Carvers Gap

NWS-MRX is posting some photos now of the Morristown damage. Looks like 2-4" wind driven hail. And let me tell you from experience(not this year knock on wood), that sucks.

That t-storm complex damaged a school in Hamblin according to the Times-Tribune. NO injuries were reported though some students have had to be relocated as they assess damage. https://www.citizentribune.com/news/update-severe-weather-blasts-through-morristown-surrounding-areas/article_29233634-0d50-11ef-b9bd-87889de4b563.html East side of Cherokee Lake did experience golfball to baseball size hail.

I am not liking this.

Blizzard warnings in the western Plains of Montana.

You can just take it to the bank...when I put the warm season plants in my garden, it is going to head for BN temps. Just take it to the bank.

So, the cold snap in mid-Jan wiped out my grape vines(entire plant). I just replanted today. They were new, so they were more fragile....but man.

TRI finished with about 70-75% of normal rainfall for the month of April and +2.1F. Yesterday morning it rained. When I mowed by midday the moisture was almost gone on the grass. Not good to be BN normal w/ precip during spring. Hopefully, that turns around. Lately, ext LR modeling is really, really struggling IMO. That said, if one just uses ENSO state, wx patterns have been pretty consistent w/ a transition to La Nina.

SER land!!! I like it. We may have to pass this winter by tracking storms in the Mountain West.

It appears that summer is here. I don't think those Weeklies(which were cool) are gonna work out. Looks warm for the foreseeable future. Summer has started early, and that often means a VERY hot July-October. TRI is only +1.7 but it has felt much warmer than that. Late April to October is likely summer this year. Hope I am wrong on that.

In NE TN, most La Nina patterns are dry. With the IO and Nina potentially being out of sync, I am not sure what that yields in terms of precip here. It seems like some La Nina patterns have been soakers here, but lately, more dry. I do think the pattern might be much more variable than I had originally thought re: summer. I do think a good chunk of fall and winter will be much AN in terms of temps. I would suspect fall turns very dry. La Nina across our forum can produce quite different results.

I reactivated my WxBell account after a brief hiatus. LR seasonal outlooks are not showing a torch quite yet which is contrary to my thought process. Now, the warm spring fits La Nina along with BN rainfall. Next winter looks like a torch...no easy way to put it, but that is a long way off and things will likely change. That said, this summer doesn't look as warm as I thought. HOWEVER, if the BN rainfall continues(check regional airport to see if that applies to you or just look out the window)....heat will likely build into those areas.

Areas of frost possible tonight.

I do think for my winter ideas (24-25'), I am going to use IO forecasts as part of the overall equation, and give it fairly heavy weight. It has been driving the MJO during recent winters. IO/MJ, ENSO, and PDO will have the heaviest weight. NAO will have some weight, but it is nearly impossible to predict at this range.

I haven't looked at a forecast re: the IO this winter...so know that before reading these IO posts. The positive phase should peak during late fall according to this article. However, with La Nina in place, it does appear that having a positive IO and a La Nina is wrinkle that maybe I wasn't expecting. The positive IO(if it holds into our winter) would potentially suppress the warmer phases of the MJO signal. Now, my guess would be that area warms back up right as our winter hits. I do think that does raise the potential for a cooler last half of November and a cold start to winter. Then, as the IO flips negative, we get very warm in eastern NA. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/meet-enso’s-neighbor-indian-ocean-dipole

An interesting read about Australia's upcoming winter - of course not ours as the hemispheres are completely different. There are some good nuggets about the positive IO and La Nina which might be a rare(?) combination according to the article. I don't remember that being a rare combo, but that is interesting if true. https://snowbrains.com/as-australias-el-nino-period-ends-australian-snow-fields-are-potentially-facing-rare-la-nina-positive-iod-winter/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR2DJjuRqmpHuYt-GzTVh3qbq-p1vzI2RSuPR4qZdGP4BMZxIpnOyci1Rqc_aem_ASUlkc31A6QNB9K2ZkHNxOcQhU5jpJ3vKHsqEWTqpIe0lzl8t0a6gzw1HNpSq5mcae4SE-GnVb8O020ZJ-_HTbF7

Sadly, no cicadas here IMBY. They bring up huge fish.

When we see it get hot in April, look out. Looking like a potentially VERY hot summer on tap - starts early and ends late. I think we are looking at May to mid-October w/ AN temps. Hopefully some cooler weeks thrown in to buffer what could be a scorcher.

If we have a good winter @Holston_River_Rambler, the red salamander is the key.

I would guess we have had gusts well over 40mph.

Incredibly windy today.

In looking at the ENSO forecast for next winter (growing chances of a strong super Nina...maybe extreme), I think the chances for winter weather are going to be front end, and then potential torch after that. The SER is very likely going to be a problem. The only silver lining, this may be so strong...there might be few analogs that actually match it. The PDO is forecast to remain negative....very strong warm signals paired for January and February. We will have to have a very strong -NAO(tough to predict in advance) to counter what could be an MJO that will park itself in 4-5-6 w/ cold water over regions 8-1. I think the Mountain West is set to score a massive winter.

Looks like maybe two more trough amplifications in the East. This has "late freeze" written all over it for gardeners who are going to try to plan early. This just seems like one of those patterns that stays very warm for several days/weeks and then flips crazy cold for 2-3 days.

Saw some social media posts (4/4) for Roan Mountain. Looks like the first bald had maybe 3-4" of snow. It is nearly impossible to tell the exact amount from a photo, but the wind also moved a lot of the snow around. Just based on the reports from LeConte, that amount sounds about right. It has fell like winter for the past few days. Looks like we are back to spring like temps next week, though!

We had sleet here a minute ago. RadarScope has frozen precip over portions of the TRI region.

Reports of light snow in Wise and Tazewll, VA, at this hour.