Carvers Gap

As today has progressed, I think the general idea seems to be for two systems. That is starting to make more sense given the axis of the cold air, the push from those cold highs, and likely multiple waves. Each wave pushed the boundary to the southeast. That isn't a bad setup for whoever is on the northwest side of that. Significant CAD for NC looks likely - been a while since we have talked about that. Ice, then snow, then severe cold....not great.

Looks a lot like the 12z Euro AI run with the first and second systems.

Starting to look like a multi-day overrunning event per this run. And the other models were flirting with it at 12z, especially ensembles.

Moving at tortoise speed. The 12z EURO AIFS didn't look too dissimilar at the surface. Light years difference between the two at 500. Bad ice storm for I-40 in TN and NC per that run.

Same trend as the last several systems. Too amped, and then slides south and east with each run. Still not there yet, but close. The 12z Euro AIFS looked a lot like this. The GFS dug less into the Four Corners this run.

18z GFS is a bit flatter this run. Let's see if it cuts.

The three global ensembles look really good this afternoon - widespread snow. Euro/CMC look the best which is good since they have been leading the way. The GEFS isn't bad.

Yeah, I think the CMC is gonna win this battle. It won't be as good with the details, but it is a lot better when cold air is on the table. The Euro solution at 12z is just an amped solution of the 12z CMC.

I am hoping this is the same version but with precip! Wasn't the EPO off the charts that year? It seems a little more normal this year? Now, for the record, it is one of my analogs this year, and I agree that is a very viable option. I chickened out using 95-96, and wish I had now.

Euro may have a second system.

12z Euro is more along the lines of my thinking. That is what happens when the energy is not held in the West....we get a flatter wave. Then, boom.

I do look over my should just a bit with the GFS, because I generally go with the lowest denominator in terms of weather. LOL. In other words, the worst/warmest solution is probably right. The GFS has an uncanny ability to see things other models cannot, and I like it because it kind of gets out of the box. Where it really missed(as noted in my last post) is it missed the cold front during the first week of January. That said, if it is right...I think it actually helps us down the line. It has been a bit colder than other models. I think some of those system along the GOM will trend northward. That suppressed look usually is a good thing for SE peeps in Chattanooga.

It did. I have noticed that the GFS has had some great solutions which other modeling didn't have recently. Over time, the solution would trend southeast (over the East). I wondered why that was happening so often. Like the CMC and Euro wouldn't even have the system or the system would be across the GOM while the GFS had it in Indiana. If memory serves me correctly, I checked, and noticed the GFS spinning things up over the Southwest. That caused everything to cut. Now, as John notes, cutters are always on the table, and I 100% agree that is on the table. I just want to see the GFS get some support or drop the solution if it is wrong. The GFS was the last on board for the upcoming cold. It originally had the East roasting during the first week of January - full on torch.

I really encourage you all (and I learned this from @tnweathernut) to look at runs at 500 in addition to the surface. What the GFS is doing at 500 is much different.

I still think the 12z GFS is off its rocker. It is the only model sending the winter storm energy into the Four Corners. I don't think it has been right when it has done this all season. The CMC is a much more reasonable solution. The GFS has no support for that solution from other global models at this point.

The 6z GFS is digging too far into the southwest IMHO. That is likely an error. Every time it does that, the system we are watching...cuts. Both the CMC and Euro don't dig that wave into the southwest as much which results in a flatter solution. That also makes me think the flatter solutions are more likely - i.e. overrunning somewhere over our forum area similar to 96, but obviously not exactly the same. The 0z GFS doesn't dig into the southwest as much. Trends in the west at 500 will tell us the story. For now, the GFS looks in error at 6z yet again(but sometimes it is right....)

Heavy rain and a band of high winds are rolling through right now.

The CMC and Euro both have decent solutions for portions of our forum area. The 6z GFS appears to be pushing the front too far to the south when compared to its ensemble and when compared to other global models. Suppression js definitely a significant risk here, but snowstorms in Tallahassee are unlikely but not out of the realm of extreme possibility - for now, I toss those runs. I haven’t looked at 500, but I wonder how much different it looks in the western US. The 12z Euro looked too wound up The GFS runs which slide across and make a slight NE turn make a lot of sense - 1996 style. The 0z GFS made more sense. The CMC also looks realistic. Potwntial for a big EC storm is growing. Cold is still on modeling - severe on many runs.

The Euro AIFS is less extreme and more reasonable in terms of temps...That snowstorm in Florida? Maybe less reasonable.

Interesting to see them pull a lead up analog. The 18z GFS implied that another cold shot might follow the big one. That potential next cold shot would be sliding across new snow and wouldn’t have to overcome warm temps. Big hitter analogs. Jan-Feb 96 in Kingsport might have seen 35-40” of snow. Holston might know that number for sure. I kept coming home from Knoxville to giant piles of snow in the big box store parking lots - like two stories tall. Official snow records for that timeframe are dubious at best.

D8-14 CPC analogs....Jan 1977 double weighted. Jan 1985 triple weighted. 50% of the analogs are from the two coldest winters of my lifetime. Throw in Dec 1995(lead up to 96), and 60% of analogs are winters I would be afraid to use in a seasonal forecast! I thought about 95-96, but put it back on the shelf for retired HOF analogs. CPC is gonna go big or go home! 19850118 20001227 19770116 19810103 19850109 19850123 20001222 19770121 20070125 19951228

There are a few runs where I maybe say...that might be right on the edge of what I don't want to see from winter. That is flirting with it. Ice followed by that type of cold would be rough. That is a 5 day map. It is at a range that is probably going to change as it is d10-15(plenty of cold inside of d10!). 34 degree departures over 5 days is incredible. The concern is multiple models are showing this type of cold at one time or another. Normally, I would just do a forum accums map. However, I know we have some Midwest folks who drop in, so I will widen the scope a bit.

I have my doubts that is correct(likely error early on), but that is how you break the all-time record low. SW VA had a low of almost -18F on that run.

Coldest run I have ever seen in all my years following wx models and this hobby. There is something to be said for that.

There is another cold shot behind this one(that is new).