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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    The may get better as it is actual winter now, but the seasonals get an F for December(as released in November) - honestly, I am not sure how much more it could miss. January looks like it has a base trough in the Mountain West, but the SER is not as strong for January which (to me) implies some cold intrusion. Below are the side-by-side comparisons of the Nov1 vs Dec1 seasonal releases.
  2. Carvers Gap
  3. Carvers Gap
    Man, the wind is howling. I would guess we easily exceeding 40-50mph gusts on my end of TRI. Truckers are pulled over at rest stops right now. It is not an easy day to be a high profile vehicle on the interstate. I am very surprised no wind advisories have been issues for the valleys of TRI.
  4. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS is a really, really good run for the dec11-12 storm.
  5. Carvers Gap
    The Euro weeklies now support the control from yesterday that I shared for early to mid Jan. Very rare to see that ensemble that cold for week 6. Could be very wrong, but usually it has a warm bias.
  6. Carvers Gap
    I don't know if the Euro is handling the MJO well or not....but it really doesn't want to warm things up on the 12z run. Weeklies are rolling right now...updated in a minute.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Yep. Just has the hallmarks of some bigger winter storms. Cold air incoming. Trending towards the coast. It could end up being a coastal and no impact here, but tough to know right now. Euro is more of a coastal.
  8. Carvers Gap
    I think there is a chance that we are gonna be tracking a pretty big storm around the 11-12th. Modeling was west yesterday. The Canadian and GFS are well east of that today. Even the ICON has it to some extent. I don't have a clear idea on where it will be, but it could be significant. SLP or wave riding a cold front.
  9. Carvers Gap
    That was pretty close to a special run by the 12z GFS. The CMS is close.
  10. Carvers Gap
    That fits with the colder January analogs.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The 0z CMC and 6z EURO AIFS are not dissimilar....decent chance of a winter storm somewhere in the TN Valley forum.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Man, after getting inexplicably blanked for multiple events last year....Unicoi is back to digging out from NW flow events.
  13. Carvers Gap
    I know JB gets a hard time sometimes, but they have created a great maps page, and I great appreciate them for letting us share their maps. That is what is underneath the map above. And this is exactly why January is a very tough forecast. It is a true wildcard - really extreme, polar opposite analogs. In this case, just polar.
  14. Carvers Gap
    This would be on the extreme end of modeling...but it also mimics the extreme La Nina analogs. Seems like the very end of December through mid-Jan might be the window for the next cold shot. That isn't a look. If forced, I would say Jan 1-8. Then, another ridge rolls through, and then???. The pattern is much more transient than I had envisioned, but that might spare us from a torch for January. Indeed, the map below is the opposite of such. That is a 30 day map which begins with a massive warm-up. So, just imagine what it took to erase that warmup.
  15. Carvers Gap
    The 6z CFSv2 is a thing of beauty for January. That is an incredibly cold look. Now, it is guilty at times of misreading the MJO. So, proceed with caution.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Great start to the winter. It was ripping last night around 10:00. Very unexpected. Orographic lift maybe? The past few days remind me of 14-15 where everything seemed to over-perform.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Two good passes by the last two (0z and 6z) GFS runs. The CMC isn't far behind. More than likely that is a mid-state cutter, but the GFS sniffs these out sometimes first.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Lots of schools closed up here this morning. I would say I have an 1.5-2" of snow on the table out back.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Pretty good thump here IMBY...probably between .5-0.75" of snow. Nice band hit which overperformed. It snowed yesterday as well w/ no accumulation. We had the trace a few days back. That is three times it has snowed so far. Good start.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Light snow IMBY.
  21. Carvers Gap
    This is a sample of what I am looking at. The Euro Weeklies today showed a the trough returning for the last part of December and into January. My guess is that it is a little quick with bringing the trough back after the mid Dec warm-up. However, after a back-and-forth pattern to end December and begin Jan, it drops the hammer. The first two images are the control for the first two weeks of January, and this fits with the colder Nina analogs. The last image is the CFSv2 for January. They look a lot alike. The Euro Weeklies ensemble is very similar to the control, but more smoothed. if I hadn't centered the time increments for Jan1-8 and 9-16, you would also seem some twenty below normal temps. We are approaching the coldest time of the year in January, so anything below normal works.
  22. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies continue to show a trough that really does not want to tuck into the West for more than a week - still not sure why that is, but we will take it. I think we get a ridge from say Dec16-22. It could last through the 27-28th. Then, I think we go into a back and forth pattern very similar to some of the colder La Ninas. I don't think it is a full blown cold pattern, but I would be surprised if it was a full blown warm pattern. It sort of just looks like a normal winter pattern.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Thunder in the mountains....
  24. Carvers Gap
    I think we will have chances. I have seen a lot worse on LR modeling in the past. Even transient cold during Jan can score here.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Some LE snow for the Buffalo vs SF game if you need some mood flakes. They are under a decent band.
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