Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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If u look at the pattern above. We are projected to be at in a bit of a retrograding pattern. That means “upstream” is to our east in simplistic terms. On that last slide above, see everything work backwards...and the next trough is loaded on the last slide in the North Atlantic. We have seen retrograding patterns during many recent Niña winters.
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This is the Weeklies run from today in seven day increments....Looks like the ridge has a shelf life of 7-12 days. Then, we see the pattern reload. The tendency is to place the coldest air over the Mountain West, but our forum area is still chilly at the surface. That leads me to think cold slides from Montana into our area while fighting a SER of uncertain strength. It looks like a weak La Nina pattern....there is room for cold to spill eastward.
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I tend to agree w/ Burg's assessment. I am not seeing the same signs of a long term torch. There are some elements in the LR for sure, but there are probably more elements of the trough returning after 7-10 days of warmth at the most. I can't get Twitter inserted into this post(if anyone knows how....speak up!). HIs thoughts are similar to mine. Here is the link. https://x.com/burgwx/status/1863223397200601198
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The Euro Weeklies LR ext run today was decent. I thought after this morning's run, it would be lousy. Nope. Good run. Warm air displaces the cold for a couple 7-12 days starting in mid Dec, then the trough builds back into NA. West of the Apps...not a bad look.
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Moderate snow showers in Gray this afternoon.
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Cold shots IMHO tend to las 2-3 weeks if we are lucky, even during good years. Modeling definitely shows a break just after mid-month to just before New Years. Then, it gets sketchy.
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Webb IMHO often kind of goes with the flow. He severely missed last winter’s cold around Christmas if I remember correctly, almost taunting people with tweets. January is a massive wild card in analogs IMHO. Mark Reynolds noted it. The analogs I looked at had the two polar-opposite families of analogs. Right now, it “appears” the colder variety might have the edge. I am pretty uncomplicated in the long range while depending on on ENSO, PDO, analogs, and weeklies’ modeling. I really don’t know much other than doing some minimal research. I don’t look at mountain torque and TNH like I should. I “think” that EPO ridge really wants to be negative for reasons I don’t completely understand. So far, this winter fits climatology. Cold or warm, January also fits analog packages. I haven’t really changed my thoughts on that. This winter just seems like it has some post Jan 1 cold shots in play. Some weak La Niña winters have been predominantly warm until cold shots hit.
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Euro Weeklies look good. The warmup is temporary and trough returns eastward. We’ll see if that is right, but I suspect it is...
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Nah, man. You don’t jinx stuff. We are always at risk of cutters, especially this time of year. I like the aggressiveness. You are one of us with that type of call.
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I think we need to keep an eye on the storm window shown on the GFS during the past several runs, and that is the one which Jeff mentioned. It looks formidable. It could cut per the Euro, or it could be a slider and a Miller A. All options are on the table including snow for southern parts of our forum area. Remember when I talked about January being kind of an unknown wildcard in regards this winter. LR ext modeling (weeklies) looks pretty chilly for the part of January which is shown(first week or two). The CFSv2 was very cold on this morning's run for January. The can 100% be wrong at this range, but it is worth noting. That would be a very cold pattern during our climatologically coldest part of the year.
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The 6z GFS was the best run of the year. Just now commenting on it...cause 8 OTs just about did me in.
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The 18z GFS continues to honk. Good looking run. We take the location of those storms and roll the dice 10/10x.
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Definitely condolences to the Daniel Boone family. Hang in there, ya’ll.
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This kind of has the feel of a winter which "should" put the trough in the Mountain West, but for whatever reason, is going to have a really difficult time doing so. Looks for the East something like a flip-flopping (ridge/trough) pattern might be the base, but I am not ready to commit to that yet. It certainly has that look on the Weeklies.
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The Euro LR ex(weeklies) is having a surprisingly difficult time sticking and holding the trough out West. The pattern breaks down after just a few days when it tries later in December.
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Ok, who is posting the map?!
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Lots of volatility moving forward. A colder pattern looks in place through just before Christmas, then it warms, and then????? I think we see a fairly quick return to cold during January. I don't know that the base pattern for winter has show itself. Weak La Nina winters tend to have some warm interludes with very sharp cold shots. If those cold shots time with precip, we could be in business during portions of Jan and early Feb.
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The 12z GFS is cooking something up around 180.
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I think operational modeling is under-doing d8-16 temps.
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For now, I am sticking with ensembles in the d7-16 range. Operational modeling has trended warmer for the past couple of days. Wild swings like that tend to signal very cold air beginning to work its way into the pattern. That type of low level, Arctic air wrecks complete havoc on modeling. Ensembles OTH are quite cold with little change to the EPO ridge and downstream EC trough. I thought I would add the graphic below just for kicks and giggles. This is the Euro control from the Weeklies run this afternoon. It probably doesn't have much(if any) skill. But what is interesting is that if North America gets that cold, the MJO won't matter nearly as much. It will simply mean "less cold" as it goes through warm phases, i.e. just different variations of cold. One final note, modeling will often be too quick with cold, and then bring the hammer later. The above map shows "what could" happen as we see a very La Nina temp structure for North America, but cold just overwhelms the pattern. It has been a long time since we have seen cold that encompassing over NA. Again, it is just an example of one pathway that the weather could take. There are many, many options on the table for that timeframe, especially at this range.
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I concur.
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Good info. JB says the MJO warm tax will have to get paid after Dec 20. If the Niña comes to pass, prob more cold finds its way here per JB. Typical Nina winters have periods of warm accentuated by severe cold.
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Thanks for the info on the AIFS. I have been meaning to ask how good it is. I never know what to think of it. It has a little bit of DGEX in it, but it has been really decent during the recent weeks I have been following it - I really have just started to use it.
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The 12z ECMWF AIFS is picking up on a really cold shot around the Dec 8-10. That would be a second very cold shot in addition to the Dec 2-6 timeframe. The CPC maps this afternoon are dark purple for temps for this area. Apparent temps during the second cold shot are showing up in the single digits for valleys and below zero for mountains. I would almost think and ana front is probably going to be embedded within future models runs at some point. That cold means business.
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Pretty clear signal in LR ext models of the ridge retrograding into the Aleutians, ridge tucking into the Mountain West, and SER establishing around the first week of January. Now, that is a LONG way out there. However, that fits climatology and fits the recent Nina winters. I have my suspicions as to whether that can hold long term. It is likely a January thaw with winter returning later that month. This pattern coming up has an almost extreme EPO ridge, and that is not sustainable as a long term pattern. The ridges and troughs need to be flatter. JB mentioned today that there should be some upwelling of cooler water in the ENSO regions which should bring La Nina into play. We want that. We don't want a Nada which is "dud winter territory" for this area. If we can get the weak La Nina, I think we see more cold later in winter. For now, it looks like cold through roughly December 20th(give or take 3-4 days), then seasonal as the trough retrogrades, then a return flow from the GOM due to incoming HP, and then a great big question mark. So, I think we have a pretty good idea of cold duration now. I think!
