Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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I have come to a similar conclusion, but I am just model watching!!! LOL. The GEFS ext actually looks better than the Euro Weeklies tonight which is a BIG change. That EPO/PNA ridge looks like the default for at least the first two months of winter. That trough will try to go into the Mountain West for February, but as those wavelengths shorten up...that trough will kick eastward 1-2 times. I like the setup. I did not like the setup prior to October. However, that colder set of analogs is maybe going to make some noise for Jan 5-20. No promises at this range, but fun to watch. Great share.
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I just want a good East coast blizzard to track.
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Cumberland Plateau has been like tornado alley lately. Ya'll can keep those babies over there! LOL - sort of LOL.
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12z EPS shows the beginning of what should be BN heights over the SE for an extended time....~3 weeks. Cold begins to fill the trough at the end of week one of Jan. Good to see ensembles with that look.
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That last week should be warm enough to get us slightly above average. The month as a whole will have been below average for temps. So, I don't sweat averages. Slight above average in E TN has meant decent winter weather at times. Either way, both the 12z Euro and GFS are starting to advertise a sharp cool down after the new year. Hopefully (and I think it is), what we are seeing is the beginnings of 2-3 weeks of cold temps to start January. I think week two into week three will be the coldest if weeklies(both GEFS and Euro) are correct. As for Europe getting cold, that is generally a good sign for the eastern US as that correlates to colder temps. I think we are gonna be just fine this winter. I could be wrong. The only thing one really has to be careful of....is whether this upcoming warmup is longer than advertised. That has happened during recent winters. I do think it lasts around a week this time. The strat warm stuff can really cause havoc in modeling. Again, I think we come up good this time around. The good thing is that we can see the cool down already starting to peak around the corder at d14-16.
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All of E TN is roughly 2 degreesF BN. Today will put a dent into that, but we should recover some of that by this weekend. I don't know that I want the TPV getting broken up, but we may be left with no choice in the matter - looks to me like the GFS has some pretty significant warming is taking place between 10-50mb. At 50mb, it gets jostled pretty good. Again, I don't want it wrapped up tight at high latitudes....but seems like (of late) the predominance of cold goes to Asia w/ a split. But that is pretty strong warming on the 12z GFS. My guess(stress guess) is that warming may well be a precursor to a -NAO later in January. Warming between 10-50mb seems to be the dashboard warning light for that during the past several years. Again, not sure I want to see the NAO fire just yet as well. January looks pretty decent without too many bells and whistles.
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This seems to be a winter where we just get lots of little snows, but those winters can prove to be decently satisfying as there is plenty to track. TRI has 1.1" of snow for December, and that is not bad against climatology(even older climatology). Nickels and dimes....
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I think we take this....The 500 looks really good BTW on a week by week basis. The GEFS ext also looks similar. The locked-in torch was my concern before winter. Again, this leans towards colder analogs. January won't be a slam dunk until Jan 31st!!! Lots of uncertainty, but that ridge out West(eastern Pac) seems to really want to be there. A little Easter egg at the end of this...how sweet it would be to hold that through Jan, and then the NAO fires for February(when it is less likely to hook into an eastern ridge).
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Definitely could be overrunning. 93-94 and 95-96 (light versions) are on the table. Those are big analogs, and I am holding back using them for the moment, but they are in the mix. BN temps during our coldest weeks often works out pretty good. Once I see operationals picking this up, I will feel like this dog is gonna hunt.
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The 18z GFS fires the first operational shots of cold around the New Year. It is prob a bit fast, but that will do.
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Best I can tell, it looks like a strong cold front is being signaled for sometime between Jan 3-5.
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The Euro Weeklies Control run was just frigid. That is the first time in a while that I have seen the control reflect the ensemble. Good run.
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LOL. I am glad I asked.
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CPF is maybe something-Pacific-forcing? What is the entire acronym? Central Pacific Forcing?
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The 12zGFS finally sees what should be....it is cold in early January somewhere in North America. All kidding aside, it looks like the warmup will last from Christmas Day to just around the New Years. It wouldn't surprise me to see it go into the first week of January. The Weeklies (Euro and American) depict a fairly strong cold shot from say Jan 5 - Jan 20th(or just beyond). That is right where we want it. This is how I remember winters as a kid. We would get some minor snow and cold during December(remember I lived in Knoxville during the 70s), and then Jan/Feb were when we expected winter to really do some things. The weather pattern really seems to want to park a ridge where the EPO or PNA regions are. That seems to be the pattern tipping its hand. I do think the trough is going to try to get back into the Mountain West. They have had a really good week of winter weather this week. They will likely see more, but likely us as well. By Christmas, we will have been in the cold pattern since the last week of November. That is about four weeks. Very tough to hold cold at this latitude longer than that. I think we see a warm-up and the cold return shortly after the New Year. I really don't sweat the cold getting scoured out of North America due to a chinook. Chinooks happen. That is why there is a name for it. I imagine if you lived along the eastern foothills of the Rockies for most of the last millennium, a chinook would have been a welcome thing! North America can refill with cold air quite quickly, sometimes within 5-7 days.
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I think we are gonna be in good shape when all is said and done.
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The real question is whether people in Miami are pulling for equal chances!
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The Euro Weeklies bring the trough back during the first week of January. That look connects really well to the 12z EPS run...meaning if you took the EPS, the Weeklies would pick up right where the EPS left off. That is decent continuity.
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The 12z GEPS and 12z Euro are showing the pattern reset advertised by the Euro extended modeling right around the New Year.
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The Euro Weeklies ext look pretty exceptional today for January cold - really. We can deal with that look all day long. IMHO, that is very 95-96 or 93-94.
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This kind of seems like we see the cold hit in pieces prior to Christmas, get a 7-10 warm-up, very cold shot during second and third week of January, warm-up, and then Feb ?????. If this is like 95-96, we will see one more shot in Feb. 18z GFS doesn't look terrible.
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2024-2025 Winter Ideas and Discussion
Carvers Gap replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, sets up nicely for the second and third week of Jan. Then, probably will have to deal with a rotation through the warm phases for the last ten days or say....then maybe we can score a repeat for mid Feb. -
I am just watching this big hp around the 21-22nd. If it stays at that strength, I would be really surprised if some in the forum area don't see at least minor accumulations of snow w/ either a slider, clipper, and/or inland runner. We live in the Upper South, so there plenty of ways to miss...but that is a good setup. Looks like maybe a warm-up after that, but the warm-up has been getting pushed back quite a bit. I do think a western chinook is on tap and spread eastward. Looks like maybe cold returns after the first week of January...and that might be true winter at that point.
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The 12z CMC has a similar setup. Are we gonna call that a bowling ball low which just kind of meanders its way through the Upper South?
