Carvers Gap

EPS left. Euro right. Both are 12z.

I don't think the EPS supports the operational.......further south and much colder.

Temps on the GEFS are about 5 degrees colder for the Jan 6 event. Trend is for lower heights over the TN valley as well. All of that compared to 6z. That means the GFS and its ensemble flattened the system out. I would guess the CMC is going to win this battle. The Icon might score the coup. Let's see if the Euro has any positive trends.

Left is the new 12z GEFS. Right is the 6z GEFS. Just look at the blue isotherms, and you can see the new ensemble run is flatter.

Just tagging onto the Mill's post....for those of us who really enjoy winter weather, this is the kind of pattern we want to track. Sure, it could turn up 0s, but more often than not....we are going to have multiple events(maybe just minor) to track. The duration of the cold is of great interest right now. JB thinks the duration is shorter due to warming of Europe. However, the European teleconnection of late has been pretty lousy(meaning recent winters of cold in Europe and warm in the East). The GEFS ext last night and the Euro ext both kind of slide the trough into the Mountain West but the SER really struggles to stay in place later this month - surprisingly. Anyway, enjoy the pattern. Winter is on our doorstep. Be sure to unhook those hoses, and cover those outside faucets.

Get to the Millwx post...

My money is still on the GFS coming south and east.

There used to be an old saying that the lower the latitude on the California coast...the better for us. I certainly pumps the ridge out fronting the plains, but it deepens the trough over the EC. That made it tough for the cold air to get out of the way. This is kind of a pay me now or pay me later pattern. The GFS is multiple events - too many to list in a post. Right now, all of the 12z model suite (GFS, UK, ICOn, CMC) have significant frozen precip with the first system, and that doesn't even count the rest. If you get a chance to read Millwx's post in the MA, go find it and read it. He is a met, and talks about this set-up and looks at its potential. Really good read.

One would think the 12z CMC is about to do the same w/ a 1040 hp sitting over the top of that in the southern Prairies of Canada.

Time of day appears to make a significant difference in each run. This hit E TN at night....would be a mess if it verifies.

Pretty significant ice storm on the 12z GFS. 0.72 of ice in @Daniel Boonecountry.

12z GFS is coming onto the coast further south with the energy...maybe a significant change? Let's see how different it gets downstream...either going to cut really sharp or be flat????

Did u see the 18z Euro at 144? Looked south of 12z on that run....

Nice run of the 18z GFS. Flatter and lots of energy rotating through.

It still has 45 degree departures on this run. Getting colder with each passing frame.

This run make much more sense than the past several for the GFS. The good thing is the base of the trough is a bit flatter, and not in Cuba.

I also think it has finally weakened that cutter so that it doesn't pull down the mother load all at once.....

As today has progressed, I think the general idea seems to be for two systems. That is starting to make more sense given the axis of the cold air, the push from those cold highs, and likely multiple waves. Each wave pushed the boundary to the southeast. That isn't a bad setup for whoever is on the northwest side of that. Significant CAD for NC looks likely - been a while since we have talked about that. Ice, then snow, then severe cold....not great.

Looks a lot like the 12z Euro AI run with the first and second systems.

Starting to look like a multi-day overrunning event per this run. And the other models were flirting with it at 12z, especially ensembles.

Moving at tortoise speed. The 12z EURO AIFS didn't look too dissimilar at the surface. Light years difference between the two at 500. Bad ice storm for I-40 in TN and NC per that run.

Same trend as the last several systems. Too amped, and then slides south and east with each run. Still not there yet, but close. The 12z Euro AIFS looked a lot like this. The GFS dug less into the Four Corners this run.

18z GFS is a bit flatter this run. Let's see if it cuts.

The three global ensembles look really good this afternoon - widespread snow. Euro/CMC look the best which is good since they have been leading the way. The GEFS isn't bad.

Yeah, I think the CMC is gonna win this battle. It won't be as good with the details, but it is a lot better when cold air is on the table. The Euro solution at 12z is just an amped solution of the 12z CMC.