Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Lots of schools closed up here this morning. I would say I have an 1.5-2" of snow on the table out back.
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Pretty good thump here IMBY...probably between .5-0.75" of snow. Nice band hit which overperformed. It snowed yesterday as well w/ no accumulation. We had the trace a few days back. That is three times it has snowed so far. Good start.
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Light snow IMBY.
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This is a sample of what I am looking at. The Euro Weeklies today showed a the trough returning for the last part of December and into January. My guess is that it is a little quick with bringing the trough back after the mid Dec warm-up. However, after a back-and-forth pattern to end December and begin Jan, it drops the hammer. The first two images are the control for the first two weeks of January, and this fits with the colder Nina analogs. The last image is the CFSv2 for January. They look a lot alike. The Euro Weeklies ensemble is very similar to the control, but more smoothed. if I hadn't centered the time increments for Jan1-8 and 9-16, you would also seem some twenty below normal temps. We are approaching the coldest time of the year in January, so anything below normal works.
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The Euro Weeklies continue to show a trough that really does not want to tuck into the West for more than a week - still not sure why that is, but we will take it. I think we get a ridge from say Dec16-22. It could last through the 27-28th. Then, I think we go into a back and forth pattern very similar to some of the colder La Ninas. I don't think it is a full blown cold pattern, but I would be surprised if it was a full blown warm pattern. It sort of just looks like a normal winter pattern.
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Thunder in the mountains....
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I think we will have chances. I have seen a lot worse on LR modeling in the past. Even transient cold during Jan can score here.
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Some LE snow for the Buffalo vs SF game if you need some mood flakes. They are under a decent band.
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If u look at the pattern above. We are projected to be at in a bit of a retrograding pattern. That means “upstream” is to our east in simplistic terms. On that last slide above, see everything work backwards...and the next trough is loaded on the last slide in the North Atlantic. We have seen retrograding patterns during many recent Niña winters.
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This is the Weeklies run from today in seven day increments....Looks like the ridge has a shelf life of 7-12 days. Then, we see the pattern reload. The tendency is to place the coldest air over the Mountain West, but our forum area is still chilly at the surface. That leads me to think cold slides from Montana into our area while fighting a SER of uncertain strength. It looks like a weak La Nina pattern....there is room for cold to spill eastward.
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I tend to agree w/ Burg's assessment. I am not seeing the same signs of a long term torch. There are some elements in the LR for sure, but there are probably more elements of the trough returning after 7-10 days of warmth at the most. I can't get Twitter inserted into this post(if anyone knows how....speak up!). HIs thoughts are similar to mine. Here is the link. https://x.com/burgwx/status/1863223397200601198
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The Euro Weeklies LR ext run today was decent. I thought after this morning's run, it would be lousy. Nope. Good run. Warm air displaces the cold for a couple 7-12 days starting in mid Dec, then the trough builds back into NA. West of the Apps...not a bad look.
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Moderate snow showers in Gray this afternoon.
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Cold shots IMHO tend to las 2-3 weeks if we are lucky, even during good years. Modeling definitely shows a break just after mid-month to just before New Years. Then, it gets sketchy.
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Webb IMHO often kind of goes with the flow. He severely missed last winter’s cold around Christmas if I remember correctly, almost taunting people with tweets. January is a massive wild card in analogs IMHO. Mark Reynolds noted it. The analogs I looked at had the two polar-opposite families of analogs. Right now, it “appears” the colder variety might have the edge. I am pretty uncomplicated in the long range while depending on on ENSO, PDO, analogs, and weeklies’ modeling. I really don’t know much other than doing some minimal research. I don’t look at mountain torque and TNH like I should. I “think” that EPO ridge really wants to be negative for reasons I don’t completely understand. So far, this winter fits climatology. Cold or warm, January also fits analog packages. I haven’t really changed my thoughts on that. This winter just seems like it has some post Jan 1 cold shots in play. Some weak La Niña winters have been predominantly warm until cold shots hit.
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Euro Weeklies look good. The warmup is temporary and trough returns eastward. We’ll see if that is right, but I suspect it is...
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Nah, man. You don’t jinx stuff. We are always at risk of cutters, especially this time of year. I like the aggressiveness. You are one of us with that type of call.
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I think we need to keep an eye on the storm window shown on the GFS during the past several runs, and that is the one which Jeff mentioned. It looks formidable. It could cut per the Euro, or it could be a slider and a Miller A. All options are on the table including snow for southern parts of our forum area. Remember when I talked about January being kind of an unknown wildcard in regards this winter. LR ext modeling (weeklies) looks pretty chilly for the part of January which is shown(first week or two). The CFSv2 was very cold on this morning's run for January. The can 100% be wrong at this range, but it is worth noting. That would be a very cold pattern during our climatologically coldest part of the year.
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The 6z GFS was the best run of the year. Just now commenting on it...cause 8 OTs just about did me in.
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The 18z GFS continues to honk. Good looking run. We take the location of those storms and roll the dice 10/10x.
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Definitely condolences to the Daniel Boone family. Hang in there, ya’ll.
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This kind of has the feel of a winter which "should" put the trough in the Mountain West, but for whatever reason, is going to have a really difficult time doing so. Looks for the East something like a flip-flopping (ridge/trough) pattern might be the base, but I am not ready to commit to that yet. It certainly has that look on the Weeklies.
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The Euro LR ex(weeklies) is having a surprisingly difficult time sticking and holding the trough out West. The pattern breaks down after just a few days when it tries later in December.
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Ok, who is posting the map?!
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Lots of volatility moving forward. A colder pattern looks in place through just before Christmas, then it warms, and then????? I think we see a fairly quick return to cold during January. I don't know that the base pattern for winter has show itself. Weak La Nina winters tend to have some warm interludes with very sharp cold shots. If those cold shots time with precip, we could be in business during portions of Jan and early Feb.
