Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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I think we need to start watching for an anafront right before Christmas Eve.
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That cold shot is very apparent on both the CMC and EPS at range....I don't know what is going on with the GEFS. It has been unrealistically warm for several weeks at range. It has been whiffing.
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Models are sniffing out a really cold shot around Dec 22.
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Yes sir!
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I really like the Weeklies and Euro AI today. Been out of pocket. Looks like winter!!!!
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Reading some other forums and seeing comments about how Nino-like the pattern is. I tend to respectfully disagree with that. The bout of extended summer and quick flip to cold are hallmarks of La Nina-eque, downstream surface climatology. Now, I wholeheartedly agree that things seem "off." We have addressed the potential for that for several months. However, I do think we are seeing climatology from the cold set of analogs in play in LR modeling. Is it right? IDK. Now to be clear, analogs help us predict weather....they don't cause weather. Analogs are utilized to see if historic weather patterns are about to reappear. There have been colder patterns during this type of ENSO/SST setup. Also true, a lot of Nina winters kind of run their course by mid January. Some winters come back later like 95-96. To me, this winter has been a tough one to figure out due to the two sets of analogs for January(one set which ended winter after December and one set which was very cold). We are approaching a fork in the road towards late December and the car(weather) hasn't taken a turn to the right or left yet.
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The JMA used to sniff out storms. It is definitely not my "go to," but I do look at it. If you really want to see how long this front stalls, go to Tropical Tidbits for the EURO AIFS 12z run. That front just sits there, and then a wave runs the length of it. The JMA would be about perfect for here. Cold air crashing into a stalled GOM front is my favorite setup for big storms. I am NOT saying that happens, but man... Nice to see modeling hinting at that chance.
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There is a stationary front that sets up around Dec 9th. Cold front hits it around the 11th, and sends a wave up the stalled front.
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More.....I am trying not to like this. Wave runs a front. Slightly negative tilt.
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The CFSv2 is very similar with its setup at 12z...
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Precip is AN in eastern areas with that setup as well.....sorry for the flurry of posts.
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And honestly, the above is probably a setup where we don't want the NAO to fire. That is EPO driven w/ some SER embedded. We might need a little bit of ridging to our south with that, but we take that 10 out of 10 times. That setup is bringing air right off the pole and from Siberia. We could see some cold air which doesn't modify much with that look.
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Really tough to ask for much better than this....
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I should add, I am not sure I have seen the Euro Weeklies that cold during the lat 10 days of the run...pretty frigid for an ensemble. BN temps during our coldest week of the year are about all we can ask for at this range. Pretty decent signal from this far out. The Euro Weeklies are now almost out of shoulder season, and can hit targets at range.
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The Euro Weeklies do denote a cold shot around Christmas Eve w/ a secondary and tertiary shot coming in successive weeks in January. Is the jig up after Jan 20 or is it a thaw. Either way, January still looks like a month where winter is still in business.
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Again, something this winter has just seemed off. I don't know what it is. I definitely think we see warm-ups. That is true for any winter. But my gut says there is more cold in this pattern than what was being depicted by climatology and what we saw/are seeing in seasonal models. My gut can be plenty wrong BTW. Maybe we are just overdue for a normal winter in E TN. I need to go back and look at the 88-89 analog. Seems like that was a warm/dry summer followed by a normal winter...but that is off the top of my head. I haven't looked. I just remember it being hot on the farm in 88 maybe?
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This is the CFSv2 500 30 day from 6z for Dec 20-Jan19. 5 of the last 6 runs of the CFS have the trough in the east regardless of color shading. The trough varies in depth. Now, the 0z CFSv2 had the mean 30d trough in the southwest. So, I don't want to misrepresent what the model is depicting. It looks remarkably like the Euro Weeklies ext from yesterday. Its 500 pattern is slightly east of the Euro Weeklies, and I would argue that is a bias of that model(eastern trough default). Now, a lot of this will wobble and sometimes change drastically. I am just showing that the CFSv2 isn't that far off at 500 from the Weeklies. So, while its temp maps at Wxbell are extreme, this is less so if one(mentally) dials back the oranges and blues a bit. I think the wxbell cfsv2 500 maps are still very usable - slightly overdone but the Euro is probably underdone. The temp maps are useful if one just understands they algorithm is overdone. (edit added)
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Here is the 30d map at 500 from ~Dec21-Jan21....temps are normal to slighly below.
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I took snapshots of the Euro Weeklies progression from Dec 16 to Jan 21. It looks reasonable.
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Again, I am not sure the CFSv2 500 charts are off. Temp maps are always cold on WxBell. However, it only takes a little bit of mental adjustment to understand where the troughs/ridges are. The 12/5 Euro Weeklies, CMC Weeklies, and CFSv2 look decently similar for the pattern evolution after Dec 21. I agree with Bam that I don't see the January torch which we have seen during recent years. I don't watch or read a lot from Bam as a few winters ago they tended to switch with every model run. But, I can look with my own two eyes and see the ridge try to go up again either just west of the West Coast or the PNA. There are certainly runs which don't have that. But the majority of runs have a trough developing in the East just after Christmas. Is it right? I think possibly. A trough later in December and early January actually fits La Nina climatology which I think we are in despite the graph not being there yet. I can't tell how strong that cold shot is. We have been talking about it here well before Bam had a video about it - no offense to Bam and no offense taken by his video being posted(I like listening to other forecasts or reading them). ....Again, and I sound like a broken record....the January analog package has some very cold representatives. Some of our best winters have been with a weak La Nina. Some of those analogs are way AN. It is no surprise that LR ext modeling is showing a colder solution. Will it verify? IDK. I tend to lean that January is going to have some colder weeks. The Euro Weeklies have some skill in the 3-4 week range with the long wave pattern. Normally, if the pattern is going to go fully to crap...you can see it on modeling about now. I don't see that - yet. And if that occurs, you can blame me for writing that last sentence!
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Interestingly, the GFS Weeklies LR ext has moved to the Euro Weeklies look of retrograding the trough into the West after the warm-up. The 0z EPS and GEPS have that this morning around the 21st.
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I think we are going to see that trough to to setup in the Mountain West. For whatever reason, I am slowly coming around to the idea that we are going to have more cold here than my original winter forecast/ideas. January has been wild card in my mind. At this point, it looks like we are going to see part of January turn out cold which is a win in my book. Hope your time with your family is goin as well as it can! The 18z GFS, as John notes, is back in the snow column for the 11-12th. I continue to like that setup around that time frame.
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Are their 500 maps off as well? I thought it was just the temp algorithm.
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The Euro Weeklies ensemble looks good after Dec 23rd. The control is the opposite. Ensemble looks very good.
