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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    La Nina winters tend to have a very bad cold shot prior to mid-winter - as in withering. It is very difficult to know where that eastern boundary is going to set up. I have seen some crazy cold shots during Nina winters. We want the Nina to be weak. The QBO just flipped positive, so we are gonna be dealing with that this winter. It will be interesting to see if we have less Atlantic blocking. TBH, I am not sure we want Atlantic blocking if it is going to hook into an eastern ridge. We need that PDO to flip and get and EPO ridge out there. This does look like a winter where the default trough is going to tuck into the Mountain West. I just sense come variability this winter that might cause some problems in forecasting...Yeah, that sounds like trying to sense the force, and that is not a good forecasting strategy.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I have refrained from a winter outlook this summer. Normally, I am pretty confident by this time(about the upcoming winter). Right now, I would say AN temps and BN precip. BUT....something is really nagging me about this set-up. Most LR modeling is very warm. It is either wall-to-wall for Jan-Feb warm w/ Dec normal. That is probably my guess. Nov-Dec (cold) w/ Jan to Feb well above normal. Last winter didn't behave. Additionally, I am not overly confident in the IO right now. It seems to drive our weather us much as the PDO. I might have to do some digging. We are due in E TN for some cold winters. John notes that winters tend to group together - meaning a stretch of bad winters or a stretch of cold winters. The EC is beyond overdo for Nor'Easters. Storm track this winter "should" favor the Plateau westward. That I feel pretty good about.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Not a drop here. TRI struggles to break droughts. We are in a rain shadow anyway. I can see the lines of rain hit the dry air and poof. I do think that problem will slowly erode this week and allow some rain in. BUT, we had better get rain in the next two weeks. Even though temps are expected to moderate in the near to longer term...rain chances drop on modeling as we head into fall. John, send some of that rain over here! Congrats on the score.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Been a long of run of crazy hot temps. Looks like a decent little break incoming. @nrgjeffcalled this one from waaaay out.
  5. Carvers Gap
    97F at TRI today. Maybe 3-4 more days of this, and then a welcome, welcome break.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Good post.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Just a few more days of this, and then I think we get a much needed break from excessive heat and maybe the beginning of a slow climb out of drought conditions. The 12z GFS is our ticket out of this.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Nice little break still on modeling (ensembles and ext ensembles) sometime around or just after the 20th(edit). I don't trust the extended length of seasonal to BN temps being shown....but will gladly take it. Seasonal is still warm during August, so please remember that....just not wall-to-wall furnace.
  9. Carvers Gap
  10. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, we are messing around with some hot analogs!!!!!! Rough stretch coming up.
  11. Carvers Gap
    MRX.... In the upper levels, the trough over the Midwest and Ohio Valley will weaken late Friday. A broad trough will remain over the Great Lakes and Northeast through the weekend as a ridge out west moves into the Great Plains by Monday. A weak ridge (an extension of the Bermuda-Azores High) will be over the Southeast. At the surface, a weak pressure gradient is in place. Temps will rebound Friday and Saturday. Hot weather is expected this weekend with highs in the 90s. Early next week highs may approach records. The good news is that humidity will be fairly low with dew points in the 60s expected to continue through at least this weekend due to westerly surface winds and mostly sunny skies allowing for good mixing conditions. Early next week highs will approach 100 degrees in the Southern and Central Tennessee Valleys. Heat indices may be close to advisory criteria (105) by Tuesday and Wednesday. Unfortunately, rain chances are very low for most locations with the best chances in the East Tennessee Mountains and SW North Carolina due to intense surface heating of south facing slopes. By Tuesday or Wednesday, low rain chances may return to the Valley if a system is able to make it this far south.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Man, on social media this morning MRX paints a bleak picture for next week...expansion of drought and heat. We need this pattern to break after the 20th. Next week is gonna leave a serious mark. We potentially could be seeing a historic event next week in terms of heat.
  13. Carvers Gap
    I thought we might be in some rarefied air in portions of E TN....there is 1988 in the mix. I wasn't in the US for the summer of 1993. It seems like the MS flooded then. I was watching from 7 time zones away. Interesting to see Minnesota with flooding now.
  14. Carvers Gap
    What is crazy is that I "think" the airport got a little bit of rain which capped the temps late yesterday afternoon. Man, it was crazy hot in Kingsport yesterday. Everything is just fried today, because of it. I don't like tropical systems which just graze us w/ no rain. That sinking air makes is so much worse.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Today feels 100% better. I won't last, but lower humidity and cooler temps is a nice respite. And yes, the new Euro seasonals are a big time crapfest of heat and dry weather. I lean CANSIPS, but the Euro seasonals are a worst case scenario.
  16. Carvers Gap
    TRI appears to be the hottest reporting station in E TN right now. Temp is already 92 w/ a heat index of 101.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Part of the reason we are getting the coast to coast air fryer this summer is two fold: 1. La Nina has taken hold and it has gotten dry in easter NA which often correlates with hot temps. 2. Several areas in the West(northwest and mountain west) didn't get enough water last winter due to El Nino, and their snow pack has gone poof in some of those areas. That allows the heat to build. Their f!re season (which I hate even discussing on a public forum) has started early. We were in Oregon a couple of weeks ago. We saw Darlene 3 grow from ~2.5 acres to ~2500 acres in 24 hours. I have seen plenty of those seasons out West. That is probably the quickest I have seen one get going that quickly. The state of Oregon had 400 people, several dozers, and tankers on it within 24 hours. They had it under control in about 3-4 days....just beyond impressive.
  18. Carvers Gap
    I "think" (and credit to Jeff for the original idea) this pattern at least relaxes in 10-11 days. That has been moving forward on modeling consistently. There is at least some evidence in modeling that this could be a legitimate pattern change. If I had a nickel for every time I have said that(and been wrong), I would be a wealthy man. I do think endless summer(meaning summer persists well into Sept and Oct) is likely just based on analogs. That said, right now there is not a lot of LR model support for that. I think seasonal(which is still hot) to slightly AN looks like how we might finish out summer. I really don't think fall will arrive on time due to La Nina, but the CANSIPS run for July 1 thinks maybe so. I am not ready to say the worst of summer will be behind us (once we reach July 20), but that is on the table. Until then, heat and drought are gonna be a mainstay over much of E TN.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Higher elevations out West are awesome. Cool mornings and low humidity are the best. Put Bend, Oregon, on your list. Similar wx setup with a few more amenities, easy access to the mountains, and less crowds. The West is cooking this week, but that is pretty abnormal. We really enjoy the PAC Northwest and Mountain West. In my book, it gets me one less week of summer.
  20. Carvers Gap
    I see that MRX has noted that rapid onset of drought is possible over much of the forum area this week. High temps plus very little rainfall is going to cause likely problems. 1234, yep. It is really hot during the afternoons. This reminds me a lot of 1988.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Cool nights and warm days w/ low humidity for YNP. You all may see some frost in West Yell this week. As for E TN, two more weeks in the furnace, and then as Jeff noted earlier, a break appears on the horizon. The new Cansips wants seasonal for August through December. I still think we see endless summer, but will gladly eat some crow if wrong. We need to break the drought ASAP or the return to seasonal is going to be very tough to attain in NE TN. The TS is going to create very hot temps early in the week. My general rule of thumb with tropical systems is we don't want to be grazed by them(if we need the rain). Why? Sinking air on its periphery creates crazy hot temps - E TN is gonna likely roast without a last minute course change. Downslope winds during summer are no bueno.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Drought begets drought.
  23. Carvers Gap
    I drove from Nashville to TRI on Monday. The differences are stark...from green to crispy brown. You can really tell the areas that missed on storms last week. One could drive from green to charred grass in about 5-10 miles and then back to green....kind of like that from the Plateau all the way to TRI. But drought has taken hold during June...I hope that reverses. I don't really have any reason to think that we see a lot more precip...unless the tropics bail us out or that we can establish an afternoon thunderstorm regime. Once drought is established, it can be very hard to break it without a tropical system.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Over the Mountain West(consequence of El Nino winter) and over much of the forum area, the drought monitor has started to light up during the past month. I suspect much of Oregon is about the be added to this. Streams in Shenandoah National Park are closed to fishing as some streams are running completely dry in sections - meaning you can walk right across without getting your feet wet. Hopefully, we see this ease up during the coming couple of weeks over the forum area. I really don't like where this is headed FWIW.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Looks like a break from the heat (duration TBD) is on the near horizon. Meanwhile, the Pac NW is about to fry.....just some crazy, crazy high temps in places that don't normally get that hot. I really don't like a weather pattern where extreme heat is in the equation. That pattern seems to often work its way eastward. I'd love to be able to say the worst of summer is behind us, but I really doubt it. For now, enjoy the break. Every week that we get through July without oppressive heat is a win.
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