Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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The interesting thing about recent Nina patterns, they have kind produced these one-off storms. Then, we are done. This pattern is a nickel and dime one. That adds up over time. We got more snow in my neighborhood last night. I have nearly lost count of the number of light dustings we have had so far. That is pretty rare in my local for December 12th! It has also been really windy of late which implies variability in the weather pattern. Variability might be what works in this day and age - the deck gets reshuffled almost weekly. Cold patterns don't hit and hold...so maybe small doses are better??? Either way, no complaints from me on what the GFS has been cooking up inside of d10 for several runs now. I just don't want what it is cooking after Christmas!!!!
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1050+ HP coming down the Plains has been a good setup lately for this forum. The 12z GFS has 2 potential winter storms inside of 9 days. The EURO AIFS has been hinting at this 1-2 punch for a few days...maybe 1-2-3. Cold supply and storms appear to be in the system. We just need them in the same place at the same time.
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Speaking of the GFS, it hasn't been bad inside of d10....just outside of that. Why do I say that? Well 12z is loaded for bear....
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I think American modeling is over-doing the chinook that looks likely just after Christmas. The Euro AIFS and Weeklies control(from yesterday) both have that chinook ending fairly quickly, and only have chinook air flooding the continent for a brief amount of time. The 6z AI has the next cold shot plowing right through it. Again, American modeling is much warmer than any other modeling. To me, the algorithm looks like it has been changed for the model. It is almost completely bling to cold fronts outside of ten days....they ensemble is worse. Anyone have the link to how modeling is scoring?
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Maybe what interests me most is an active northern stream which would bring potential upslope snows and clippers into the area between December 20-25th. Looks like the southern branch might also be active, but with less certainty - if one can have any certainty at this range. If this look persists, the chances for at less a minor snowfall increase greatly for at least someone in the forum area to have snow on the ground by Christmas Eve. Travel headache potential would be significant if that persists. ....The Euro AIFS probably gets credit for sniffing out the post Dec 20 cold shot.
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Fun and games on last night's model runs!!!
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18z is an E TN / DC special. Decent signal for a storm east of the MS.
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The 6z ECMWF AIFS unleashes the Arctic late in its run.....brutal cold by Christmas. FWIW.....
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Looks like 12z (operational) is more realistic. But the entire American model suite GFS/CFS is way out of step. It might be right, but it looks crazy wonky. I do agree there are times NA is scoured and no cold air remains. The last time we saw that happen was when the GOA low parked itself off the coast of southern Alaska, and flooded Canada with maritime air. I don't think American modeling is right, but it certainly could be...I just don't think it is.
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American LR extended modeling is much warmer than Euro/Canadian products of similar time ranges. I wonder if something has been tweaked or updated in with that model. It is missing cold fronts that it didn't use to....
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The Euro Weeklies ext continue to advertise a pretty decent pattern progression w/ some embedded zonal flow for sure. That said, it wouldn't be a bad winter if that verified.
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The 12z non-AI Euro with a really nice pass around the 21st. I continue to like that timeframe.
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18z artificial intelligence happy hour.
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On a side note, I miss the DGEX. The Euro AIFS has kind of taken its place for me, but the clown maps for that thing were legendary.
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JB was noting that the MJO is forecast to get really quiet in January - I "think" I read the map correctly. Sometimes he has inverted color schemes, and it is the opposite of what I think it is showing. If the MJO signal is weak, that might not be a bad thing considering the Maritime tendency to fire when we don't want it to....
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If you really want to help us out, start planting some expensive stuff that is really sensitive to long bouts of cold and snow! Cause you know what is coming next if you do that. Either that or we can get @Stovepipeto schedule a camper trip to the mountains during January.
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That EPO ridge just wants to hit and hold. It is a bit surprising to see modeling that adamant, but I am sure there is some decent science behind it. It really looks like the base pattern on LR modeling. I know that is John's favorite pattern and for good reason. I hope it holds. I like the NAO, but this is a year it could easily hook into a SER...so, we want it quiet this year.
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In the longer range, this is kind of what I am monitoring. I "think" that if the first half of January goes cold, we might be looking at some colder analogs going forward from their. 95-96"(light version) is an analog which is working well of late. I am NOT calling for that kind of winter. But I wouldn't rule out something like this...a couple more cold shots, warm-up around Christmas, step down cold through the third week of Jan, thaw, early Feb cold, warm last half of Feb, and then March cools back down. January looks a lot like this on the Euro Weeklies w/ some ridging bellying underneath from the southwest. My guess is that we see a pretty variable pattern which normally works well here during January.
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This may well be cold chasing rain. However, if the low backs a little due that leeside low which is showing up on short range modeling, I could see higher elevations on the Plateau, SE KY, SW VA, and areas above 2000' in E TN doing OK. Morristown seems to have a knack for scoring lately. My inlaws live there, and they often do as well as we do in NE TN!
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MRX afternoon disco... Wednesday: A significant influx of dry air will introduce a much colder airmass early Wednesday, causing temperatures to decline throughout the day. The highest temperature on Wednesday is likely to occur just after midnight. The transition to a northerly flow will enhance upslope snowfall across higher elevations. Some valley locations, particularly from far northeastern Tennessee northward into southwestern Virginia, may experience light snow accumulation. Currently, favored higher elevation areas are expected to receive at around 1 inch of snow, with much lower totals in the lower elevations of the valley. As cold temperatures prevail, a deepening surface low to our northeast combined with rapidly advancing high pressure will result in increased wind gusts across higher terrain, potentially reaching near Wind Advisory levels, especially in the Southern Appalachians. Wind chills are forecasted to range from the teens to single digits.
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The 18z RGEM was a decently more aggressive for Weds. See that?
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What is interesting is the Euro AIFS sticking its landings from waaaay out there. It has another cold shot, maybe an ana-front, and major winter storm for the SE just after Dec 20. The GFS seems to really be having a tough time after a decent November. It is not able to see what look to be probably cold shots. Might it be right? Sure. But sometimes it seems like its LR maps are similar to listening to the selection committee tell me why our resume' isn't as good at PSU's or Texas'. AI is like building in strength of schedule. Definitely watching for a possible nasty cold shot from Jan 7-21. I have tried not to say to much about it as that is a long way out there, but it fits this kind of odd modeling that we have been seeing for January.
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The 18z RGEM is pretty much perfect...and we like that model at this range.
