Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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12z EPS is a beaut, Clark. To the 12z GFS, the sh$%$@ers full, bud. The Euro Weeklies are even beautifuler. But after watching the Vols against Ohio State, I feel this is a week to have my affairs in order. Interestingly, it was the GFS which was too warm at range for Columbus. It stalled a cold front erroneously at range. The Canadian and Euro were better if memory serves me correctly. But the GFS was so freaking bad, I was afraid to say(about ten days out) that Columbus was going to be cold.
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Looks like some really cold air is about to enter North America. Remember the LR modeling that completely erased cold in NA??? Looking more and more that was an error(missed the refill). That type of severe cold is going to wreck havoc on modeling. Good times! LOL
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I have done this dance with the GFS too many times. Sometimes it scores a coup. To me it looks like it has feedback over the southwest which causes the following trough to dig there. Its ensemble still brings a lot of cold eastward by the 7-8th. That timing difference has been there off and on. Everything else has a cold front coming in by the 3rd. The GFS kind of hops between the 3rd and the next front around the 7th or 8th.
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Right now it is just the GFS…..which has had problems of late.
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Best I can tell the GFS is getting hung up in the Southwest. I really deepens that storm, and thus pops a ridge in front as it digs. That could happen. Cutoffs in the Southwest are a legit feature, and they are also a legit model flaw. I don't see any other model doing that at the moment. The AIFS at 6z just rolled it on through as did the 12z CMC. Something to watch as the GFS sometimes will pick up on trends, but it has been woeful at times at being completely bling to cold fronts. The current GFS is very similar to the old Euro in terms of warm bias and things getting hung-up in the Southwest. Again, it is worth watching. That looks more like it really brings the cold with the second front around the 7th. The 6z AIFS was glacier worthy.
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I could be wrong, but the GFS looks in error. It has been doing this off and on for the last 7-10 days(same time frame). The issue is that it digs into the southwest and holds. That is a plausible feature, but it still kicks out. The GFS is basically about 4-5 days slower than other modeling. Its own ensemble really doesn't support it....though it is still running right now. It might be a sign that we are seeing some can kicking, but I am going to need to see some other modeling hint at it. For now, the GFS is an outlier even in its own camp.
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Never can rule out a can kick in this area! However, generally we begin to see signs by now if that was to occur. I do agree that we need to get it inside of d10. However, the cold is on deterministic models. When I get skiddish is when the Weeklies solutions continue to get pushed back and never really show up on the d1-16 models. The thing that gives me confidence(rightly or wrongly) the ridge really wants to go out West. We will probably understand that more once the pattern verifies(if it verifies) after winter. For the ski slopes, I am super happy for them.
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To echo John …the 12z GEPS and GEFS are about as cold as ensembles can get in the d10-15. Wow. Crazy to look at on Tropical Tidbits.
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This gives you an idea of how cold the air mass is that we are looking at for part of January....or all of it. When we start seeing snowstorms into the Florida Panhandle, that shows how strong the air mass "could" be.
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Pretty rare to see the EPS with 10-11 degree BN departures. 12z has it over the TN Valley forum. I would say at this point, the ingredients for a major snowstorm are beginning to show up on modeling for Jan5-20. That is right smack in the middle of our coldest climatology. To get those types of departures during our coldest time of the year is impressive.
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We may see temps below zero, especially at higher elevations. BN temps are COLD during January. That is an overrunning setup if I have ever seen one. I am not saying that is here, but somewhere east of the MS. The GFS brings portion of the eastern valley into low single digits with no snow on the ground. That is what the Weeklies have been hinting at.
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The 12z GFS is on board now. Complete cave, and maybe even more extreme than other modeling. As for how things are set up right now, I really don't mind it. I have had snow in the air for the past two days - more days than I can count so far. It is important in this area to remember that winter really doesn't start here (historically) until late December and early January in the valleys. So, I couldn't be happier with how the season has begun. Looks like a 7-10 day warmup beginning on Christmas. Then, it sure looks like the bottom comes out. Deterministic models are now seeing the cold which is what we want to see in deterministic models. Ensembles have it. Good connections. That ridge really wants to stay out west. Honestly, we all may want a break towards the end of January should all of that verify. Pattern looks pretty loaded at 12z(GFS).
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If that high latitude setup manages to trap the PV, could get interesting. I have not seen that yet, but it could with that setup.
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Spitting flakes In Sullivan Co this evening. Man, it is freaking cold. The WC is just a wee bit chilly!
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The GEFS went from worst to first in about four runs today as it again caves to the EPS/GDPS models. If we keep it in the old tomorrow, very good sign. That sucker has a monster AK ridge and a -NAO. Fingers crossed. As we have seen during the past few years, that look can go very wrong(WAR city), but as is....nice run.
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GEFS ext.....initiate the -NAO protocol. Very cold run for that model. At some point, we should see model ensembles begin to trend in one direction or the other. Good trends today. Let's see if they hold. For now(stress that), the colder analogs look more likely to win out for January.
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Yeah, the 6z GEFS cooled considerably in the east for early January. Let's see if that continues to trend that way. I do think January gets pretty cold. However, I don't trust the GFS at this time of year - been burned too many times both cold and hot with that model. However, the Euro Weeklies have also burned me. Really, it is the last part of the first week that is supposed to see a return to season and cold. EURO AIFS/GFS vs EPS/Euro deterministic/CPC/GDPS/GEFS(wobbly support from GEFS) Considering the warm bias of the two on the left, I still like what the Euro Weeklies and American Weeklies portray as the likely result. If you follow Richard G West on Twitter, the GFS is like that. The dude is punking people with many tweets, but he sometimes throws some actual breaking news into the mix before anyone else has it. So the GFS is kind of like the Richard G West of the news world. Amazing that January was a question mark back in August, and it still is with twelve days to go. I think a good run of winter between Jan 5-20...after that is a considerable question mark.
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Crazy to see how differently the EP/GEP and GEFS are right now after d10. They converged a bit yesterday, and have diverged again overnight. Even the GFS operational is on an island. The GFS really struggled with the cold during the past few weeks. If it gets beat this time, I am going to have to retire it for a bit. OTH, if it wins....big win for American modeling. I won't say it isn't right - I learned a long time ago not to discount outliers in weather modeling. However, it looks really off. The 6z GFS is certainly plausible given climatology, and is one scenario we need to guard against....that the warm isn't just a 7 day warm-up. FTR, I do think it is wrong, but I do consider it nonetheless. Sometime in science evidence is presented which asks us to consider another solution.
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I know it is hour 384 on the 12z GFS, but can we all admit that it would have been fun to see the next few slides?
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12z GFS (WAAAAY out there around 11) is showing an Apps snowstorm of 1-2'.
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The big moves overnight were the GEFS at 6z finally caving to the EPS. That is big, because they haven't been on the same page for a week or so.... Looks like a pretty significant cold shot inbound sometime after the New Year.
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Two things I have done to bring about all of this weather. Last week I put windshield wipers on the car...it has rained almost every day since. I need to remember this during droughts. I also did my leaves today....I can assure you that later tonight there will be gale force winds IMBY. The wind will blow from the yard with the most leaves still yet to be picked up - this is a certainty. I have no idea what combo makes it snow. I do have a snow shovel from 14-15. I may put that out front. Maybe I we see our 4-wheel drive vehicles...that'll make it snow.
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Euro control weeklies look eerily similar to the 95-95 winter progression as best as I can remember it from personal experience. This is not as severe, but formidable. One shot to start the month, relaxes, big shot to end the month. The ensembles would be colder if they verified, and not smoothed.
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The 12z GFS with an inland runner around Dec 30. It pops as a result of a cutter which effectively ends the warm-up. The GFS brings a pretty chill regime after that. Maybe a slider with that setup if it verifies.
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You are doing good work over there! Keep it up!!!!
