Carvers Gap

I wonder if that is allowing HP to force the storm south and keep it colder. Before, the storm was out ahead of it.

Looks like the 0z CMC is ice.

The cutter that once went to western MI several runs ago is sliding over Tallahassee, Florida.

Kind of a wonky run as convection cuts off the feed northward....just slides across the GOM. Risk is suppression with this run.In reality, that run would be nice I think.

at 153, winter storm for middle and west Tn underway...

at 150, looks formidable.

12z GFS, bout to unwrap this run....1041 hp sitting right over the top at 129.

Where we are tonight....Cold (maybe extreme) is still on the table. Winter wx chances are possible. The worst of this appears to have a duration of about 7 days...8th - 15th. All of that could change as some of these dates are still in the d10-15 window. We knew at some point that we might be tracking another great winter pattern. Is this the next great pattern that people will talk about for decades? We will know soon enough. If it doesn't work out, we know the drill. LOL. But at some point, we are going to see another great pattern either way.....I think.

Re the 18z Euro AIFS....The first system is slower and flatter with no cutter that I can see....just a warm nose. Main precip line which stretched across KY at 12z is now over Tenn on this run.

First (potential ice) system is further south, but not ice yet on the AIFS. Second system is below.

Yeah, good insight. I think with this much cold and a potential winter storm on the tracks....they are all over the place.

The 18z GEFS mean will join the 12z CMC mean. Happy Hour has been good lately.

The 18z GEFS is a winter storm for Tennessee as well.

The system on the 6th....the GEFS has several members well south of the TN/AL line.

The 18z GEFS has ice into the mid-South at 147.

Honestly, at this rate it could trend south of us like the CMC. That is an ice storm as is for much of I40 across the state of TN.

The 18z GFS is much further south this run w/ frozen precip encompassing most of the state on this run. Icy.

I am not where I can post images right now, but the CPC hazards map is a Christmas tree.

Possible or it could just snow in New Orleans, Charleston, Savannah, or….Tampa/Orlando. I don’t think any of those places are exempt at this range.

Somebody check this. Does the 12z GEFS have us(TRI and many other stations) below freezing from Jan 7-14???

If we get any snow or ice on the ground, we may make a run at some lows I thought would never be approached again in my lifetime.

This is starting to show back up. Real feel.

Here is the comparison 12z vs 0z EPS. Notice how much colder.

I gotta be honest, the EPS sure looks a lot like the ICON and CMC.