trending north with the base of the trough. That allows for the GOM/STJ to open up shop. What was in Key West a few days ago is now sliding across the Mid-South, and that makes much more sense. Time will tell if true or not.

GFS is in the middle of a big run.........it caught the cutter first, ie it felt the amplification first. Might it be this time? Maybe. It sure seems like there should be a storm right where it is. Temps will plunge if true.

The 18z GFS with a boomer, and room to trend north and west. Good run.

MRX noted there are still significant timing issues withing the NBM. The 18z RGEM was slightly south.

The trend for the past 48-72 hours is for more STJ and less trough extremes. We are looking for confluence. All of those systems way south of us...I suspect(no guarantee) they work well north.

The 12 GEPS is still just ridiculously cold. The Euro Weeklies move to a more La Nina cold setup from Jan 20-30...cold stretching from Montana to TN. I am still not sure anything is fouled right now. Still looks cold, just not extreme. EPO is up and down for the next several weeks. PNA looks like the base. My guess is that the base of that trough gets attacked several times per the GFS. Again, the good thing about the GFS winning the battle with the cutter....it might be right with what is after. 12z was a good run. Good signal for cold and light/moderate event before the pattern breaks after the 20th.

Just looking at the long range. I believe we hang onto this pattern to the 20th. Some modeling suggests through the 25th. You can see at the very end of ensembles the trough with an extension to the northwest(GFS especially). That extension is the first sign of a retrogression of the trough into the Mountain West. I think we see back and forth cold/warm between the 20th and 28th...then we break for warm for an undetermined amount of time. My guess is that most of February is warm with intermittent cold shots. Then, I think March is likely cold. January was the wild card month. Looks like we are back on schedule after January. Something to watch, I have seen some pretty bad sever season analogs popping up recently for late March into April. I can't name which ones off the top of my head - maybe that 1960s analog a few pages back. For a big storm, there is a window from maybe Jan 16th to Jan 25 as the trough backs West. That puts the trough in a good spot for a Miller A/Inland runner. Hopefully, we can time a piece of energy as it retreats. Cosgrove things winter comes back after the late Jan lull. I am not so sure. However, the Euro Weeklies (control) shows only a brief relaxation to warmth, and then the trough back eastward. That control can sometimes sniff out problems with the ensemble. That Mountain West trough has been kicked back and kicked back. I have February as really warm. I feel much less confident today that we see an extended snow pattern. I would say most of you feel the same. However, I am taught this lesson over and over. When you see stuff in the d10-15, sometimes it disappears around d10. Then it comes back. Also, more times than not the depth of the trough is over modeled and comes back north. We WANT systems to our south on modeling right now IMHO. I think we get 2-3 systems before this is all said and done. Don't be surprised if severe cold shows back up on modeling. The GEPS has it.

To me modeling looks like it is replacing the Arctic look w/ normal January cold and normal STJ activity. Just my opinion, but I can't complain. I bet we hookup with something before this is all said and done.

That is the exact setup you mentioned the other day... look at the downslope in the upper valley and the cold banked against the Plateau. These are super sneak for places like Knoxville.