Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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The real question is whether people in Miami are pulling for equal chances!
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The Euro Weeklies bring the trough back during the first week of January. That look connects really well to the 12z EPS run...meaning if you took the EPS, the Weeklies would pick up right where the EPS left off. That is decent continuity.
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The 12z GEPS and 12z Euro are showing the pattern reset advertised by the Euro extended modeling right around the New Year.
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The Euro Weeklies ext look pretty exceptional today for January cold - really. We can deal with that look all day long. IMHO, that is very 95-96 or 93-94.
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This kind of seems like we see the cold hit in pieces prior to Christmas, get a 7-10 warm-up, very cold shot during second and third week of January, warm-up, and then Feb ?????. If this is like 95-96, we will see one more shot in Feb. 18z GFS doesn't look terrible.
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2024-2025 Winter Ideas and Discussion
Carvers Gap replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, sets up nicely for the second and third week of Jan. Then, probably will have to deal with a rotation through the warm phases for the last ten days or say....then maybe we can score a repeat for mid Feb. -
I am just watching this big hp around the 21-22nd. If it stays at that strength, I would be really surprised if some in the forum area don't see at least minor accumulations of snow w/ either a slider, clipper, and/or inland runner. We live in the Upper South, so there plenty of ways to miss...but that is a good setup. Looks like maybe a warm-up after that, but the warm-up has been getting pushed back quite a bit. I do think a western chinook is on tap and spread eastward. Looks like maybe cold returns after the first week of January...and that might be true winter at that point.
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The 12z CMC has a similar setup. Are we gonna call that a bowling ball low which just kind of meanders its way through the Upper South?
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The interesting thing about recent Nina patterns, they have kind produced these one-off storms. Then, we are done. This pattern is a nickel and dime one. That adds up over time. We got more snow in my neighborhood last night. I have nearly lost count of the number of light dustings we have had so far. That is pretty rare in my local for December 12th! It has also been really windy of late which implies variability in the weather pattern. Variability might be what works in this day and age - the deck gets reshuffled almost weekly. Cold patterns don't hit and hold...so maybe small doses are better??? Either way, no complaints from me on what the GFS has been cooking up inside of d10 for several runs now. I just don't want what it is cooking after Christmas!!!!
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1050+ HP coming down the Plains has been a good setup lately for this forum. The 12z GFS has 2 potential winter storms inside of 9 days. The EURO AIFS has been hinting at this 1-2 punch for a few days...maybe 1-2-3. Cold supply and storms appear to be in the system. We just need them in the same place at the same time.
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Speaking of the GFS, it hasn't been bad inside of d10....just outside of that. Why do I say that? Well 12z is loaded for bear....
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I think American modeling is over-doing the chinook that looks likely just after Christmas. The Euro AIFS and Weeklies control(from yesterday) both have that chinook ending fairly quickly, and only have chinook air flooding the continent for a brief amount of time. The 6z AI has the next cold shot plowing right through it. Again, American modeling is much warmer than any other modeling. To me, the algorithm looks like it has been changed for the model. It is almost completely bling to cold fronts outside of ten days....they ensemble is worse. Anyone have the link to how modeling is scoring?
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Maybe what interests me most is an active northern stream which would bring potential upslope snows and clippers into the area between December 20-25th. Looks like the southern branch might also be active, but with less certainty - if one can have any certainty at this range. If this look persists, the chances for at less a minor snowfall increase greatly for at least someone in the forum area to have snow on the ground by Christmas Eve. Travel headache potential would be significant if that persists. ....The Euro AIFS probably gets credit for sniffing out the post Dec 20 cold shot.
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Fun and games on last night's model runs!!!
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18z is an E TN / DC special. Decent signal for a storm east of the MS.
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The 6z ECMWF AIFS unleashes the Arctic late in its run.....brutal cold by Christmas. FWIW.....
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Looks like 12z (operational) is more realistic. But the entire American model suite GFS/CFS is way out of step. It might be right, but it looks crazy wonky. I do agree there are times NA is scoured and no cold air remains. The last time we saw that happen was when the GOA low parked itself off the coast of southern Alaska, and flooded Canada with maritime air. I don't think American modeling is right, but it certainly could be...I just don't think it is.
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American LR extended modeling is much warmer than Euro/Canadian products of similar time ranges. I wonder if something has been tweaked or updated in with that model. It is missing cold fronts that it didn't use to....
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The Euro Weeklies ext continue to advertise a pretty decent pattern progression w/ some embedded zonal flow for sure. That said, it wouldn't be a bad winter if that verified.
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The 12z non-AI Euro with a really nice pass around the 21st. I continue to like that timeframe.
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18z artificial intelligence happy hour.
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On a side note, I miss the DGEX. The Euro AIFS has kind of taken its place for me, but the clown maps for that thing were legendary.
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JB was noting that the MJO is forecast to get really quiet in January - I "think" I read the map correctly. Sometimes he has inverted color schemes, and it is the opposite of what I think it is showing. If the MJO signal is weak, that might not be a bad thing considering the Maritime tendency to fire when we don't want it to....
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If you really want to help us out, start planting some expensive stuff that is really sensitive to long bouts of cold and snow! Cause you know what is coming next if you do that. Either that or we can get @Stovepipeto schedule a camper trip to the mountains during January.
