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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    I "think" (and credit to Jeff for the original idea) this pattern at least relaxes in 10-11 days. That has been moving forward on modeling consistently. There is at least some evidence in modeling that this could be a legitimate pattern change. If I had a nickel for every time I have said that(and been wrong), I would be a wealthy man. I do think endless summer(meaning summer persists well into Sept and Oct) is likely just based on analogs. That said, right now there is not a lot of LR model support for that. I think seasonal(which is still hot) to slightly AN looks like how we might finish out summer. I really don't think fall will arrive on time due to La Nina, but the CANSIPS run for July 1 thinks maybe so. I am not ready to say the worst of summer will be behind us (once we reach July 20), but that is on the table. Until then, heat and drought are gonna be a mainstay over much of E TN.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Higher elevations out West are awesome. Cool mornings and low humidity are the best. Put Bend, Oregon, on your list. Similar wx setup with a few more amenities, easy access to the mountains, and less crowds. The West is cooking this week, but that is pretty abnormal. We really enjoy the PAC Northwest and Mountain West. In my book, it gets me one less week of summer.
  3. Carvers Gap
    I see that MRX has noted that rapid onset of drought is possible over much of the forum area this week. High temps plus very little rainfall is going to cause likely problems. 1234, yep. It is really hot during the afternoons. This reminds me a lot of 1988.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Cool nights and warm days w/ low humidity for YNP. You all may see some frost in West Yell this week. As for E TN, two more weeks in the furnace, and then as Jeff noted earlier, a break appears on the horizon. The new Cansips wants seasonal for August through December. I still think we see endless summer, but will gladly eat some crow if wrong. We need to break the drought ASAP or the return to seasonal is going to be very tough to attain in NE TN. The TS is going to create very hot temps early in the week. My general rule of thumb with tropical systems is we don't want to be grazed by them(if we need the rain). Why? Sinking air on its periphery creates crazy hot temps - E TN is gonna likely roast without a last minute course change. Downslope winds during summer are no bueno.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Drought begets drought.
  6. Carvers Gap
    I drove from Nashville to TRI on Monday. The differences are stark...from green to crispy brown. You can really tell the areas that missed on storms last week. One could drive from green to charred grass in about 5-10 miles and then back to green....kind of like that from the Plateau all the way to TRI. But drought has taken hold during June...I hope that reverses. I don't really have any reason to think that we see a lot more precip...unless the tropics bail us out or that we can establish an afternoon thunderstorm regime. Once drought is established, it can be very hard to break it without a tropical system.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Over the Mountain West(consequence of El Nino winter) and over much of the forum area, the drought monitor has started to light up during the past month. I suspect much of Oregon is about the be added to this. Streams in Shenandoah National Park are closed to fishing as some streams are running completely dry in sections - meaning you can walk right across without getting your feet wet. Hopefully, we see this ease up during the coming couple of weeks over the forum area. I really don't like where this is headed FWIW.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Looks like a break from the heat (duration TBD) is on the near horizon. Meanwhile, the Pac NW is about to fry.....just some crazy, crazy high temps in places that don't normally get that hot. I really don't like a weather pattern where extreme heat is in the equation. That pattern seems to often work its way eastward. I'd love to be able to say the worst of summer is behind us, but I really doubt it. For now, enjoy the break. Every week that we get through July without oppressive heat is a win.
  9. Carvers Gap
    TRI tied the record high yesterday with 96F. That record was set in 1988 which is a summer we want no part of.
  10. Carvers Gap
    We have hit 90 or higher at TRI 11 of the last 12 days. We hit 96 this week which is flirting with some rare air.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Crazy the differences in micro climates here. Large portions of the eastern areas of the forum have been added to the abnormally dry area of the drought monitor and some areas are listed as having initial drought situations. TRI, until last night, was probably flirting with a top 2-3 all-time, dry June. TRI’s temps have been much above normal and flirting with exceptionally hot for June. We sit at 0.81” of rain for the month with overnight total yet to be added. The average high for the entire month is around 86F which is about +3 for highs.
  12. Carvers Gap
    I hear it is getting pretty hot in OMAHA!!!!!
  13. Carvers Gap
    SW VA is starting to dry out. The drought monitor map has that area as being abnormally dry. NE TN is definitely dry. My yard is taking a hit for sure. We have been equal or greater than 90F for the last six out of seven days. That is how a drought gets going. Hopefully next week provides some relief. We only have had 0.80" of rain during June. We average 2.70." It has been two weeks since appreciable rainfall has fallen here. Combine that with high temps, trouble "could" be brewing later this summer and into fall. The North Fork of the Holston is definitely getting low...way to early for it to be as low as it is right now.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Winter storm watches are posted for Montana.
  15. Carvers Gap
    No surprise that the GFS/GEFS at 12z want no part of the death ridge. It is Americans vs Euro/Canadians. Isn't it always?
  16. Carvers Gap
    Well, it would appear that summer is about to get hot about during the timeframe when summer normally gets hot. I concur w/ extended summer outlooks going well into September and even early October. BUT, I am just a bit wary(more so than normal) of LR ext modeling right now. Nina "should" be hot and dry....sometimes really hot and dry IMBY. As John noted, some Nina summers are actually AN for precip. The Apps should be drier than normal through winter. BUT, I am losing confidence that modeling has this nailed down. Too much jumping around on operationals....really all over the place. I suspect the eventual net result will be AN temps for an extended period of time, BUT less than confident right now. This pattern almost feels like it will flip as soon as we go "all in" on hot weather. TX and Plains' heat ridge combo usually means we get very hot here. We'll see....
  17. Carvers Gap
    Nice downpour here this afternoon after missing multiple chances during the past couple of days. We have done ok w/ rain during the past month after a concerning start around parts of TRI. We don't have the big totals to our west, but it'll do for now. Looks like on-and-off rain chances for the next 7-10 days. Overall, it has been good "garden weather." That means not too much rain and cool(not cold) overnight temps along w/ warm days. I have found that slightly dry water amounts is 10x better than too rainy. This year I am working on watering less and getting plants to extend their roots downward more.
  18. Carvers Gap
    So summer did not start early. After a bit of a false start to summer, the pattern has settled back to a late spring temp cycle...nice days and cool nights. I fully expect summer to be hot, but the longer we can delay the heat...the less heat that we get. August and September (prob part of October) is certainly better than mid-May to mid October. The great thing once we get to mid September, at least the nights cool off.
  19. Carvers Gap
    I thought about putting this in banter, but considering it is a slow time of year, I think this maybe belongs here. For 5 years I have followed a super informative website in western Wyoming. I have shared some of it here from time to time. All that I knew was that he knew his stuff and that he had worked in the storm center in Oklahoma before retiring to western Wyoming. Well, it turns out...he was a a leader in the field of severe weather forecasting. He passed away last week, and I thought that I would share his wikipedia page in his honor. He had issued 5,540 storm warnings by the time he had retired. I am guessing some of you probably knew him. I had no idea. Check out the storms he worked: March 29,1984 Carolinas tornado outbreak. March 12, 1993 Gulf of Mexico to East Coast "Super Storm", including Florida severe weather. March 27, 1994 "Palm Sunday II" southeast U.S. tornado outbreak May 4-10, 2003 Central-Eastern U.S. weeklong sequence of tornado outbreaks and "round-the-clock" severe storms. February 28-March 2, 2007 multi-day southern U.S. tornado outbreak, including the Enterprise, AL tornado on March 1, 2007. February 5-6, 2008 Tennessee and Ohio Valleys "Super Tuesday" tornado outbreak. May 25, 2008 Central U.S. severe weather outbreak including the "Parkersburg, IA" tornado. May 8, 2009 Southern Midwest "Super Derecho". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_E._Hales_Jr.?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR0J8nGPWTzy23qR_N9Nul3QSE8c3rZSnubi1fz4Tr_1ZMLu_r_4UB3Rlm4_aem_AV5RsuAKGTPpBCgxcsRglIpQAWCzgJoJwDMybpDcnLLiSdfrL0w6IvTXnrT1o1X-G9-iqkYTOMmeAL8Vyhhf2ogq
  20. Carvers Gap
    Check this out from Meade's quarry in Knoxville. Crazy. https://x.com/RickD865Vol/status/1794803131500380231
  21. Carvers Gap
    Southwest Virginia is lit up like the 4th of July.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Man, it’s HOT!!! Bring on the cold shot!!!
  23. Carvers Gap
    Definitely seeing the northern lights tonight. Pretty amazing. G5 solar storm - it was upgraded I think.
  24. Carvers Gap
    MRX just mentioned on social media a chance to view the northern lights.
  25. Carvers Gap
    I spoke with our catastrophic storm assessor (he was working my roof several years back)...he said he handled an EF-4 or 5 maybe in Indiana or Illinois years back. He said softball sized hail had been driven through the side of cars and into the side of the engine block(dents were evidence). State Farm covered 25-30K in damages for us (July 27, 2014) due to baseball and softball size hail. It wasn't wind driven, but it knocked holes in my gutters and lawn furniture. Hundreds of dents in our truck and van along w/ broken windows. It sounded like bricks falling on the house. Our chimney vent still have dents in them. It was the worst sound I have ever heard. You could hear the damage in the neighborhood as it fell. My sister's house lost their vinyl siding(due to hail) in that storm or the one a few year prior. So, heart felt condolences to the folks in the area where the large hail hit.
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