Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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That EPO ridge just wants to hit and hold. It is a bit surprising to see modeling that adamant, but I am sure there is some decent science behind it. It really looks like the base pattern on LR modeling. I know that is John's favorite pattern and for good reason. I hope it holds. I like the NAO, but this is a year it could easily hook into a SER...so, we want it quiet this year.
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In the longer range, this is kind of what I am monitoring. I "think" that if the first half of January goes cold, we might be looking at some colder analogs going forward from their. 95-96"(light version) is an analog which is working well of late. I am NOT calling for that kind of winter. But I wouldn't rule out something like this...a couple more cold shots, warm-up around Christmas, step down cold through the third week of Jan, thaw, early Feb cold, warm last half of Feb, and then March cools back down. January looks a lot like this on the Euro Weeklies w/ some ridging bellying underneath from the southwest. My guess is that we see a pretty variable pattern which normally works well here during January.
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This may well be cold chasing rain. However, if the low backs a little due that leeside low which is showing up on short range modeling, I could see higher elevations on the Plateau, SE KY, SW VA, and areas above 2000' in E TN doing OK. Morristown seems to have a knack for scoring lately. My inlaws live there, and they often do as well as we do in NE TN!
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MRX afternoon disco... Wednesday: A significant influx of dry air will introduce a much colder airmass early Wednesday, causing temperatures to decline throughout the day. The highest temperature on Wednesday is likely to occur just after midnight. The transition to a northerly flow will enhance upslope snowfall across higher elevations. Some valley locations, particularly from far northeastern Tennessee northward into southwestern Virginia, may experience light snow accumulation. Currently, favored higher elevation areas are expected to receive at around 1 inch of snow, with much lower totals in the lower elevations of the valley. As cold temperatures prevail, a deepening surface low to our northeast combined with rapidly advancing high pressure will result in increased wind gusts across higher terrain, potentially reaching near Wind Advisory levels, especially in the Southern Appalachians. Wind chills are forecasted to range from the teens to single digits.
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The 18z RGEM was a decently more aggressive for Weds. See that?
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What is interesting is the Euro AIFS sticking its landings from waaaay out there. It has another cold shot, maybe an ana-front, and major winter storm for the SE just after Dec 20. The GFS seems to really be having a tough time after a decent November. It is not able to see what look to be probably cold shots. Might it be right? Sure. But sometimes it seems like its LR maps are similar to listening to the selection committee tell me why our resume' isn't as good at PSU's or Texas'. AI is like building in strength of schedule. Definitely watching for a possible nasty cold shot from Jan 7-21. I have tried not to say to much about it as that is a long way out there, but it fits this kind of odd modeling that we have been seeing for January.
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The 18z RGEM is pretty much perfect...and we like that model at this range.
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I think we need to start watching for an anafront right before Christmas Eve.
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That cold shot is very apparent on both the CMC and EPS at range....I don't know what is going on with the GEFS. It has been unrealistically warm for several weeks at range. It has been whiffing.
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Models are sniffing out a really cold shot around Dec 22.
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Yes sir!
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I really like the Weeklies and Euro AI today. Been out of pocket. Looks like winter!!!!
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Reading some other forums and seeing comments about how Nino-like the pattern is. I tend to respectfully disagree with that. The bout of extended summer and quick flip to cold are hallmarks of La Nina-eque, downstream surface climatology. Now, I wholeheartedly agree that things seem "off." We have addressed the potential for that for several months. However, I do think we are seeing climatology from the cold set of analogs in play in LR modeling. Is it right? IDK. Now to be clear, analogs help us predict weather....they don't cause weather. Analogs are utilized to see if historic weather patterns are about to reappear. There have been colder patterns during this type of ENSO/SST setup. Also true, a lot of Nina winters kind of run their course by mid January. Some winters come back later like 95-96. To me, this winter has been a tough one to figure out due to the two sets of analogs for January(one set which ended winter after December and one set which was very cold). We are approaching a fork in the road towards late December and the car(weather) hasn't taken a turn to the right or left yet.
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The JMA used to sniff out storms. It is definitely not my "go to," but I do look at it. If you really want to see how long this front stalls, go to Tropical Tidbits for the EURO AIFS 12z run. That front just sits there, and then a wave runs the length of it. The JMA would be about perfect for here. Cold air crashing into a stalled GOM front is my favorite setup for big storms. I am NOT saying that happens, but man... Nice to see modeling hinting at that chance.
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There is a stationary front that sets up around Dec 9th. Cold front hits it around the 11th, and sends a wave up the stalled front.
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More.....I am trying not to like this. Wave runs a front. Slightly negative tilt.
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The CFSv2 is very similar with its setup at 12z...
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Precip is AN in eastern areas with that setup as well.....sorry for the flurry of posts.
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And honestly, the above is probably a setup where we don't want the NAO to fire. That is EPO driven w/ some SER embedded. We might need a little bit of ridging to our south with that, but we take that 10 out of 10 times. That setup is bringing air right off the pole and from Siberia. We could see some cold air which doesn't modify much with that look.
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Really tough to ask for much better than this....
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I should add, I am not sure I have seen the Euro Weeklies that cold during the lat 10 days of the run...pretty frigid for an ensemble. BN temps during our coldest week of the year are about all we can ask for at this range. Pretty decent signal from this far out. The Euro Weeklies are now almost out of shoulder season, and can hit targets at range.
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The Euro Weeklies do denote a cold shot around Christmas Eve w/ a secondary and tertiary shot coming in successive weeks in January. Is the jig up after Jan 20 or is it a thaw. Either way, January still looks like a month where winter is still in business.
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Again, something this winter has just seemed off. I don't know what it is. I definitely think we see warm-ups. That is true for any winter. But my gut says there is more cold in this pattern than what was being depicted by climatology and what we saw/are seeing in seasonal models. My gut can be plenty wrong BTW. Maybe we are just overdue for a normal winter in E TN. I need to go back and look at the 88-89 analog. Seems like that was a warm/dry summer followed by a normal winter...but that is off the top of my head. I haven't looked. I just remember it being hot on the farm in 88 maybe?
