Carvers Gap

Just tossing the snow maps as an outlier(and they may not be an outlier...but just at this longer range, I will), take a look at those temp maps. Those look like 3 hour increments. I assume the include afternoon temps. Take a look at how long the 2mtemps(surface basically) stay below freezing at both locations. Look at the lows at TRI. The 6z Euro AIFS just posted similar numbers. For me right now, the cold is the big story. Precip will come into focus as we get closer. Just and insane run all the way around. I suspect we see some warm-ups in front of these strong cold fronts FWIW, but if that were to verify...that is pretty rough.

The 6z AIFS is probably my main concern. That is just bitterly cold. The 500 sigma map is equally impressive. 40+ degrees below normal during the second coldest week of the year.

Gives you the day for January...08. Then it gives the hour....21? 08/21....Looks like a full 16 day run listed.

I should add....see John's post about the 0z Euro. I think the best potential is between d8-20, and that has been the case for weeks. Deterministic models are just now "seeing" that timeframe. So, model watching might be fun for a few days. Until we get that potential fully inside of d10(can't get all 12 days obviously), it will be tough to know details. However, I do like seeing northern stream energy embedded in a cold pattern. That is usually a good sign for MBY, NE TN, SW VA, SE KY, and even down to Chattanooga if the northwest flow starts flying. Really, the entire region has a chance with severe cold. Cold and dry is always an option and maybe the default likely option....but that isn't always the outcome in our forum area. In order, I would put these as our best, realistic chances after looking at modeling for a few days.... 1. Northwest flow clippers of the 1-2" snow variety 2. Ana front - 4-8" of high ratio snow followed by bitterly cold air 3. Slider - general 3-4" of snow over most of the forum area . . . . . 4. Overrunning even - big hitter 5. Miller A / Inland Runner....we need the cold front to be sharp and tap the GOM. The exit point for systems that climb appears OTS for now. So, we need to depend on the northern stream or general confluence until the trough retrogrades enough for the Atlantic to be in play.

I don't want to cause false hope. Honestly, that is a realistic map IF that cold verifies. It is one possibility of many. 20" of snow in NE TN is not as uncommon as official records would have us to believe. 20" in the mountains over 16 days would be normal or even below normal at this time of year. Really the thing to watch is IF those bigger runs continue. They won't be every run, but just watch and see if the show up about 1/3 of the time. The CPC is using monster winter analogs. Even one of those analogs would get my attention, but they are using upwards of 70% of their analogs from the very best winters of the past. If you were playing Madden football, those would the the Hall of Fame all-star teams. I am not exactly sure why they are using those years. There are plenty of other years besides 77, 85, and 96. So, I question that a little bit. That said, it isn't just a wx model showing that potential. CPC is ringing the bell as well. But yes, we live in the Upper South. All options (good and bad) are on the table at this point. Pretty severe cold does look likely - that seems to be a constant. But all are wise to make sure to get these within a few days before setting higher expectations. My general rule for big snow is modeling doesn't see them IMBY until the last minute. If modeling is increasing totals within the last 48 hours, and increases until the even starts....the model is in catch up mode. That said, some of the great winter patterns of the last 35 years were seen 10+ days out. It is a weird deal, but modeling sometimes catches bigger events at range. We'll just have to see if we see any repeated of that.......for now, ensembles rule the roost.

The 6z Euro AIFS puts the forum area north of I-40 below zero. I need to check to see if snow is under that. No snow maps from it, but just have to look at each system and guess. I will post back in a second on this post - so hit refresh.

As crazy as those numbers look, we managed that during 14-15 IMBY. Ratios get crazy high during cold weather. I would think the mountains have an increasingly good shot at good snow. Valleys are always a crap shoot, but get decent cold in place and that is when we have a chance at good things. Ensemble snow amounts are generally what I look at for this range. The 0z Euro and 6z GFS all show various ways to score with cold air in place. The 0z Euro was a really good run BTW as John noted.

Here is the 6z GFS Kuchera. Overrunning event, couple of preceding/minor NW flow events, major NW flow event post big storm. This is the second maxed out run of the last four. Just to keep some measure of reality after looking at this, ensembles are 5-8" of snow over NE TN. It has been my experience that when we see decent ensembles over NE TN, that is usually a decent sign for other places as well.

I would think that might be it. I generally just use a web browser. Anyone from tapatalk care to answer?

The 6s GFS Kuchera would probably be in the top ten of weather model runs for NE TN.

The 8-14 Day Outlook depicts broad riding over the western CONUS, and comparatively stronger troughing over the eastern CONUS. This pattern is forecast to continue into the Weeks 3-4 period, with dynamical model predictions of 500-hPa heights generally favoring western CONUS ridging and eastern CONUS troughing. Though models broadly agree on this pattern, there are differences in the strength and positioning of the ridge and trough between the models. For example, JMA places the ridge center more off the West Coast, while ECMWF depicts the ridge center over the western CONUS. Moreover, there is run-to-run inconsistency with the positioning of the ridge in models, with some runs placing the ridge center off the West Coast and others over western CONUS. Both the differences between model forecasts of 500-hPa heights and the run-to-run inconsistencies lead to uncertainty in temperatures over the north central CONUS, as the solutions with the ridge over the western CONUS would favor eastward expansion of above normal temperatures, but those with the ridge placed off the West Coast would allow cold air from the north to cover a larger portion of the Great Plains and East. In addition to these model and run-to-run inconsistencies, the dynamical model forecasts of Week 4 feature a similar but much more muted pattern, particularly for the forecasted troughing. As such, the chances for below normal temperatures over the East are also weaker in Week 4. However, as a whole for the Weeks 3-4 period, an experimental equal weighted blend of CFS, ECMWF, JMA, GEFS, and the statistical MLR tool depicts weak ridging over the western third of the CONUS and comparatively stronger troughing over the eastern half of the CONUS. Given the expected continuation of the mid-level height pattern from the 8-14 Day period, the Weeks 3-4 Temperature Outlook depicts enhanced probabilities of above normal temperatures beneath favored ridging over the West, and enhanced probabilities of below normal temperatures beneath favored troughing over the East. Despite the weakening of the mid-level height pattern from week 3 to week 4, we expect the colder temperatures to persist particularly over the Southeast, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic where probabilities are highest. Probabilities of above normal temperatures are enhanced, reaching 60 to 70 percent, over parts of the West where there was the best agreement among dynamical models. Above normal temperatures are forecast over Alaska given dynamical model agreement and trends. Equal chances (EC) of above and below normal temperatures are featured over the central CONUS given uncertainty in the mid-level height pattern noted above. Above median precipitation is forecast over Southeastern Alaska, the Northwest, and along the East Coast of the CONUS supported by dynamical model forecasts. Probabilities are higher (reaching 60 to 70 percent) over Southeastern Alaska and parts of the Northwest where there was stronger agreement among models. However, we note some decrease in probabilities close to the West Coast due to the uncertainty in positioning of the forecasted ridging. In contrast, though most model solutions leaned toward above median precipitation along the East Coast, probabilities are overall weaker, with some disagreement over the Mid-Atlantic with JMA leaning toward below median precipitation and the other models leaning toward above median precipitation. Below median precipitation is forecast for the Southwest stretching eastward to the Gulf States and into parts of the Ohio Valley, supported by dynamical model forecasts. EC is indicated where model forecasts are weak or inconsistent.

Now, folks, this is an analog package right here (CPC d8-14). 1985 triple weighted.....and two of those dates are the mother load dates. Not my words, but theirs. The analogs in bold are extremely heavy hitters. I am probably not bought into the pattern enough to go with not one, not two, not three, not four...but five elite winters. Those winters are 5 star recruits. 19810104 19850118 19851221 19610120 19850109 20001231 19951229 19770117 19850123 19601221 And 1960-61 was the Kennedy inaugural snowstorm. @Daniel Booneor @John1122 was 1960-61 a good winter for the forum area? Just asking since CPC double weighted it. https://www.alabamawx.com/?p=67947

For sure. Larry sounded upbeat about an I-81/I-95 snow event for sure. Happy New Years to you all as well!!!

This is the big concern for me....

I think the likely outcome (Euro AIFS hints at this) is an ana front like we have seen in recent years.

With very cold air potentially entering the pattern, model mayhem (think about the commercial) might be underway.

I think I what we are seeing is deterministic modeling bouncing between a PNA and an EPO. I am sure the are having trouble with the double block.

wxbell algorithms…. 18z GFS deterministic… Jan 1, 3, 7, 10…light snow, light snow, ice/rain/snow, snow Plateau gets 6-11” total Kuchera with eastern valley locals at 2-6” total 18z ensemble. Similar events and similar totals though slightly less than the 12z maxed out run

Does the 18z run looks significantly different in wxbell than it does on Tropical Tidbits? It had a huge winter storm at the end of it on wxbell? It also had a marginal winter event earlier which doesn’t look the same on TT. I am out an about and tough to tell on an iPhone.

And the Weeklies do try to put the trough into the Mountain West towards the end of January. The interesting piece is that heights don't build and hold over the SE. That implies plenty of push from cold even if the trough lands in the front range of the Mountain West.

Today's Euro Weeklies' snapshots....

Yeah, man. I was thinking about you. Those wind chills went scorched earth on my yard.

I lived in Florida at the time...lived with the Philistines for a couple of years while my dad helped build EPCOT as an accountant for the mouse. For a winter lover, it was purgatory, but free tix were nice. Anyway, did Knoxville's ice storm occur during that year or the year before? The orange groves in Orlando froze both winters I was down there - wiped them completely out. Tenn beat Bama for the first time in my lifetime while I lived down there. When I lived in Knoxville prior, my next door neighbor was a Bama fan. I still feel a missed opportunity to rub it in some.

I will use the EPS which has lighter snows, but here are some of the windows I am looking at(surely not all verify, but here it is for score keeping purposes.). Chance for upslope at higher elevations. Northern stream pulse... Could be severe or could be ice or could be rain to snow or snow to rain. Choose your own adventure book right here. Best chance.... Another best chance. WAA?

I was thinking that this also reminds me a lot of 14-15. I am sure that probably gets me into trouble with ENSO(opposite of now), but just kind of has that look.....