Carvers Gap

This is a 360 map from the Euro AIFS - proceed with caution. It was super warm at 0z, but has rapidly cooled off. This is 12z. We will see what 18z has in a bit. It ended with a setup that was sending and Arcitc air mass straight down the middle of the Canadian Prairies - due south. I think we are going to have some northern stream smaller systems and maybe we get an STJ system. Clippers appear to embedded in this. I will add(very cautiously), sometimes BN precip can reflect snowfall areas...and sometimes it is just dry. With this type of look as a potential...no way modeling has the details even remotely worked out. That is confluence over the Tenn Valley right there. Northern MS to DC would be happy with that setup and 200 miles either side of that line IMHO. We'll see.... Dig up some great snowstorm maps. Looks a lot like that.

I don't know if this January is that time, but one day we are going to track another memorable pattern and maybe historic pattern. That is why we show up each winter. Give me that above, and let's roll. We need the Euro to stay in the fold overnight!

Still rolling.....EPO, NAO(but slightly east so no WAR), trough east of Hawaii(important). Anyone have any daily PDO numbers? I heard it was approaching neutral last week. That look right there opens up the potential for the PV to be trapped.

Man. Can you draw it up any better? This is the 18z GEFS. The Weeklies from this morning looks almost exactly like this as well, and is out to 1/15.

I am going to use the GEFS ext weeklies today since the 0z weeklies were so wonky(back to normal at noon...so hopefully not a trend). The 0z runs are what the Weeklies are derived from. So far, the GEFS ext is about halfway out....frigid for Jan 7-14 and colder than yesterday's run.

GFS Happy Hour rarely disappoints.

It will be interesting to see how things play out. Both the 12z Euro and GFS have multiple events ranging from small to boomers. The Euro has a slider and an anafront. The GFS has 2 sliders and the fantasy land big dog. I would look for some snow in he air by the 3rd or the 4th. For me in E TN, this definitely looks like a nickel and dime pattern...but the 12z Euro gives me a bit more confidence this pattern will deliver at some point. It really is going to depend on confluence. There is some 14-15 in how this looks. Lots of small pieces of energy rotating through the northern stream as the EPO really locks in.

Last nights Euro/EPS was strange. The multiple runs before it and the 12z run after it - not the same. Had to have been some model input or a week. The 12z ensembles are about as cold as you can get at this range. Big signal for a very cold air mass. I am like Bob Chill in the MA...just give the cold, and let's roll the dice so to speak.

Real feels are in the -10s for NE TN late in the 12z Euro.

To clarify…apparent temp changes. Below zero for most of TRI…single digit actual temps. 60 degrees colder for apparent and 40-50 degrees colder for actual temps.

The 0z Euro must have had something go sideways overnight - was really warm compared to the past gazillion runs. The 12z run was SIXTY degrees colder after 300!!!

12z Euro is thus far back to general continuity after a weird hiccup at 0z

Two small events and one bigger event. I suspect we nickel and dime this, but a bigger storm would have snow on the ground for a while if the pattern stays as cold as the GFS portrays. Is it right?

Pretty respectable 5-15” of snow over the eastern forum area for that run. TRI had 10-15”.

Nice storm on the 12z GFS after 300. Pretty typical of what ensembles have been showing the past few days on their snow maps.

Now I am in the correct thread. Pretty decent 12z GFS run incoming. The CMC is similar temp wise but without the wave. The past two Euro AIFS runs have picked up on the ridge that slides past after the first in a series of probable cold shots. I think the AIFS is far too aggressive in pushing the PNA into the western Plains. The GFS and CMC look like a good progression to me. Is the GFS back to normal…that IDK. I suspect that little wave eventually gets suppressed, but something to watch for future runs. The second cold shot could be a doozy.

GEFS ext 30d 500 map...AN heights over Alaska, AN heights over the Davis Straits(need that a little to the northwest IMHO), EPO ridge, trough east of Hawaii, trough pushing into the Aleutians, and trough in the eastern half of the US. If forced to find a negative, it is that the negative NAO is too strong. But if you go back and look at some decent winter patterns, they look a lot like this. FTR, I suspect the NAO is overdone, and the EPO is underdone.

The GEFS ext(Euro equivalent of the weeklies) is rolling right now. It is equally impressive.

This is old school stuff for sure. I have been super hesitant to post about it lately. I have been staring at maps similar to this for 2-3 weeks and trying to stay reasonably quiet about it. These are the cold analogs for January which most of us have discussed on this. I am not totally sure of the drivers of this(but analogs have precedence for it), but what worries me a bit more is that modeling is really beginning to lean colder. There are a lot of folks in the mountains who would struggle with a cold winter due to Helene. Hopefully, local agencies are gearing up. If it is a false alarm, so be it. But modeling has looked pretty wild today. We will see if it holds. Real feels in the mountains are below zero on a lot of these model runs.

Last of the maps for a bit. Pay attention to the AO map. That has been a missing piece during the past few winters. Here is the 18z GFS deterministic AO. If it goes there, game on......

This is the CFSv2 from 12z. This is for all of January. I actually like this a bit better as the confluence on this map is nearly perfect.

The Euro Weeklies continue w/ the goods for January....You can see the storm tracks - slider, cutters, inland runners, and Nor'easter's possible.

Details are understandably sketchy at this range, and modeling is accentuating differing pieces of energy. The 12z Euro managed to get this during the 12z suite(mostly a slider around 1/6).

Thought I would grab these and share. Do I trust the GFS or GEFS? Nope, but what a reversal! Here are some thoughts on the 18z GEFS. I have to say, the 12z Euro wasn't too far behind this. The CMC and GEPS were way colder. A lot of this is just now coming into focus. So, we will proceed with caution. But since most of us wait all summer to look at maps like this, it is fun to discuss. Pretty massive storm signals for early to mid January. Image 1: That time frame probably is going to have to be watched. The NAO is a bit forced, but it still works. Image 2: This is probably the best timeframe. PNA/EPO ridge. And...confluence. \ Image 3: The single day temps are frigid for an ensemble. It is worth noting that this is during our coldest month of the year. Those are ~10 degree below normal departures for a 7d time frame. Image 4: 12z GEFS snow map for d1-16. When the NE TN map gets to 5-6" of snow, probably best to pay attention on my part. It is Christmas, and I had planned on taking a break today. However, we have been blessed with some crazy fun stuff to discuss. So, the dishes are done, and I am sitting down to look at stuff for a bit!

That is a pretty insane analog package by CPC for d8-14. I have no idea if they are right, but thought it was worth a share as those folks at CPC get paid to do this.