Carvers Gap

wxbell algorithms…. 18z GFS deterministic… Jan 1, 3, 7, 10…light snow, light snow, ice/rain/snow, snow Plateau gets 6-11” total Kuchera with eastern valley locals at 2-6” total 18z ensemble. Similar events and similar totals though slightly less than the 12z maxed out run

Does the 18z run looks significantly different in wxbell than it does on Tropical Tidbits? It had a huge winter storm at the end of it on wxbell? It also had a marginal winter event earlier which doesn’t look the same on TT. I am out an about and tough to tell on an iPhone.

And the Weeklies do try to put the trough into the Mountain West towards the end of January. The interesting piece is that heights don't build and hold over the SE. That implies plenty of push from cold even if the trough lands in the front range of the Mountain West.

Today's Euro Weeklies' snapshots....

Yeah, man. I was thinking about you. Those wind chills went scorched earth on my yard.

I lived in Florida at the time...lived with the Philistines for a couple of years while my dad helped build EPCOT as an accountant for the mouse. For a winter lover, it was purgatory, but free tix were nice. Anyway, did Knoxville's ice storm occur during that year or the year before? The orange groves in Orlando froze both winters I was down there - wiped them completely out. Tenn beat Bama for the first time in my lifetime while I lived down there. When I lived in Knoxville prior, my next door neighbor was a Bama fan. I still feel a missed opportunity to rub it in some.

I will use the EPS which has lighter snows, but here are some of the windows I am looking at(surely not all verify, but here it is for score keeping purposes.). Chance for upslope at higher elevations. Northern stream pulse... Could be severe or could be ice or could be rain to snow or snow to rain. Choose your own adventure book right here. Best chance.... Another best chance. WAA?

I was thinking that this also reminds me a lot of 14-15. I am sure that probably gets me into trouble with ENSO(opposite of now), but just kind of has that look.....

I will add that for people in SE TN, this pattern has the ability to deliver if we can get anything going in the STJ. I know we don't get to talk snow for that areas as much lately....but we could see snow well south of where we normally see it if the cold verifies. This is the worst of the 7d 500 ensembles for January 4-11. That way I am not cherry picking. Normally, I would cherry pick this!

Image 1: Amazing to see the EPS(ensemble!) that cold. Image 2: 7 day mean...10F below normal for January is gonna be cold if that verifies. Image 3: I have been waiting for the EPS snow mean to show this. Image 4: Again, the Canadian model often does better in our area when it gets really cold. Shave off a few degrees, but it is decent. Image 5: The GEFS has consistently been throwing out decent snow totals for this time frame. And interestingly, as John noted yesterday, the Jan 10-20 range might be the better time frame for snow. When we see ensembles looking like this, that is a good signal for wintry precip.

I was expecting a toasty day today, but I am about to freeze my tail off in this wind! And yes, super interesting storm track. As you know well, these storm tracks aren't unprecedented, and we are overdue a good stretch of winter.

LOL. Of course it would!

This is just nasty....

The 12z GEFS/GEPS don't look too dissimilar regarding this....

The 12 CMC was on the "GFS light" plan. The Euro is gonna come in bone dry......LOL. Why? We have to have all options on the table after the 12z suite.

Ice storm - check Miller A - check Slider - check Clipper - check As John noted, that is probably a maxed out run, but it was fun to look at!

More....

Honestly, too many events to count on that run. Whatever you like, the 12z GFS was dishing it up. Been a minute since I have seen a run like that.

Well, that was a proper run, 12z GFS. One right after another.....

Interestingly for TRI, the airport made it to -21F just looking at records. The previous night was -16F. Those would obviously be all-time lows. The airport sits up on a knoll, and if memory serves me correctly, it didn't get as cold as other areas deeper/downstream in the valleys. I got to -26F in my local (southwest Virginia) with about 15mph winds(conservative estimate...drifts were 1-2')...so new scale would have me in the low -50s for WCs. NE TN got wicked cold. I have shared this before, but we were fixing pipes under my house in the middle of that. I also remember my dad putting a starter in our '72 Impala in the K-mart parking lot(now U-Haul). I have never been that cold since. Very rare weather set-up to bring a piece of the PV into the eastern valley. Interestingly, we have had some really cold wind chills during the past couple of years. Those wind chills would likely rival the mid 1980s. A good friend noted that we seem to be going below zero in the eastern valley a bit more after a long lull. Anyway, great conversation and a fun walk down memory lane. That all time record low can stay right where it is. LOL.

The 0z Euro is what has my attention in terms of cold....that lobe over southern Hudson Bay rotates down into SW VA. I have seen this on a few runs now in one form or another. The Euro, with the exception of yesterday's 0z, has had many of the coldest solutions. One could make a case that the worst of the cold is over by the 9th. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see the 10th - 20th have one more reload of this. To be fair, this is an operational model and probably shouldn't be used for details at this range. This is just an example. Most ensembles are picking up on a fairly strong cold shot between the 7th-9th being displaced decently southward into the Upper South. I could be an issue for agriculture in Florida as well if that verifies.

Yes, those are the folks I am thinking of specifically. Those are hardy folks. I don't want to cause more alarm than necessary, but the scenario is there for it to get really cold above 2500'. It isn't anything folks in those areas haven't seen before, but in a camper...those are different circumstances than previous winters. If roads get icy for extended amounts of time(can't get to them), that is the main concern.

That is awesome, man. I talked to someone over Christmas(who repairs construction equipment) who said the roads are still in pretty bad shape in some areas. Crews are doing massive amounts(mind boggling how much they have fixed) of work both on roads and getting people into housing...but it is a big lift in those areas. Most mornings I see convoys of concrete trucks and gravel heading that way.

It looks like the timing of the first of several cold front is late on January 1. The GEFS is a few hours slower. After that, I think we we see a series of cold fronts(warmth surging in between each front for 1-2 days), and then cold returning. The EPO ridge is in a place where it can deliver very cold air. Right now, the 0z Euro is the coldest. The ensembles aren't warm. To be clear, I don't see 1985 cold air on the map. If we were to get snow on the ground prior to a cold front moving in, I would imagine below zero temps would be possible and even probable in some locations. Real feels could be rough with a couple of these cold fronts. I think the potential is there for the cold to run from Jan 2nd to roughly the 20th. Then the trough tries to work back into the Mountain West. I know many are saying the game is up by then. That might be correct, but cold is somehow (assuming the upcoming cold verifies) finding its way into the East against some pretty stacked analogs(though a smaller cold analog group exists for January which is completely opposite of the warm analogs). If the NAO were to fire into February, it isn't unthinkable that the cold moves into the Mountain West and still manages to find its way eastward. Some Weeklies ext runs are showing that. It is always possible or a reversal on modeling. That seems to have been the norm during the past few years. However, the first cold front is well within range now. Even on the Apple weather app, the first cold shot is present. So, the cold is just on Weeklies maps. It is within ten days. Counting today, we have about five more days before the cold returns.