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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Moderate rain, some large river flooding. Winds are light but an increase since 6:00PM.
  2. Carvers Gap
    The latest update keeps this as a tropical storm well into middle TN.
  3. Carvers Gap
    That is wild.
  4. Carvers Gap
    If u need help, give me a shout. Saw is ready to go if needed.
  5. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambleranother interesting analog might be the superstorm of ‘93. Similar origin, track, and strength. Wonder if it had a low to the west?
  6. Carvers Gap
    National Weather Service Morristown TN 339 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 333 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Key Messages: 1. Major, near record flooding possible on French Broad and Pigeon rivers, with potential for life threatening flash flooding elsewhere. Some uncertainty in the far south and southwest though. 2. Widespread high wind event likely to unfold tonight into Friday morning. Expectations are that power outages, and downed trees will be very prevalent across the area. Discussion: A fairly historic situation is about to unfold across the southern Appalachian region over the next 24 hours as the remnants of Hurricane Helene move through. Synoptically speaking, Helene is rapidly gaining strength this afternoon and is expected to make landfall late this evening along the Florida coast. Afterwards, it will be quickly pulled northward through a gap between an upper low over western TN and a ridge over the western Atlantic. Ahead of the storm, tropical moisture will continue to be funneled into the southern Appalachian region, making for continued light to moderate rainfall across the forecast area before the last slug of tropical downpours arrive with the core of Helene late tonight into Friday morning. Flooding along with high winds continue to be the two main concerns with this event. Winds: The forward speed of this hurricane after landfall is expected to be on the extreme upper end of the spectrum. As such, the wind field will stay intact much further inland than normal. There remains some slight uncertainty in the center track of this storm, but the general consensus, along with the NHC track, brings the center across the southern TN valley around and shortly after daybreak tomorrow morning. Ahead of the system low level winds will turn southeasterly across the mountains, with winds in the higher terrain ramping up to warning levels by around 2 AM tonight. As the core of the system approaches the southern TN valley, winds in the lower elevations should ramp up considerably, especially down the TN valley as pressure gradients rapidly tighten. Those areas should see warning level winds arriving in the 5-7am time frame roughly. Believe that there will be some widespread areas of 55-65 mph winds in the TN valley, the plateau, and even areas up into our VA counties. Most trees still have their leaves on them, and these winds will occur with very saturated soils. As such, expect widespread power outages to occur tonight and tomorrow. Went ahead and upgraded the watch to a warning and now have our entire CWA is now covered by a high wind warning. This excludes our NC counties which are in a Tropical Storm Warning. I`m quite sure there will be some locations that do not see winds close to these values. But I think the likelihood of warning level gusts and resulting impacts warrants the upgrade. Rain & Flooding: Increasing southeasterly winds across the Appalachians will result in some rainshadowing effects and will cut down on additional rainfall north of I-40 relative to the southern valley tonight into Friday. However saturated soils mean that any additional rains will go immediately to runoff. Couple this with the immense amount of rains expected on the NC side of the border and some historic river flooding is expected in area rivers. The Pigeon and French Broad rivers in Newport will be very close to record crests with this event and that`s not to speak of the flash flooding potential across the area. The current forecast for the French Broad vier at newport is 23`, which is one foot shy of the record crest set in 1867! So, this is certainly an impressive event to say the least. Further south, additional rainfall amounts of 3-5" are expected in the southern valley and southern plateau with the approach/passing of the core of Helene. The uncertainty here is that those amounts closely match the 3hr and 6hr flash flood guidance values. Will the rainfall rates and amounts be enough on any time scale to overcome that and cause runoff and flooding issues? I`m not entirely sure. However, tropical events like this have a tendency to over perform, so will keep those areas within the flood watch and continue to advertise the possibility of flooding across the entirety of our forecast area with the remainder of this event.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Looks like maybe the model is not smoothing out things, but look what MRX noted....below
  8. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS is not much different.
  9. Carvers Gap
    The above is just insane. Probably just the NAM....but man.
  10. Carvers Gap
  11. Carvers Gap
    We are under a flash flood warning, a flash flood watch, and a high wind warning.
  12. Carvers Gap
    May be time for you to get a cabin in Banner Elk! East Brainerd sounds like a further south version of Kingsport, man!
  13. Carvers Gap
    Someone remind me how to get a tweet to post w/ the graphic. @Stovepipe
  14. Carvers Gap
    MRX wind gust update.... https://x.com/NWSMorristown/status/1839373747046010952
  15. Carvers Gap
    That has now been updated and expanded for middle and west TN. A large patch of 4-6" amounts.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Depends on which part of mid-state. Some 12z models are cranking out high totals for portions of that area. WPC has 4-6" of rain for Nashville and points west. The NHC has the storm flat stalling over Nashville metro. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/154002.shtml?rainqpf#contents
  17. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, Opal made a wreck of the trails in the Smokies. It probably doesn't get the press that it should. It was a doozy. The wind and rain from that were bad in the southern Apps. I have been trying to think of that one all day. I appreciate the graphic. Opal and Hugo are probably the best matches in terms of recent tracks for my local. It seems like I am missing one more. The 12z HRRR and NAM bring the eye right over MRX!
  18. Carvers Gap
    Everything is slightly east of original modeling - so far. We are getting hammered up here. I notice Knoxville and Chattanoog hadn't been in the main rain band for as long. It will be interesting to see how it plays out once Helene actually gets to this latitude.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Nah, it was perfectly stated. I was just chiming-in on a great comparison. I was thinking/typing out loud...stream of thought stuff.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Hugo was a monster. If it hadn't gone into a national forest, it would have been far worse than Katrina. But oddly, I was just talking about this exact topic just a few minutes ago. The angle into the southern Apps is very similar. I don't think Helene will be as strong w/ the width of hurricane force winds that Hugo had, but there are some definite similarities to the track once inland. I was at UT at the time and was very surprised to see tropical storm for winds on campus. I don't know about the other inland low(Fujiwhara Effect) as I didn't follow stuff like that at the time. I think the danger right now is high winds hitting trees which sit in saturated ground. Maybe the one difference right now would be all of the rain that we already have had. I don't trust modeling at this point. Some of these storms will sometimes inexplicably stall or speed up or weaken. For now though, this looks very formidable for the southern Apps. Great post.
  21. Carvers Gap
    FXUS64 KMRX 261117 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 717 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 353 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Key Messages: 1. Flooding potential remains high as heavy, tropical downpours affect the area today into Friday. 2. Winds will be high in the mountains, which are areas that are used to strong winds. There is also the potential for widespread strong winds in the TN valley late Thu night through Fri morning. Discussion: Hurricane Helene is in focus for the period, and the impacts the decaying tropical system brings to our are are expected to be major. The current NHC track has it coming ashore then track north before curving northwest across southeast TN early Friday before being absorbed into the upper low to our west. The two main concerns with this system for us will be heavy rain/flooding and very strong winds. A precursor rain event has been ongoing, and we`ve already had a lot of rain across areas mainly along/east of the I-75 and I-81 corridors (in excess of 4 inches in spots). We will see additional heavy rain over these areas today, with a downtrend for a period west of the mountains for a period later today into tonight as the downslope winds increase and the axis of the more significant rain shifts south and west, then likely another increase area wide late tonight into early Friday as the tropical system approaches. WPC has rainfall from now through Friday evening of around 3 to 4+ inches over most of our area, with even higher amounts across portions of SW NC and the eastern mountains. The flood watch will be expanded into our northern Cumberland Plateau counties with this issuance. Both flash floods and river flooding is expected. For winds, some of the higher elevations of the mountains will see wind gusts in excess of 70 mph, but valleys are likely to see strong wind gusts as well later tonight into Friday morning. Mean HREF wind gusts are showing values of 50+ across much of the area outside of the mountains. While we may not reach actual wind warning wind speeds in most locations outside of the mountains, we will likely see a lot of trees down and power outages especially given the soggy ground. Given the uncertainties of exactly how strong Helene will get before landfall and it still being second period, and in coordination with neighboring offices, will leave the watch out for one more cycle. Will continue the high wind warning in the mountains. Will also continue the Tropical Storm warning for our SW NC counties in accordance with North Carolina partners.
  22. Carvers Gap
    We are already dealing with some flooding in NE TN, and the main system isn’t even here. Decently bleak afternoon disco by MRX.
  23. Carvers Gap
    That is impressive. Drought buster.
  24. Carvers Gap
    There is an interesting thought that Joe B used to make. It was this. Wherever it rained the most during fail usually ended-up with a pretty cold winter. We may be about to test that out.
  25. Carvers Gap
    We dodged one there, man. That was headed right towards us without a lot to disrupt it. I saw where MRX is maybe sending out a team to look at the damage today.
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