Carvers Gap

The GEFS ext(Euro equivalent of the weeklies) is rolling right now. It is equally impressive.

This is old school stuff for sure. I have been super hesitant to post about it lately. I have been staring at maps similar to this for 2-3 weeks and trying to stay reasonably quiet about it. These are the cold analogs for January which most of us have discussed on this. I am not totally sure of the drivers of this(but analogs have precedence for it), but what worries me a bit more is that modeling is really beginning to lean colder. There are a lot of folks in the mountains who would struggle with a cold winter due to Helene. Hopefully, local agencies are gearing up. If it is a false alarm, so be it. But modeling has looked pretty wild today. We will see if it holds. Real feels in the mountains are below zero on a lot of these model runs.

Last of the maps for a bit. Pay attention to the AO map. That has been a missing piece during the past few winters. Here is the 18z GFS deterministic AO. If it goes there, game on......

This is the CFSv2 from 12z. This is for all of January. I actually like this a bit better as the confluence on this map is nearly perfect.

The Euro Weeklies continue w/ the goods for January....You can see the storm tracks - slider, cutters, inland runners, and Nor'easter's possible.

Details are understandably sketchy at this range, and modeling is accentuating differing pieces of energy. The 12z Euro managed to get this during the 12z suite(mostly a slider around 1/6).

Thought I would grab these and share. Do I trust the GFS or GEFS? Nope, but what a reversal! Here are some thoughts on the 18z GEFS. I have to say, the 12z Euro wasn't too far behind this. The CMC and GEPS were way colder. A lot of this is just now coming into focus. So, we will proceed with caution. But since most of us wait all summer to look at maps like this, it is fun to discuss. Pretty massive storm signals for early to mid January. Image 1: That time frame probably is going to have to be watched. The NAO is a bit forced, but it still works. Image 2: This is probably the best timeframe. PNA/EPO ridge. And...confluence. \ Image 3: The single day temps are frigid for an ensemble. It is worth noting that this is during our coldest month of the year. Those are ~10 degree below normal departures for a 7d time frame. Image 4: 12z GEFS snow map for d1-16. When the NE TN map gets to 5-6" of snow, probably best to pay attention on my part. It is Christmas, and I had planned on taking a break today. However, we have been blessed with some crazy fun stuff to discuss. So, the dishes are done, and I am sitting down to look at stuff for a bit!

That is a pretty insane analog package by CPC for d8-14. I have no idea if they are right, but thought it was worth a share as those folks at CPC get paid to do this.

Just a quick break for me this evening. This is the 30d 500 map that the Euro Weeklies rolled with today....If we had BN heights east of Hawaii, it would be BBQ sauce(to quote the great Ted Lasso). But that is pretty much BBQ sauce right there as is.

2018...the rivers froze here. I may have had a pipe bust. That was one of those winters if it had snowed a couple of times, it would have taken a month to dig out. Good post. I added the CPC analogs above for today. I can never remember about 1977...it was stellar, right? If so, 70% of their analogs are from benchmark winters.

Did you see Cosgrove's comments on FB this afternoon? I would post them, but kind of feel like I shouldn't post his personal comments from FB. He was banging the drum.

Speaking of analogs, checkout the CPC's analogs for d8-14. Look at the ones which are double weighted. 19850109 20001227 19951229 19850118 19810103 19951224 19970110 19770121 19770115 20091221

This is waaaay out there, but....here is the run total. The run is even more impressive at 500. Happy Hour, indeed.

The 18z (at 500 anyways) is probably not a super realistic run. But holy Batman, what a block up top. That is a pretty extreme run.

Models have been dishing today. I won't go through all of the potential scenarios, but some really cold air masses are interacting w/ northern stream energy and/or southern stream energy. Pretty good table being set. Could it be a head fake? Sure, we live in the Upper South - that is the norm. That said, what is being shown on modeling is a pretty textbook setup for winter weather in the East.

18z w/ storm number one around d10.

Nice little snow mean(total run) on the 12 GEFS for portions of E TN. 5-6" of snow for TRI.

12z suite(Euro hasn’t run yet) has been pretty fun so far. The GFS has some extreme cold over the northern plains.

Awesome stuff! (I almost went running right there this morning!)

Merry Christmas to the best weather forum on the planet!!

I like when I have to look at the key to find out what value blue/light purple is. Is it too much to ask that MBY beats Columbus, OH, by 42-17 in seasonal snowfall? Things have to even out.

Will in a bit. Today and tomorrow my posting options are limited. I am hoping someone will post it!

The Euro Weeklies Control snow map.

The 12z GFS completely caves yet again. In fact, it almost pops a coastal storm during the same time it stubbornly had a storm over the Four Corners! It looks like most of our peak winter climatology will be reserved for likely cold weather. TRI sits at -1.3F BN through Dec 23rd. That departure will probably sneak slightly AN by the end of the month of December. January may will mirror December in terms of temp pattern progression. Sure looks to me like the cold January analogs are going to win the first three weeks of January. Could that change? Sure! Enjoy!

And this is why I don't sweat chinooks....and it is probably why Native Americans liked them and had a specific name for the event. In some translations it is "snow eater." Within just 10-11 days, the snow eater is vanquished on this model run. That is how quickly things can change. I grew up watching temps from International Falls, and guessing how long it would take to get cold in Tennessee.