Carvers Gap

So far. The decent pattern (at times) will probably come to a screeching halt all at once later this month or early Feb, so I have my seatbelt on!!!!

The good thing is that it is the NAM at range. Modeling is still just all over the place with the phase. That said, we have seen the same pattern as the Sunday event. It went way northwest, came way southeast, and trended back to the middle. This had a lot of juice from the word "go" on modeling. It is kind of the antitheses of the 18z Euro. Started off either juiced or not, and then perpetuated it.

12z NAM looks like it has plenty of juice through 48.

I thought the 6z Euro was a decent improvement.

Frozen ground to start with is a rarity!

Yep. I want to make that trip! They have buoys, satellites, and some defense stuff up there, but nothing like 1000s of daily outgoing flights along the western US. It is a blindspot, and has wrecked havoc on more than one weather model when it hits that spot.

School systems need to vey wary on Friday especially. With the ground already frozen, there is NO grace time when precip starts - meaning streets probably aren't going to take some time to cool off before sticking.

Looks like the isotherms are buckled a bit more in front of the storm on the 12z. NE TN stays cold which is why this storm runs out of gas here....takes some time to saturate in addition to interference from the Smokies of the southern fetch. But this should be good in western areas especially.

When storms roll into the continent north of Vancouver, there just isn't much up there. The southern systems over the eastern continental US get sampled well, even off shore. Systems north of Vancouver give modeling fits at times. I wonder if the data was sparse, and what data went into modeling showed a weaker storm...in reality it showed a blind spot. OR it could just have a weaker vortex. Hopefully, we continue to see amounts rebound today E TN. 6z was a good start!

@AMZ8990, that overrunning event(that we have been loosely monitoring) is on the 0z Euro just after d10.

It seems like we have had snow in the air for several days. Last night, we still had snow on our mulch from Sunday morning. It wouldn't have taken a long to drive from Bristol yesterday to find snow completely covering the ground in the foothills. This type of stuff is what "could" follow the storm Friday/Saturday, i.e. lots of small events. If we get snow Fri/Sat, it may be very difficult to get schools back in session for a while. Keep in mind that most systems in E TN are almost out of days due to Helene. Nobody banked hurricane days!

We have between 1-2”. We know someone who already banged up their car this morning. Would have been thread worthy I think. I totally missed it!

Yep. I tend to agree. Hopefully, we see TN gets some more precip on modeling overnight and tomorrow. That would be a great trend.

You aren't kidding. It is the best I have ever seen it. Hopefully the width and breadth of this snowstorm spans Athens to Lexington and Fayetteville to Asheville. We needed that previously modeled snowstorm in Gainesville tonight. Where is the GFS when you need it?!

So you think room to grow?

I forgot it was NAM time, and just pulled up the kuchera map. I didn't even know to be worried. I think we got all the bad mojo out of the way tonight...just flushed all of it at once with the 18z Euro and Vol basketball. Ain't nobody could hit nothin' either on weather models or in Gainesville, FL, about 6:00PM. LOL. Something had to start going in the net at some point.

At this range, I don't mind seeing the NAM a little jacked up. That is its bias at this range.

The 0z NAM held serve and then some. Good to see it stay consistent.

Yeah, I think it is probably just doing its normal "late to the party" move as you noted earlier. We have had a good mix of models either going NW and SE. I bet we see a northern jog at some point during the next 24 hours. Really, I think it was just a missed phase as you also noted. @Daniel Boone, time to get in here.

That northern stream is what causes it to dig. Otherwise, it is flat and pretty anemic. That piece of energy is part of the reason we saw those will swings from run to run. When it dug in over Oklahoma, it really pops the storm.

The AI was good, though, right?

18z Euro AIFS looks very similar to 12z in terms of its qpf. Knocks about 0.05 off across the board, but not as drastic as the 18z op.

It definitely has been weaker for several storms - GFS/NAM/RGEM have been better with overall the qpf. I don't like the trend though, but it is one run. However, with the northern stream energy making it onto the continent, it is possible better sampling will improve the resolution of the forecast. On to the next run! 18z EPS vs 18z Deterministic. Pretty rare to see the ensemble have more juice than the operational. 18z Deterministic vs 12z Deterministic

Precip went way down....just ran out of gas as it crossed the region. I looked at 500. I don't see much different from 12z regarding phase. Maybe a tad more shear? However, it has been going down on accums since 6z. It has always been the weakest. Waiting to see the ensemble. May have been a hiccup. However, with the northern system being sampled now, we may see some changes over the next 12 hours. I wouldn't think large scale track changes, but we could see the qpf change.

18z vs 12z.....