Carvers Gap

Is this continuity from the 18z GFS?

The 18z GFS has a small trailing vortex on this run which wasn't there before. Hey, let's just do it different every, single time.

Bout like the NCAA selection committee giving Boise State to PSU for a second round game AFTER giving them SMU for a first round game. Just makes no sense whatsoever. At least I can watch football tomorrow and not have to suffer through watching the Jan 6 low cut all day on modeling!

I was really hoping the 18z GFS would go to Baja like the ICON, and make all of us rethink what we know about weather.

18z GFS looks like it is going to cut....little more separation between it and the system in front. That allows the ridge to pop just a hair more. Let's see....just an educated guess as to how it is coming onto the West Coast.

That model passed out about half way through Happy Hour. LOL.

The Euro Weeklies control and ensemble maps will make everyone happy.

The 500 vort maps cut it off west of Baja!!!! Talk about digging into the Southwest(in the eastern Pac now). Like it looks tropical at 500. LOL

@John1122, you watch the ICON pretty closely. What is up with that run?

LOL. I came here to ask if I was looking at the map wrong.....it is THAT different!!! Like it isn't even there.

I would add that modeling that is digging into the southwest too much...beware. I also think spacing between the Jan 6 system and the one in front of it are critical. When the spacing is less, there is less ridge between then. The smaller that ridge, the flatter the system.

We haven't just lost the deterministic Euro. We have lost the EPS top to bottom. It has thrown out some really strange runs of late(just every once in a while after being rock steady for more runs than I can count). Temp wise, it has lost a good chunk of the cold as well - entire run. I think what is going on right now is that modeling is struggling with very cold temps coming into NA along with a complex storm pattern. Right now, I don't trust any of them. However, the 12z GEFS and GEPS seem to be pretty steady without any breaks in continuity. For now...for now...I ride with those two and toss the EPS. Operational Euro is probably good through d6 or d7. I would suspect ice to rain for Sunday....but I don't trust any model right now. Ride with the ensembles until things settle down a bit. We generally go through wild swings when cold air is in play. Also, when do models lose storms? Yep, bout right now.

12z CMC was a pretty significant ice storm for much of the state.

12z CMC is a slider across the TN Valley w/ a front end episode of ice....E TN is susceptible to this if it comes in at night or early morning.

That was a significant ice storm followed by heavy snow or maybe the reverse is true....it got pretty convoluted.

Portions of W TN got 1.25" of ice AND 17" of snow.

The Kuchera clown map is gonna look ridiculous.

So this was a southern slider. To recap, the system came in slightly north of where it did on the West Coast at 6z. The system in front held back a bit, and didn't allow heights to pump in front of the Jan 6 system. A big 1040 sat right on top and pushed it south. Plausible. But is it right? In the words of George Washington on SNL, "Nobody knows."

at 147, they system is stalled over central Alabama with snow breaking out into the Carolinas.

144, and heavy snow and ice are breaking out across the eastern sections of the forum.

Just checking to make sure this is indeed the right day of this model run...major winter storm for the TN Valley at 138 and 141.

at 135, this is a pretty significant winter storm for W TN as the slp is crawling.

At 129, system is slowing as it is having trouble cutting into the hp just to its north.

At 123 a winter storm is breaking out across W TN...mostly snow.

at 111, significantly less ridging is in front. 1043 high is out front and over the top. Flow is flatter. This might be different than 6z.