Carvers Gap

Knox posted the ensemble. Here is the control for the Weeklies...

That phase looks very much like the GFS. Hopefully, we see that continue. Even on the misses yesterday, that is the general look.

If anything, extreme runs verifying are so rare. So, the trend is often to moderate towards norms. The norm is not Orlando. The GFS does have support from the 12z Euro AIFS. Need to reel that look in....

Lots of good things with this map. It'll most assuredly change. We want this to become more common on ensuing runs. It won't be there every run, but this is ideal. Ridge on the Pac Coast. NAO. Active northern stream. GOM open for business. Confluence here. Is it right? IDK. Lots of mirages of late, so we will wait until we see the whites of their eyes.

Back in the day, we used to have a saying that we wanted everything headed to Cuba in the LR, and then let it work its way back. That a worked for us for a while...then it actually starting snowing on the Gulf Coast!!!!

Post 300...looks like the GFS is gonna go for it again on this run. What we are also looking for is these types of runs to show up more often, ie where everything phases. While we have the NAO, it "should" slow everything down and make that more possible. I think the AO is still negative or forecast to do so, right? If so, those are two really good indicators for storms east of the MS. Well, that is enough from me for one run. Let's see if other modeling follows suit. Again, I know we don't talk a lot bout SE TN...but these tracks are decent for you all down that way and have been for several runs.

Essentially, we want to see a phase to our southeast. This weekend's storm moved well west of initial modeling. What I "think" we are seeing is the cold progressively pushing the storm track southeast. The cutter to start the pattern makes sense. We have seen that like 1,000x. I don't want to fight a suppressed system. Let's play ball with an amped system and see what we get.

The 12z EURO AIFS wasn't a bad run. I have been sitting on that nugget for a bit, just to see if it was supported by other runs. Nice couple of sliders. I think what we are seeing is modeling trending north with the base of the trough. That allows for the GOM/STJ to open up shop. What was in Key West a few days ago is now sliding across the Mid-South, and that makes much more sense. Time will tell if true or not.

GFS is in the middle of a big run.........it caught the cutter first, ie it felt the amplification first. Might it be this time? Maybe. It sure seems like there should be a storm right where it is. Temps will plunge if true.

The 18z GFS with a boomer, and room to trend north and west. Good run.

MRX noted there are still significant timing issues withing the NBM. The 18z RGEM was slightly south.

The trend for the past 48-72 hours is for more STJ and less trough extremes. We are looking for confluence. All of those systems way south of us...I suspect(no guarantee) they work well north.

The 12 GEPS is still just ridiculously cold. The Euro Weeklies move to a more La Nina cold setup from Jan 20-30...cold stretching from Montana to TN. I am still not sure anything is fouled right now. Still looks cold, just not extreme. EPO is up and down for the next several weeks. PNA looks like the base. My guess is that the base of that trough gets attacked several times per the GFS. Again, the good thing about the GFS winning the battle with the cutter....it might be right with what is after. 12z was a good run. Good signal for cold and light/moderate event before the pattern breaks after the 20th.

Just looking at the long range. I believe we hang onto this pattern to the 20th. Some modeling suggests through the 25th. You can see at the very end of ensembles the trough with an extension to the northwest(GFS especially). That extension is the first sign of a retrogression of the trough into the Mountain West. I think we see back and forth cold/warm between the 20th and 28th...then we break for warm for an undetermined amount of time. My guess is that most of February is warm with intermittent cold shots. Then, I think March is likely cold. January was the wild card month. Looks like we are back on schedule after January. Something to watch, I have seen some pretty bad sever season analogs popping up recently for late March into April. I can't name which ones off the top of my head - maybe that 1960s analog a few pages back. For a big storm, there is a window from maybe Jan 16th to Jan 25 as the trough backs West. That puts the trough in a good spot for a Miller A/Inland runner. Hopefully, we can time a piece of energy as it retreats. Cosgrove things winter comes back after the late Jan lull. I am not so sure. However, the Euro Weeklies (control) shows only a brief relaxation to warmth, and then the trough back eastward. That control can sometimes sniff out problems with the ensemble. That Mountain West trough has been kicked back and kicked back. I have February as really warm. I feel much less confident today that we see an extended snow pattern. I would say most of you feel the same. However, I am taught this lesson over and over. When you see stuff in the d10-15, sometimes it disappears around d10. Then it comes back. Also, more times than not the depth of the trough is over modeled and comes back north. We WANT systems to our south on modeling right now IMHO. I think we get 2-3 systems before this is all said and done. Don't be surprised if severe cold shows back up on modeling. The GEPS has it.

To me modeling looks like it is replacing the Arctic look w/ normal January cold and normal STJ activity. Just my opinion, but I can't complain. I bet we hookup with something before this is all said and done.

That is the exact setup you mentioned the other day... look at the downslope in the upper valley and the cold banked against the Plateau. These are super sneak for places like Knoxville.

So, the GFS found this weekend's cutter when no other model even remotely had that solution. Now, take a look at what it does at 12z. Honestly, I have been watching football and enjoying the cooler weather. I do like the storm for the 10-11th timeframe to be something at least for the southern portions of the forum area. If you live in Chattanooga or Birmingham or Oxford, or even Memphis...worth watching at least from a distance.

Maybe I am in the minority, but I don't see much has changed. Just glancing at ensembles, they still look very cold. The GEPS has days that are 25-30 BN. The 6z GFS has the winter storm after the rain/ice situation this weekend. Are they as cold as they were 4-5 days ago? No. But...that kind of cold doesn't allow for much snow at all. In order to get snow, the cold has to relent at some level. The pattern looks good to roughly the 20th or even beyond. Ensembles are the way to go.

I was driving into the foothills outside of JC, and saw plenty of snow showers in the mountains. Looks like areas above 4,000' had snow on the ground.

Phased systems are what we should be seeing w/ the NAO lit. It slows everything down, and lets the northern and southern streams connect. At this range, I look more for pieces of the puzzle than actual details. Details are going to change, but those pieces are what we want.

The good thing about the past two runs of the GFS (12z and 18z) is that model is phasing the heck out of every system after d8. Another one after the one I just posted.

The northern vortex somehow separated like the inside of a cinnamon roll...and cut into the lakes while the rest phases. That is how close that was to being very big. That would have been a slp further west if it phased. New is left.

Just looking at 500 for the 18z GFS and the d8-10 system...there was a phase, it was just kind of wonky which at this range is top be expected. But we take a phase at 500.

The other thing, that SLP is still going to climb a bunch in latitude even when it misses.