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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    The above is just insane. Probably just the NAM....but man.
  2. Carvers Gap
  3. Carvers Gap
    We are under a flash flood warning, a flash flood watch, and a high wind warning.
  4. Carvers Gap
    May be time for you to get a cabin in Banner Elk! East Brainerd sounds like a further south version of Kingsport, man!
  5. Carvers Gap
    Someone remind me how to get a tweet to post w/ the graphic. @Stovepipe
  6. Carvers Gap
    MRX wind gust update.... https://x.com/NWSMorristown/status/1839373747046010952
  7. Carvers Gap
    That has now been updated and expanded for middle and west TN. A large patch of 4-6" amounts.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Depends on which part of mid-state. Some 12z models are cranking out high totals for portions of that area. WPC has 4-6" of rain for Nashville and points west. The NHC has the storm flat stalling over Nashville metro. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/154002.shtml?rainqpf#contents
  9. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, Opal made a wreck of the trails in the Smokies. It probably doesn't get the press that it should. It was a doozy. The wind and rain from that were bad in the southern Apps. I have been trying to think of that one all day. I appreciate the graphic. Opal and Hugo are probably the best matches in terms of recent tracks for my local. It seems like I am missing one more. The 12z HRRR and NAM bring the eye right over MRX!
  10. Carvers Gap
    Everything is slightly east of original modeling - so far. We are getting hammered up here. I notice Knoxville and Chattanoog hadn't been in the main rain band for as long. It will be interesting to see how it plays out once Helene actually gets to this latitude.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Nah, it was perfectly stated. I was just chiming-in on a great comparison. I was thinking/typing out loud...stream of thought stuff.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Hugo was a monster. If it hadn't gone into a national forest, it would have been far worse than Katrina. But oddly, I was just talking about this exact topic just a few minutes ago. The angle into the southern Apps is very similar. I don't think Helene will be as strong w/ the width of hurricane force winds that Hugo had, but there are some definite similarities to the track once inland. I was at UT at the time and was very surprised to see tropical storm for winds on campus. I don't know about the other inland low(Fujiwhara Effect) as I didn't follow stuff like that at the time. I think the danger right now is high winds hitting trees which sit in saturated ground. Maybe the one difference right now would be all of the rain that we already have had. I don't trust modeling at this point. Some of these storms will sometimes inexplicably stall or speed up or weaken. For now though, this looks very formidable for the southern Apps. Great post.
  13. Carvers Gap
    FXUS64 KMRX 261117 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 717 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 353 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Key Messages: 1. Flooding potential remains high as heavy, tropical downpours affect the area today into Friday. 2. Winds will be high in the mountains, which are areas that are used to strong winds. There is also the potential for widespread strong winds in the TN valley late Thu night through Fri morning. Discussion: Hurricane Helene is in focus for the period, and the impacts the decaying tropical system brings to our are are expected to be major. The current NHC track has it coming ashore then track north before curving northwest across southeast TN early Friday before being absorbed into the upper low to our west. The two main concerns with this system for us will be heavy rain/flooding and very strong winds. A precursor rain event has been ongoing, and we`ve already had a lot of rain across areas mainly along/east of the I-75 and I-81 corridors (in excess of 4 inches in spots). We will see additional heavy rain over these areas today, with a downtrend for a period west of the mountains for a period later today into tonight as the downslope winds increase and the axis of the more significant rain shifts south and west, then likely another increase area wide late tonight into early Friday as the tropical system approaches. WPC has rainfall from now through Friday evening of around 3 to 4+ inches over most of our area, with even higher amounts across portions of SW NC and the eastern mountains. The flood watch will be expanded into our northern Cumberland Plateau counties with this issuance. Both flash floods and river flooding is expected. For winds, some of the higher elevations of the mountains will see wind gusts in excess of 70 mph, but valleys are likely to see strong wind gusts as well later tonight into Friday morning. Mean HREF wind gusts are showing values of 50+ across much of the area outside of the mountains. While we may not reach actual wind warning wind speeds in most locations outside of the mountains, we will likely see a lot of trees down and power outages especially given the soggy ground. Given the uncertainties of exactly how strong Helene will get before landfall and it still being second period, and in coordination with neighboring offices, will leave the watch out for one more cycle. Will continue the high wind warning in the mountains. Will also continue the Tropical Storm warning for our SW NC counties in accordance with North Carolina partners.
  14. Carvers Gap
    We are already dealing with some flooding in NE TN, and the main system isn’t even here. Decently bleak afternoon disco by MRX.
  15. Carvers Gap
    That is impressive. Drought buster.
  16. Carvers Gap
    There is an interesting thought that Joe B used to make. It was this. Wherever it rained the most during fail usually ended-up with a pretty cold winter. We may be about to test that out.
  17. Carvers Gap
    We dodged one there, man. That was headed right towards us without a lot to disrupt it. I saw where MRX is maybe sending out a team to look at the damage today.
  18. Carvers Gap
    That isn't a whole lot different than the 18z RGEM. That is a pretty aggressive forecast.
  19. Carvers Gap
  20. Carvers Gap
    @Met1985, did you see the 18z RGEM. How much rain falls in W NC on that run!? @Windspeedthe 18z NAM looked a little more tame. The RGEM is "turn out the lights" bad for many areas in the mountains.
  21. Carvers Gap
    The system two weeks ago was handled very poorly by modeling. Just kind of saying that as a caveat, the 12z NAM would be a drought buster.
  22. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS paints a bleak picture for western NC with this next tropical system. With the upslope, that would have the potential for significant flooding IMHO. Downslope would protect most of E TN with the exception being SE TN.
  23. Carvers Gap
    It does look like the summer surface pattern is about to break down bigly. The tropics look active as we are pretty close to that double dip(two tropical maximums) common during La Nina. I would bet that when the last of the tropical systems scoot out(mid-late October), I bet it turns pretty cold.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Probably a big ol' tropical system right under that.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, as SOON as I talk about it, it goes away.
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