Carvers Gap

Definitely a pattern change coming as the ensembles have all diverged from one another around d13. The 12z suite has multiple options. The GEPS unleashes the worst cold of the winter. The EPS is still cold. Both the aforementioned ensembles have a full latitude trough which I think would be likely between the 20th and 28th as a transition. The GEFS puts the trough in the West...probably the right solution but maybe 5-8 days early. Its bias is to be too quick in breaking down Atlantic blocks. The really interesting thing to me is that if the NAO holds....it could provide a pathway forward to more winter if the Pac breaks down. The NAO is much better at producing winter later in the season...... As for the MJO....just tough to know. It is dragging its feet. That means it "could" be slower to transition to a Western trough, and might allow another pulse of cold after the 20th. I do wonder if we can get to the 30th in one piece (meaning still winter to be found)...if the shorter wavelengths of February provide destructive interference to the MJO as it rotates to the warm side. If the NAO holds, we could still manage more winter. One last thought....I do wonder if the worst cold shot of winter is not quite on modeling yet? If this pattern is going to break towards spring after this, that usually occurs after a rather extreme cold shot and/or storm. Something to watch for. The Euro is definitely toying with that. The Canadian is pretty much there. Warning shots were fired by modeling at 12z for a cold shot just after d15.

Before the 0z suite last night, this was trending towards nothing for us re: 1.10. At 12z we have seen the energy kept south of us - that was task #1. Now, we have some room if it wants to come back northwest. It may continue to trend SE or it comes back NW. But if modeling had continued as it did yesterday, it was not going to be a frozen result for most. The GFS was a solid 6-8” storm. The Euro was prob 2-5”. Blend those and that is a good result. Time will sort this out.

The 12z Euro is going the route of the 6z GFS. It has another storm around 276. I wonder if modeling is feeling that NAO now...sure seems like it. Combo of western ridging and Atlantic blocking should yield those runs from time to time.

Scannerfood on FB is a pretty good way to monitor conditions in each area.

Big ol' slop fest here - snow and sleet. Roads are covered north if I-81. Portions of Virginia have gotten hammered pretty good. Abingdon on I-81 looked rough!!!

Good pass on the Euro. The Jan 10-11 system fits the 12z ICON, GFS, CMC, and to some extent the UKMET. Pretty close grouping.

The 12z Euro will hold serve compared to 0z.

As John noted, the 6z GFS(full run) was pretty much insane. That map might be worth posting just for posterity.

Modeling at from 0z-12z today is picking up on yet another cold shot around the 20th. Long way out there, but Weeklies controls have seen this off-and-on for some time.

The RGEM got it mostly right here....timing and p-type and duration.

Boom goes the 12z GFS.

I just drove from Elizabethton to Kingsport. Elizabethton is sleet/zr. Boones Creek is sleet. I26/I81 interchange was snow/sleet. Rock Springs was snow. Kingsport is light to moderate snow. Roads are beginning to be snow and ice covered, especially bridges, shady patches and areas where the snow is falling the hardest.

Models are probably guilty of breaking down the pattern a bit too quickly in the longer range. The 500 pattern will begin to reverse around the 20th with 5-10 days of variability after that. The trough will likely move into the Mountain West. Right now we are kind of stealing a decent month from a winter that maybe didn't support that at first glance. But sometimes it snows where it wants to snow regardless of the pattern. We have about 3 more weeks before we really and truly (probably) take a break.

My February analog package is well AN. I don't see a lot of ways around that. January was the wild card. March can be crazy cold. Again, the control runs of the Weeklies are not super enthusiastic about taking the cold from the East. If anything, they have cold which stretches from Montana to the Apps.

I have watched three model suites since posting about this storm. Here are some observations… 1. We must pay attention to the GFS northwest trend, but remember this Jan 6 system. When it broke from modeling, it began cutting to Michigan. Then, over time it made its way to Tallahassee. It finally settled somewhere in the middle. I suspect it(Jan 6) was too far southeast to begin with. It has now corrected northwestward. I suspect we see the Jan 10 system jog back some. Its ensembles at 12z supported that. I wonder with this Jan 6 system if the best solution would have been to blend the GFS deterministic and the GEFS with about a week to go? 2. The GFS can score coups. It can also miss like it did with the Ohio State game with about a week to go. It under modeled the cold and speed of the cold front. I saw fans with a week to go talking about how the forecast was in the 30s. The GFS can miss. 3. The low in the Lakes is a big problem. I noticed it this morning. 4. This phase is a bit too intricate for my liking. Every, single run at 500 is wildly different, 5. If we want a big storm, we have to live on the edge of the rain and snow line. 6. Gonna take time, looking at ensembles, and looking at trends on deterministic runs. 7. As this gets closer to the coast, it will dial in. But until then, we have a few more suites of wild solutions.

I'm bout to go to sleep. Ya'll get the Euro on board!

It also had the Jan 10th system looking primed. It had it phased which it didn't at 12z.

BTW, the 18z EURO AIFS has some semblance of the same 0z GFS system for the 10th. They aren't too far apart.

I believe the 0z GFS is going to line another up after the 10th.

Both. The Miller A talk and big storm talk is Jan 10. I think John and Boone are talking Sunday. Sorry, I just jumped in. I am not usually up this late!

CMC with ice in the Panhandle....that has been wrong every, single time this year. At 500, the energy gets sheared into about a 3,000 mile ribbon about 200 miles wide. Now, I still think the trailer will cause some mischief as it hits that stalled streamer(no other word for it that I can think of). Gonna be like hitting a hot wire.

Waiting to see if the CMC can gain some latitude. It is cooking something up in the GOM.

The 0z GFS says, "It's Miller time."

Game on, folks. The 0z Icon has it. The 0z GFS has it. Boom.

No real criticisms other than that is just so odd looking.