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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC "almost" pops an inland runner Miler A. The GFS is more of an Ohio Valley special which deepens and pushes NW flow into the area. Either way, chances are increasing that higher elevations across the Plateau and Apps are gonna see some snowfall during that timeframe. I wouldn't be surprised to see some snow showers in the valleys of E TN.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Ya'll, I am not seeing big changes in ensembles at all. Maybe I need to go back and look more carefully. Operational runs are going to swing wildly with a potential pattern change in the works. Also, it is worth noting that storms in the 7 day range tend to disappear and then reappear. 18z GFS is a pretty robust late, fall system. We take that in a heartbeat.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Evaporating snow chances in the Upper South are a way of life. Gotta be tough at this latitude. Welcome to the show! Let's see what becomes of it. We are kind of in that window where things get lost. But Boone probably is correct that our best chances are on northwest flow - if that. Looks like the cold front is out of sync with the GOM system. As long as it isn't 85 degrees in November anymore, I can live with that change. LOL. ...all of my wife's family is from around Canton.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Right. I think our best chance is probably a northwest flow event. Even that is not guaranteed. Given the record warmth that we have experienced during October and start of November, it is startling to see such a strong cold front bust up the heat ridge over the East.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Really, really nice upslope event on the 12z CMC.
  6. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS just about got it.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro has found the cold....that is gonna leave a mark.
  8. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS and CMC are threatening to drop the hammer - meaning starting winter east of the Rockies. That is a big time trough which is getting carved out. That storm is likely going to impact the hemispheric wx pattern afterwards.
  9. Carvers Gap
    The elements are there for a big phase. Timing is a hair off right now on modeling.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Yes, I have thought for a while that something is "off" in LR ext modeling. For now, I tend to lean warm for winter on average, but as I have noted, I am not overly confident in that. If we flip cold for December, I think we generally follow La Nina climatology with January being a wild card month since it may turn out to be a weak signal. If Nina gets stronger, January is likely warm. That weak signal is trouble in LR forecasting IMO. In my thinking, Dec would be the cooler of the three winter months. January would be a "strong lean" warm. February would be warm. Modeling does seem to be coming around to December being cooler relative to the rest of winter. PDO probably still rules the roost, but we'll see. The winter where it got crazy cold right at Christmas with that Ana-front, and then winter (for eastern areas) went away. That might be a good analog. In the winter thread, I used two analogs. Dec and Feb played nice. January is one extreme or the other. I know there is a correlation between cool Novembers and colder winters. However, with AN rainfall for portions of fall and a late lasting hurricane season...something makes me think that connects to a colder winter for us. There are some mixed signals for sure, but I tend to lean warmer than average for DJF and feel confident about that. What I am not confident about is that we get a really good cold shot that makes us not remember the AN temps. Plateau (and westward) could have a different solution than what is mentioned above. The further west in the forum that one goes...the better chances for sustained winter. But, a weak La Nina will sometimes have cold shots push all of the way into the eastern valley and into the western Piedmont. I think the MJO probably drives the bus again....I don't think it will be favorable for long amounts of time as the dateline will have BN SSTs.
  11. Carvers Gap
    There it is - again. The Holy Grail of snow tracking is having a late season, tropical storm get entrained into a strong cold front. We have had it happen twice during the past 15 years. The GFS is flirting with it...
  12. Carvers Gap
    There it is....
  13. Carvers Gap
    Still pretty fluid. I think models are sensing a pretty significant pattern change. I doubt they have anything nailed down. I like the direction today!
  14. Carvers Gap
    This is a 30 day control map from the Euro Weeklies ext (now daily);
  15. Carvers Gap
    Week leading up to Thanksgiving...
  16. Carvers Gap
    Considering we have had some days 10-20F AN, an ensemble showing this is gonna be a shock to the system if it verifies. Those cold temps swing through and seasonal temps are left in its wake. Considering the time of year, those temps are chilly.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Pretty big pattern reshuffle showing up on the Euro Weeklies ext. This is similar to the massive headfake during early fall when modeling showed it cooling down despite overwhelming climatology which supported extended summer. We all know what the reality was. Now, it appears modeling may well (after depicting a warm start to winter) be backing off that warm start...climatology supports a cold start(cooler start). What I don't know is if modeling is sensing a pattern change....we are WAAAY overdue. The Euro Weeklies ext shift the ridge out West w/ what appears to be a ridge bellying east underneath a shallow eastern trough(edi). What I think is likely occurring is that modeling is not done transitioning to a colder eastern pattern for late Nov and December. We will see.
  18. Carvers Gap
    All kinds of trough amplification in the East on the 12z GFS run w/ a decent Noreaster as well. I have to think the GFS is starting to dial that in. There are players on the field for a decent snowstorm in the East. I know it sounds like blasphemy with it being so warm, but that is a pretty massive trough showing up on about 2/3 of the last two days GFS runs.
  19. Carvers Gap
    6z has the amplification yet again. That is is gonna hurt. Snow showers on that run - kind of upslope looking.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Still flirting w/ a significant trough amplification over the East. That has some possibility. Just something to watch.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Wind chills during the afternoon of Nov 22.....
  22. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS....As soon as I talk about the lack of amplification. Boom. LOL. Highs barely getting above freezing during the last 1/4 of that run. That'll leave a mark!!!!
  23. Carvers Gap
    The interesting thing is that the CANSIPS and Euro seasonal miss on cold quite often - blind to it. The GFS will often sniff out a pattern change well in advance in uncanny fashion. The Euro Weeklies ext control has something similar. Now, the control can sniff out a cold pattern where the ensemble will not.
  24. Carvers Gap
    I know this runs against the recent conversational grain a bit, but this scenario has been a nagging one for the past 4-6 weeks for me. The longer this warmth lasts into December, the more likely it pushes a likely cold snap into the coldest climo of the year. I don't think this warmth lasts through winter. Chances are, it could flip very quickly. Anyway, this fits weak La Nina climatology. This will probably be different tomorrow, but a massive EPO ridge w/ a weak NAO block is a couplet to be watched.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Some movement in LR modeling after d10. That week 2-3 return to seasonal looks promising. Talking 5-7 days in duration before the torch returns. There really is a lack of amplification in the Lower 48. That really prevents troughs from swinging eastward as there is now trough to swing. Week 2-3 of Nov does have some amplification. Today is as warm as I have ever felt early November. It felt like mid-summer. Thermometer on the car read 86 which is insane for this time of year. Mornings are very warm.
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