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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Ain't nobody (sorry, had to roll w/ that) wants to be the one talk about BN temps for the next several weeks of summer. Because if that signal is wrong (and climatology says it should be wrong), that is all kinds of egg on one's face. But I am just saying, medium, LR, and ext LR modeling is not looking bad in terms of temps. In fact, if right, fall would be right on time or a bit early (gasp). But I am not gonna be the one to say that or make a long post on it. LOL. @Holston_River_Rambler, we are gonna need a wooly worm update.
  2. Carvers Gap
    It wasn't a lot, but we can make do with that if we keep getting more this week. Maybe 0.15-0.20 of rain fell IMBY this afternoon. The birds were out in force during the rain...robins, juvenile blue birds, and others were taking advantage of the rain. It may take several months for yards to recover here...maybe even 6-12 months for full recovery.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Starting to see sycamores and river bottom trees turn yellow. Some of that is caused by heat stress - probably most of it. But there is definitely color showing on I-26 crossing Bays Mountain. I think most of that is drought, but it is a bit surreal to see that on July 18th. Even though, we haven't had any rain IMBY, it is cloudy today. The clouds are definitely bringing out the yellow colors.
  4. Carvers Gap
    No additional rain IMBY. It looks like SW VA is getting some relief as rain is sliding across that area. Rain is having a very tough time getting into the norther Valley - just dissipates on the spot. Pretty big miss for us, even if we get some rain later in the day. We need every drop.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Sitting on maybe 2-3 hundredths at best. We have a shot to break that tomorrow. Not sure I remember what a good soaker looks like.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Most of what is coming through TRI just dissipating rapidly. I was thinking today (and I said this before) that I have seen more snowstorms during winter than I have seen meaningful rain since May. Rain has become as rare as snow! LOL. Getting a few sprinkles as I type this....but that will be it for this round. You know it is bad when the rain drops are kicking up dust.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Tough to get appreciable rain to fall into this hot, dry air. It is basically hitting a wall west of me. Let's hope it chips away at that during the next few days. This is going to be tough to break.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Ditto that.
  9. Carvers Gap
    La Nina winters tend to have a very bad cold shot prior to mid-winter - as in withering. It is very difficult to know where that eastern boundary is going to set up. I have seen some crazy cold shots during Nina winters. We want the Nina to be weak. The QBO just flipped positive, so we are gonna be dealing with that this winter. It will be interesting to see if we have less Atlantic blocking. TBH, I am not sure we want Atlantic blocking if it is going to hook into an eastern ridge. We need that PDO to flip and get and EPO ridge out there. This does look like a winter where the default trough is going to tuck into the Mountain West. I just sense come variability this winter that might cause some problems in forecasting...Yeah, that sounds like trying to sense the force, and that is not a good forecasting strategy.
  10. Carvers Gap
    I have refrained from a winter outlook this summer. Normally, I am pretty confident by this time(about the upcoming winter). Right now, I would say AN temps and BN precip. BUT....something is really nagging me about this set-up. Most LR modeling is very warm. It is either wall-to-wall for Jan-Feb warm w/ Dec normal. That is probably my guess. Nov-Dec (cold) w/ Jan to Feb well above normal. Last winter didn't behave. Additionally, I am not overly confident in the IO right now. It seems to drive our weather us much as the PDO. I might have to do some digging. We are due in E TN for some cold winters. John notes that winters tend to group together - meaning a stretch of bad winters or a stretch of cold winters. The EC is beyond overdo for Nor'Easters. Storm track this winter "should" favor the Plateau westward. That I feel pretty good about.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Not a drop here. TRI struggles to break droughts. We are in a rain shadow anyway. I can see the lines of rain hit the dry air and poof. I do think that problem will slowly erode this week and allow some rain in. BUT, we had better get rain in the next two weeks. Even though temps are expected to moderate in the near to longer term...rain chances drop on modeling as we head into fall. John, send some of that rain over here! Congrats on the score.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Been a long of run of crazy hot temps. Looks like a decent little break incoming. @nrgjeffcalled this one from waaaay out.
  13. Carvers Gap
    97F at TRI today. Maybe 3-4 more days of this, and then a welcome, welcome break.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Good post.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Just a few more days of this, and then I think we get a much needed break from excessive heat and maybe the beginning of a slow climb out of drought conditions. The 12z GFS is our ticket out of this.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Nice little break still on modeling (ensembles and ext ensembles) sometime around or just after the 20th(edit). I don't trust the extended length of seasonal to BN temps being shown....but will gladly take it. Seasonal is still warm during August, so please remember that....just not wall-to-wall furnace.
  17. Carvers Gap
  18. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, we are messing around with some hot analogs!!!!!! Rough stretch coming up.
  19. Carvers Gap
    MRX.... In the upper levels, the trough over the Midwest and Ohio Valley will weaken late Friday. A broad trough will remain over the Great Lakes and Northeast through the weekend as a ridge out west moves into the Great Plains by Monday. A weak ridge (an extension of the Bermuda-Azores High) will be over the Southeast. At the surface, a weak pressure gradient is in place. Temps will rebound Friday and Saturday. Hot weather is expected this weekend with highs in the 90s. Early next week highs may approach records. The good news is that humidity will be fairly low with dew points in the 60s expected to continue through at least this weekend due to westerly surface winds and mostly sunny skies allowing for good mixing conditions. Early next week highs will approach 100 degrees in the Southern and Central Tennessee Valleys. Heat indices may be close to advisory criteria (105) by Tuesday and Wednesday. Unfortunately, rain chances are very low for most locations with the best chances in the East Tennessee Mountains and SW North Carolina due to intense surface heating of south facing slopes. By Tuesday or Wednesday, low rain chances may return to the Valley if a system is able to make it this far south.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Man, on social media this morning MRX paints a bleak picture for next week...expansion of drought and heat. We need this pattern to break after the 20th. Next week is gonna leave a serious mark. We potentially could be seeing a historic event next week in terms of heat.
  21. Carvers Gap
    I thought we might be in some rarefied air in portions of E TN....there is 1988 in the mix. I wasn't in the US for the summer of 1993. It seems like the MS flooded then. I was watching from 7 time zones away. Interesting to see Minnesota with flooding now.
  22. Carvers Gap
    What is crazy is that I "think" the airport got a little bit of rain which capped the temps late yesterday afternoon. Man, it was crazy hot in Kingsport yesterday. Everything is just fried today, because of it. I don't like tropical systems which just graze us w/ no rain. That sinking air makes is so much worse.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Today feels 100% better. I won't last, but lower humidity and cooler temps is a nice respite. And yes, the new Euro seasonals are a big time crapfest of heat and dry weather. I lean CANSIPS, but the Euro seasonals are a worst case scenario.
  24. Carvers Gap
    TRI appears to be the hottest reporting station in E TN right now. Temp is already 92 w/ a heat index of 101.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Part of the reason we are getting the coast to coast air fryer this summer is two fold: 1. La Nina has taken hold and it has gotten dry in easter NA which often correlates with hot temps. 2. Several areas in the West(northwest and mountain west) didn't get enough water last winter due to El Nino, and their snow pack has gone poof in some of those areas. That allows the heat to build. Their f!re season (which I hate even discussing on a public forum) has started early. We were in Oregon a couple of weeks ago. We saw Darlene 3 grow from ~2.5 acres to ~2500 acres in 24 hours. I have seen plenty of those seasons out West. That is probably the quickest I have seen one get going that quickly. The state of Oregon had 400 people, several dozers, and tankers on it within 24 hours. They had it under control in about 3-4 days....just beyond impressive.
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