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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    We are sitting at 50F here at TRI, and that is a new record low.
  2. Carvers Gap
    If Knoxville gets to 56 tonight, they will break a record set in 1875.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Potential record lows in many areas tomorrow morning?
  4. Carvers Gap
    La Nina’s can be tricky. We had decent end to July and start to August in terms of precip. This La Niña is not playing nice - meaning it isn’t following the usual pattern of La Niña. Maybe it is technically not a Niña...but still in transition. That might be the reason for the bipolar nature of this summer.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Looks like one or two more 3-7 day warm spells and that might be it until October when we might (or might not) see the last gasp of heat. There are some intermittent signals that fall could be chilly, but I am not quite ready to go there yet. Climatology would support extended summer....but I have been fairly guarded coming into this fall and winter. I tend to go with BN temps for mid-Nov to the last week of Dec, and then torch. But I don't like the footing I am on right now. If we don't have extended summer, it might be time to rethink winter. We are about to hit shoulder season, and LR ext models go to total crap during that time. But we could see some pretty wild swings this fall if those ext runs are even close to being correct. I would not be shocked to see a pretty cold shot during September.
  6. Carvers Gap
    It feels so much better today. I really don't like tropical systems and the sinking air on the outer edges - like a furnace! Winds are out of the north, and the breeze feels great. It looks like this TS system will shake-up the wx pattern again as we have decent looking temps (for this time of year) for the foreseeable future.
  7. Carvers Gap
    It totally split as it came through west of I-81. This has been the problem all summer. We are definitely doing better on water. But one really, hot dry week and we will be right back in the barrel. It is nice to see things greening up though!
  8. Carvers Gap
    Charter cable is running NWS EAS announcement for Knoxville like every 2-3 minutes. I don't ever remember having so many t-storm warning NWS announcements on TV. It is non-stop. There is almost no TV content.
  9. Carvers Gap
    We (MBY) have finally cashed-in with some MCS-ish systems during the past couple of days. We have had some heavy rainfall at times along with some minor urban flooding. Just an item of interest. MRX used FB for a Q&A session a couple of days ago. It is super interesting. Of note, they talk about radar being able to pick up trains on clear and stable nights across the Great Plains. Whoever answered the question new the exact train line. There was also some discussion about each AFD is uniquely written, and you can tell who the forecaster is when they write. I have always suspected that we know the person who writes about mountain wave events. Anyway, some great questions and answers are found in that FB post by MRX.
  10. Carvers Gap
    There was some pretty severe flooding in DollyWood earlier this evening. These storms are slow movers.
  11. Carvers Gap
    This has been a soaker north of I-81 around TRI this morning. It is just pouring.
  12. Carvers Gap
    @John1122, that summer of '93 analog is growing on me. 93-94 was cold, right? Super cold on the Plateau and froze the interstate in Knoxville. 1993 has remarkable similarities to this one, especially the flooding in the Upper Plains(was mid Plains/mid-West in 93) and drought here. It is one reason why I am less than confident about this winter. Seems like I saw you mention that (could have been 95). 94-95 would work as I think we came out of a warm Nino winter and then maybe went Nina?
  13. Carvers Gap
    I think this deal was of geothermal origin. Steamboat maybe has similar types of events....big rocks and better be way back when it goes. It looks like this came from the sapphire pool in Biscuit Basin. I have done a lot of fishing in the YNP area. There is so much volatility. Earthquake Lake has an amazing history. I hope you all had a great time. It is one of the best places on Earth. I have done some serious flyfishing in that area. The crowds of recent years have forced me to look at other places - like 3x more people than what it used to be. We really like Island Park and the Paradise Valley - try getting a place w/ the Emigrant Peak view if you haven't already. This summer, we ended up fishing on another volcano, and also sight seeing in the Cascades. But truly, there are so many ways to get into trouble in YNP...it looks tame but it really is not even remotely. Hey, one time I was fishing the Fountain Flats area. I was wading at dusk and having a good go of it. I happened to look down, and there was a massive spring that I was about to step into - crazy deep. It shook me pretty good. I don't wade in that area much any more. But for every crazy story, there is the one where I got to fish in 5" of snow on a June 14th many years ago.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Yes, I remember that I knew someone who just went out there! By a miracle, nobody was hit by any of those flying rocks. The still photos are even wilder. There was some big stuff in the air!!!!
  15. Carvers Gap
    Biscuit Basin in YNP had a bit of a hiccup today...worth a watch.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Finally, some decent rain has fallen IMBY today. It has taken all week to really break down the dry weather pattern here. I suspect this is a temporary relaxation of the drought....probably see dry weather return later in August.
  17. Carvers Gap
    You are bringing the good stuff, man. Yeah, SER signal for sure. BN SSTs over phases 7-8 of the MJO and AN SSTs 4-6. That means the MJO is likely in warm phases. So, we are gonna need the IO to say super quiet in order to keep the MJO at low amplitude. IO looks normal or very slightly above in regards to SST. Jan-Feb look like a torch. In the eastern half of the forum, we are gonna likely have to score early. But as weird as winters have been lately....I don't have a good sense. What do you have on the PDO, Jax?
  18. Carvers Gap
    Ain't nobody (sorry, had to roll w/ that) wants to be the one talk about BN temps for the next several weeks of summer. Because if that signal is wrong (and climatology says it should be wrong), that is all kinds of egg on one's face. But I am just saying, medium, LR, and ext LR modeling is not looking bad in terms of temps. In fact, if right, fall would be right on time or a bit early (gasp). But I am not gonna be the one to say that or make a long post on it. LOL. @Holston_River_Rambler, we are gonna need a wooly worm update.
  19. Carvers Gap
    It wasn't a lot, but we can make do with that if we keep getting more this week. Maybe 0.15-0.20 of rain fell IMBY this afternoon. The birds were out in force during the rain...robins, juvenile blue birds, and others were taking advantage of the rain. It may take several months for yards to recover here...maybe even 6-12 months for full recovery.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Starting to see sycamores and river bottom trees turn yellow. Some of that is caused by heat stress - probably most of it. But there is definitely color showing on I-26 crossing Bays Mountain. I think most of that is drought, but it is a bit surreal to see that on July 18th. Even though, we haven't had any rain IMBY, it is cloudy today. The clouds are definitely bringing out the yellow colors.
  21. Carvers Gap
    No additional rain IMBY. It looks like SW VA is getting some relief as rain is sliding across that area. Rain is having a very tough time getting into the norther Valley - just dissipates on the spot. Pretty big miss for us, even if we get some rain later in the day. We need every drop.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Sitting on maybe 2-3 hundredths at best. We have a shot to break that tomorrow. Not sure I remember what a good soaker looks like.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Most of what is coming through TRI just dissipating rapidly. I was thinking today (and I said this before) that I have seen more snowstorms during winter than I have seen meaningful rain since May. Rain has become as rare as snow! LOL. Getting a few sprinkles as I type this....but that will be it for this round. You know it is bad when the rain drops are kicking up dust.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Tough to get appreciable rain to fall into this hot, dry air. It is basically hitting a wall west of me. Let's hope it chips away at that during the next few days. This is going to be tough to break.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Ditto that.
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