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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Sure enough the new seasonal Euro maps have each month cooler(though still quite warm in totality). December is warmest. January cooler. February cooler - w/ the trough shifting West. I can tell you I was not expecting to see that, though we certainly discussed it here as a possibility. Interesting. Overall, each month is quite warm so "cooler" is a term used relative to the previous month. The SER looks locked-in until maybe early-mid Jan. It seems like during weak La Nina's there is a relaxation of the SER, and cold pours southeast. Maybe the door is open for that for a 3-4 week timeframe in the window of mid-Jan through Feb. Again, kind of a surprising run as the ridge moves into the Southwest for the second half of winter. That run ties in nicely to what we are seeing with the weeklies and global ensembles. I think the start to winter looks to be quite warm, though climatology argues against it. That said, it is still shoulder season, and we have to remember how bad modeling can be at this time of year.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Interestingly, I am still not seeing a cold start to winter. We have the previously mentioned mid-Nov cool down. But the overall pattern at 500 is not budging at all. That could be feedback in modeling. However, the longer (and I have said this prior) that warm air pushes into December...the more likely the inevitable cold shot is centered during colder climo. Definitely will be interesting to track the strength of the La Nina - see John's post. If it is weak, mischief is possible.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Israeli weather (highland snow) is a winter interest of mine. I don't know a lot about their weather, but it seems like La Nina is good for Jerusalem snow during Jan-Feb. Weather there(western 2/3) is very similar to here.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Probably could fire up a December 2024 thread in a week or so. We are now within the 3-4 week window on weeklies...so less speculation and some weak forecasting skill by modeling at this range. LOTS of possibilities are on the table for December. The Euro Weeklies (now daily) run...the control has a sharp cold snap before Christmas. There is some hint on the GFS ext that the ridge will move west. However, that has been a mirage every, single time any model has shown that during fall. Right now we should be running 15-20 degrees above normal if this week's models are anywhere close to being correct. It still feels like summer during the afternoons here. It is kind of surreal actually. Mornings are cool, but the temps are jacked up during the afternoon. I suspect modeling will be completely blind to the first cold snap. There is probably a lot of feedback in modeling right now. That said, La Nina falls are often not cold....until they are. Personally, I think the base pattern is warm for the foreseeable future. IDK if that means December, but I am starting to lean that way ever so slightly. However, most modeling completely missed summer extending the extreme it has now - meaning climatology won. I suspect we cool off for December, but that is an easy call given the extreme that this week will likely be. No winter anywhere to be seen on modeling east of the Mississippi, and that includes the 4-6 Weeklies ensemble. I suspect we will see some more Euro control ext runs which are cold. This trough is parked in the West. It has been a LONG time since we have had a true non-winter. We are over due. I am talking "not a single flake" type of deal. Those are usually reserved for super Ninos. I suspect we see 1-2 extreme shots of cold this winter somewhere in the forum area.
  5. Carvers Gap
    I have Dec-Jan as ascending(meaning more above normal with each passing month). I am still unconvinced the opposite might occur. This winter is playing with fire. The longer this warm fall lasts, the more the winter becomes uncertain. Euro weeklies are picking up on a day14-21 cool down. The late tropical season is a La Nina special. I wonder what the correlation to winter is for late landfalls to the ensuing winter? I am gonna bet it is a cooler winter than I have.
  6. Carvers Gap
    AMO flip early 1990s is likely culprit here (not referencing other areas). Also, and it is well documented in many threads for our sub forum, there is A LOT of snow missing in the official record. I have slides of official NWS accumulation data from specific storms which are absent from 1990s MRX data. We are talking 20-30" of snow missing in one season. In fact, the snowiest season I have ever experienced in my lifetime was 2014-2015. I had close to 30" of snow at my house for Jan-March of that winter. Our school system which is notorious for not letting school out...ran out of days. I think we had like 10 snow days or something like that. The 70s were definitely colder and snowier. So, that is my $0.02. Climate discussion has its own thread, but I did want to mention that snow data (and lots of it) is missing. @John1122easily has the most accurate records as his records date back at least to his grandfather. It is the only uncorrupted source for much of the eastern half of TN that I know of.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The first image is the CANSIPS for DJF. The second is for Dec only, and is the "best" of the three for our area. The big theme is a persistent eastern ridge which is exactly what we are seeing now. This is a VERY stable pattern. @Holston_River_Rambler's favorite wx feature is present over the Aleutians. But, and there is a very big but....the CFS has been flirting with January for several weeks. This is WHY I am not sold on January being warm. I hold to 4-6 weeks for how long a pattern can hold during winter at this latitude. If we get to the end of November and things are still warm.....that means the next pattern change runs Dec - midJan. IF, IF that pattern is cooler(and it should be), then we get a much different result than the CANSIPS. First CFS image is DJF. Second is January. Now, the CFS flip flops quite a bit as an understatement of its lack of commitment to any given pattern. BUT, if that pattern verifies for January, that is a barn stormer pattern for the Upper South. PNA (displaced slightly west) ridge which would send wicked cold south. That CFS pattern is less likely due to the PDO situation, but it has happened and cannot be discounted. Looks like blocking in the AO region would trump the PDO, and that is a reasonable scenario. I don't think January is a slam dunk. There are cold clusters of weak La Ninas for our region. This is a good example of why. The CFS and CANSIPS really couldn't be more different at our latitude.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Right now, I am just hoping we can cool down Dec-Feb before the heat returns. Running in +15-20 heat is not fun. Mornings have been nice. Afternoons have been terrible. But we will take today with its cool air before the torch returns next week. Next week will feel more like mid to late September....certainly not November. I still do expect this pattern to flip to winter later this month or early December...but there is certainly no consistent evidence of that on modeling...right now, just lots of much AN temps as the base pattern. Very summer like in fact.
  9. Carvers Gap
    I am seeing some LR signs of changes maybe in the Atlantic. If those changes occur, we could see substantial changes to winters after(and leading up to) 2030. And yes, the PDO is gonna park that trough in the Mountain West as a base winter pattern. There will be fluctuations I think, but this looks like a very warm winter coming up where Fall temps might be the norm and not actual winter temps.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Not only is there no sign of colder air during the next couple of weeks, I don’t see much even on the 6-7 week modeling. Caveat....LR modeling can easily miss cold air. I was thinking that I might go AN all winter. January still gives me trepidation. It wouldn’t shock me to see it cold. The longer this warm period goes...the more the anticipated December cool down potential gets pushed into January. But a least through next week...summer still persists - this isn’t fall weather, this is summer. Though today is a nice respite with drizzle.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Warm weather, with some minor cooler interludes, is still on wash, rinse, repeat. Cooler nights have kept our overall average from torching. However, this is one of the warmest falls I can remember. It is definitely one of the driest Octobers as we have only had 0.36" of rain. This is a textbook La Nina fall.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Really, no consistent cold pattern is showing up yet. This is definitely starting to look like extended+++ summer. I would think we see a pretty radical flip to cold with this with mid January through February being much AN. If we manage to carry this warm pattern through December, all bets are off.
  13. Carvers Gap
    The 0z had it again. The scenario is basically the "Sandy scenario" where a tropical system gets caught-up in a strong cold front. For those new to our forum this year, DB and I are just kicking this around. Really, we need rain. However, sometimes La Nina fall seasons can rapidly flip quite cold after endless summers. The 0z GEFS ensembles is supporting the ridge moving back West for an undetermined amount of time. I would guess it sticks out there from roughly Nov 7 to right before Christmas.
  14. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS has snow at 384 for some eastern areas. Lock it in.
  15. Carvers Gap
    After Helene, it has gone bone dry. Now, that dry weather is merciful to those drying to clean up and rebuild. It would have been next to impossible(if the rains continued) to fix anything with the amount of mud. There are also people living in tents and modified shelter right now. So, it is probably a blessing to them. But yeah for all the reasons mentioned above, there are potential problems ahead if we don't get some rain.
  16. Carvers Gap
    I just want ya'll to know that Neyland Stadium was covered in thick fog yesterday morning. When the smoke cleared...the men in orange stood triumphant. The GFS missed on that one.
  17. Carvers Gap
    It has been a wild weather month with Helene, the Aurora, the comet, and now some early season snow.
  18. Carvers Gap
    I read that during a brief search for earliest snowfalls in the Smokies. It seemed off as soon as I posted it! It is an interesting question of how early they have seen snow greater than or equal to 1".
  19. Carvers Gap
    I should add that records began during the late 1980s at that location. I feel almost certain snow has probably fallen earlier at 6000'. Still, that is an early start!
  20. Carvers Gap
    Mt Leconte had its first snow at almost the exact time last year! They had 4" of snow on Oct 16th. Last year was the second earliest reported there. So, I guess this makes today the second earliest reported there.
  21. Carvers Gap
    MRX listing snow chances for the Apps from 2:00PM today to 8:00AM tomorrow morning. Just tagging onto @fountainguy97's post.
  22. Carvers Gap
    I pretty much take the photo, and then max out the saturation. That first image....I was looking up and saw the sky get really light, and realized it was the greener hue of the northern lights.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The aurora is rocking’ in TRI.
  24. Carvers Gap
    I got up to Roan Mountain yesterday. It is mind boggling the amount of water that came down that mountain. I think the only thing that saved lives there was they had been through similar flooding recently, and the homes at risk then are not there now. The water volume (to me) looked worse this time around. The roads that windspeed shared above...that is what it looks like in the narrow valleys of that area. I looked down to check directions once, and looked up to see my lane completely missing.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Water conservation orders for NE TN were posted last night.... Our thoughts and prayers remain with our fellow Tennesseans dealing with the severity of damage caused by the storm,” said TDEC Commissioner David Salyers. “In this critical time of limited resources clean water is essential for recovery and we call upon all citizens in these affected areas to conserve as much water as is possible.” The counties where mandatory water conservation orders are in place for the entirety of the county are Sullivan, Carter, Johnson, Greene, Unicoi, and Washington. Parts of the following counties are under the mandatory water conservation order: Cocke (Newport Utilities), Sevier (Webb Utility District), and Jefferson (Dandridge). The call is for citizens to conserve any water that is for non-essential use. Examples of non-essential use of water are clothes washing, running dishwashers, landscaping irrigation, or washing cars.
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