Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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The 12z GFS completely caves yet again. In fact, it almost pops a coastal storm during the same time it stubbornly had a storm over the Four Corners! It looks like most of our peak winter climatology will be reserved for likely cold weather. TRI sits at -1.3F BN through Dec 23rd. That departure will probably sneak slightly AN by the end of the month of December. January may will mirror December in terms of temp pattern progression. Sure looks to me like the cold January analogs are going to win the first three weeks of January. Could that change? Sure! Enjoy!
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And this is why I don't sweat chinooks....and it is probably why Native Americans liked them and had a specific name for the event. In some translations it is "snow eater." Within just 10-11 days, the snow eater is vanquished on this model run. That is how quickly things can change. I grew up watching temps from International Falls, and guessing how long it would take to get cold in Tennessee.
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Now, that is a trough.
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The 6z EURO AIFS has the first cold front arriving early(edit) on January 1st.
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The 6z Euro AIFS (can be hit or miss) is very cold. 15-20 degree BN departures during January is noteworthy if it verifies.
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Looks like the GFS has finally sobered up after a week long bender to the tropics - i.e. it and its ensemble sees the cold now. I do think it might have been right that the second cold front around the 7-8th will be stronger. However, it now sees the cold front around the 3rd, and probably was badly wrong with that. Technically, there is also probably a cold front on NYE, but that one isn't overly cold. Overnight ensembles look in decent agreement. I do think we will have some warm-ups between cold shots. It looks like chances for wintry precip are increasing. Details at this range will be largely inaccurate, but there should be some fun model runs.
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Ultimately, all models are getting to the same place which is a very cold North American continent. The 12z Euro AI looks like a good compromise. I have seen multiple comments across forums about the NA chinook wrecking January, and that it would take weeks to recover. That looks to be very incorrect. Look at the 18z GFS and the 12z ECMWF AIFS, and you will see how quickly NA can cool off. The Euro control is brutally cold FWIW. While I think there are concerns, I think we will find ourselves in a pretty cold pattern by the end of the first week of January. That has been a pretty consistent point seen by modeling for several weeks. The GFS definitely moved towards other modeling at 18z. I suspect we see some sort of cutoff in the southwest, but the good thing about that....cutoffs in that area can often kick out and create good things here.
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The GFS is just slower by about 5-7 days at this point. It has been about a week behind on January for a while. Now, the one think to watch is it is trying to tuck a trough under a PNA/EPO ridge. That can happen, and we have seen it happen recently. There is a very slight trend in afternoon modeling to slow the trough in the Southwest, but again, I think the 12z GFS was and is an outlier. The 18z GFS has moved that trough along a bit more, but still leaves it back enough that the next trough digs right where it was.
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@AMZ8990, if I was in you neck of the woods, I would be feeling pretty good about a winter storm in January.
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12z EPS is a beaut, Clark. To the 12z GFS, the sh$%$@ers full, bud. The Euro Weeklies are even beautifuler. But after watching the Vols against Ohio State, I feel this is a week to have my affairs in order. Interestingly, it was the GFS which was too warm at range for Columbus. It stalled a cold front erroneously at range. The Canadian and Euro were better if memory serves me correctly. But the GFS was so freaking bad, I was afraid to say(about ten days out) that Columbus was going to be cold.
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Looks like some really cold air is about to enter North America. Remember the LR modeling that completely erased cold in NA??? Looking more and more that was an error(missed the refill). That type of severe cold is going to wreck havoc on modeling. Good times! LOL
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I have done this dance with the GFS too many times. Sometimes it scores a coup. To me it looks like it has feedback over the southwest which causes the following trough to dig there. Its ensemble still brings a lot of cold eastward by the 7-8th. That timing difference has been there off and on. Everything else has a cold front coming in by the 3rd. The GFS kind of hops between the 3rd and the next front around the 7th or 8th.
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Right now it is just the GFS…..which has had problems of late.
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Best I can tell the GFS is getting hung up in the Southwest. I really deepens that storm, and thus pops a ridge in front as it digs. That could happen. Cutoffs in the Southwest are a legit feature, and they are also a legit model flaw. I don't see any other model doing that at the moment. The AIFS at 6z just rolled it on through as did the 12z CMC. Something to watch as the GFS sometimes will pick up on trends, but it has been woeful at times at being completely bling to cold fronts. The current GFS is very similar to the old Euro in terms of warm bias and things getting hung-up in the Southwest. Again, it is worth watching. That looks more like it really brings the cold with the second front around the 7th. The 6z AIFS was glacier worthy.
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I could be wrong, but the GFS looks in error. It has been doing this off and on for the last 7-10 days(same time frame). The issue is that it digs into the southwest and holds. That is a plausible feature, but it still kicks out. The GFS is basically about 4-5 days slower than other modeling. Its own ensemble really doesn't support it....though it is still running right now. It might be a sign that we are seeing some can kicking, but I am going to need to see some other modeling hint at it. For now, the GFS is an outlier even in its own camp.
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Never can rule out a can kick in this area! However, generally we begin to see signs by now if that was to occur. I do agree that we need to get it inside of d10. However, the cold is on deterministic models. When I get skiddish is when the Weeklies solutions continue to get pushed back and never really show up on the d1-16 models. The thing that gives me confidence(rightly or wrongly) the ridge really wants to go out West. We will probably understand that more once the pattern verifies(if it verifies) after winter. For the ski slopes, I am super happy for them.
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To echo John …the 12z GEPS and GEFS are about as cold as ensembles can get in the d10-15. Wow. Crazy to look at on Tropical Tidbits.
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This gives you an idea of how cold the air mass is that we are looking at for part of January....or all of it. When we start seeing snowstorms into the Florida Panhandle, that shows how strong the air mass "could" be.
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Pretty rare to see the EPS with 10-11 degree BN departures. 12z has it over the TN Valley forum. I would say at this point, the ingredients for a major snowstorm are beginning to show up on modeling for Jan5-20. That is right smack in the middle of our coldest climatology. To get those types of departures during our coldest time of the year is impressive.
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We may see temps below zero, especially at higher elevations. BN temps are COLD during January. That is an overrunning setup if I have ever seen one. I am not saying that is here, but somewhere east of the MS. The GFS brings portion of the eastern valley into low single digits with no snow on the ground. That is what the Weeklies have been hinting at.
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The 12z GFS is on board now. Complete cave, and maybe even more extreme than other modeling. As for how things are set up right now, I really don't mind it. I have had snow in the air for the past two days - more days than I can count so far. It is important in this area to remember that winter really doesn't start here (historically) until late December and early January in the valleys. So, I couldn't be happier with how the season has begun. Looks like a 7-10 day warmup beginning on Christmas. Then, it sure looks like the bottom comes out. Deterministic models are now seeing the cold which is what we want to see in deterministic models. Ensembles have it. Good connections. That ridge really wants to stay out west. Honestly, we all may want a break towards the end of January should all of that verify. Pattern looks pretty loaded at 12z(GFS).
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If that high latitude setup manages to trap the PV, could get interesting. I have not seen that yet, but it could with that setup.
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Spitting flakes In Sullivan Co this evening. Man, it is freaking cold. The WC is just a wee bit chilly!
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The GEFS went from worst to first in about four runs today as it again caves to the EPS/GDPS models. If we keep it in the old tomorrow, very good sign. That sucker has a monster AK ridge and a -NAO. Fingers crossed. As we have seen during the past few years, that look can go very wrong(WAR city), but as is....nice run.
