Carvers Gap

The 18z GFS phased better by 81....let's see where it takes us.

As long as it will go there, yes! This "should" be a prolonged series of cold shots. We are just in day 3 of what should be almost a 3 week cold spell.

Yes. We had snow/sleet/zr around 10:00AM when the forecast had us set for early afternoon. I miscalculated(I followed the local NWS office's opinion that the atmosphere would take longer to saturate), and just about didn't get to the house (not in a 4wd) this morning. We had to turn on Waze to get traffic reports and had the radar on.....I didn't drive the truck this morning, and wished I had! Fortunately, I-26 wasn't crowded this morning. Looks like rain for MBY from here on out.

Honestly, we have grown to intermittently claim western North Carolina (depending on the event) posters, some eastern Arkansas folks(Will maybe), southern Ohio, and a few some from southern Illinois, Indiana, and/or Missouri. All are welcome. Super glad to see our middle and west TN posters as well! I think the quality of posting in this forum by everybody brings people together from places which I never thought possible before the wx forum concept. It really does a great job of including places outside of the "original charter." Plus, a lot of the maps that many share here...they cover those aforementioned areas. Some of their sub-forums aren't as active as ours. We used to be part of the southeast forum, but that forum covered weather for mainly the Research Triangle. So Mr Bob and company managed to get us our own shingle many years ago. A lot of us (now getting AARP mailers) are part of another weather forum(SE forum as well) which preceded this one. The very first weather model I looked at was the NAVY NOGAPS. I got tired of trying to learn how to read it, so I stumbled about and found a group who was posting in the SE forum (from SW VA and E TN).

Nah, no need to justify it. You all have been with us form the first day that we split from the southeast forum. Don't even think twice about it. We aren't letting the Mid-Atlantic forum have you all. LOL.

Southwest Virginia is 110% included and always has been. They are founding members of this subforum.

And if you hand't shown me a single weather model as a kid, I would have noted that winter was progressing as normal IMBY. Also noting, I grew up in Knoxville as a kid (I am a Knoxville native). Lots of little snows so far. Cold start to winter, 7-8 day interlude of warmth, and back to cold. Really, that is about as good as it gets (so far!) IMBY.

It is always possible it can be correct. The GFS especially can be a canary in the cold mine. But...the 12z GFS went full glacial yet again(two runs in a row), and ended w/ a monster cold high crashing southeastward. The GFS is usually the one I watch for changes. I still like the pattern lasting until the 20th. I might even extend that 3-5 days now w/ the MJO dragging along. Then, maybe a transition of 5-7 days after as the trough retrogrades into the Mountain West. I do think we will probably see a ridge in the East pop, but I suspect cold continues to push from Montana at least to the Apps. I am a little less certain of that, but it is a hunch. If you look at good winters, those winters seem to find a way to bridge between cold shots. If all of the cold at some point comes south, I think winter is done after that. However, if it releases in pulses like we are seeing in modeling...it could find a second wind. The analogs that I used for winter have a very cold March. For whatever reason, I am just not watching the MJO right now. I should, but am not. I read Holston's posts and that is pretty much my update. What is incredibly encouraging, the MJO hasn't even started its rotation into the cold phases yet. Maybe that last sentence is the best news of the day, including rumors of storms.....

Definitely a pattern change coming as the ensembles have all diverged from one another around d13. The 12z suite has multiple options. The GEPS unleashes the worst cold of the winter. The EPS is still cold. Both the aforementioned ensembles have a full latitude trough which I think would be likely between the 20th and 28th as a transition. The GEFS puts the trough in the West...probably the right solution but maybe 5-8 days early. Its bias is to be too quick in breaking down Atlantic blocks. The really interesting thing to me is that if the NAO holds....it could provide a pathway forward to more winter if the Pac breaks down. The NAO is much better at producing winter later in the season...... As for the MJO....just tough to know. It is dragging its feet. That means it "could" be slower to transition to a Western trough, and might allow another pulse of cold after the 20th. I do wonder if we can get to the 30th in one piece (meaning still winter to be found)...if the shorter wavelengths of February provide destructive interference to the MJO as it rotates to the warm side. If the NAO holds, we could still manage more winter. One last thought....I do wonder if the worst cold shot of winter is not quite on modeling yet? If this pattern is going to break towards spring after this, that usually occurs after a rather extreme cold shot and/or storm. Something to watch for. The Euro is definitely toying with that. The Canadian is pretty much there. Warning shots were fired by modeling at 12z for a cold shot just after d15.

Before the 0z suite last night, this was trending towards nothing for us re: 1.10. At 12z we have seen the energy kept south of us - that was task #1. Now, we have some room if it wants to come back northwest. It may continue to trend SE or it comes back NW. But if modeling had continued as it did yesterday, it was not going to be a frozen result for most. The GFS was a solid 6-8” storm. The Euro was prob 2-5”. Blend those and that is a good result. Time will sort this out.

The 12z Euro is going the route of the 6z GFS. It has another storm around 276. I wonder if modeling is feeling that NAO now...sure seems like it. Combo of western ridging and Atlantic blocking should yield those runs from time to time.

Scannerfood on FB is a pretty good way to monitor conditions in each area.

Big ol' slop fest here - snow and sleet. Roads are covered north if I-81. Portions of Virginia have gotten hammered pretty good. Abingdon on I-81 looked rough!!!

Good pass on the Euro. The Jan 10-11 system fits the 12z ICON, GFS, CMC, and to some extent the UKMET. Pretty close grouping.

The 12z Euro will hold serve compared to 0z.

As John noted, the 6z GFS(full run) was pretty much insane. That map might be worth posting just for posterity.

Modeling at from 0z-12z today is picking up on yet another cold shot around the 20th. Long way out there, but Weeklies controls have seen this off-and-on for some time.

The RGEM got it mostly right here....timing and p-type and duration.

Boom goes the 12z GFS.

I just drove from Elizabethton to Kingsport. Elizabethton is sleet/zr. Boones Creek is sleet. I26/I81 interchange was snow/sleet. Rock Springs was snow. Kingsport is light to moderate snow. Roads are beginning to be snow and ice covered, especially bridges, shady patches and areas where the snow is falling the hardest.

Models are probably guilty of breaking down the pattern a bit too quickly in the longer range. The 500 pattern will begin to reverse around the 20th with 5-10 days of variability after that. The trough will likely move into the Mountain West. Right now we are kind of stealing a decent month from a winter that maybe didn't support that at first glance. But sometimes it snows where it wants to snow regardless of the pattern. We have about 3 more weeks before we really and truly (probably) take a break.

My February analog package is well AN. I don't see a lot of ways around that. January was the wild card. March can be crazy cold. Again, the control runs of the Weeklies are not super enthusiastic about taking the cold from the East. If anything, they have cold which stretches from Montana to the Apps.

I have watched three model suites since posting about this storm. Here are some observations… 1. We must pay attention to the GFS northwest trend, but remember this Jan 6 system. When it broke from modeling, it began cutting to Michigan. Then, over time it made its way to Tallahassee. It finally settled somewhere in the middle. I suspect it(Jan 6) was too far southeast to begin with. It has now corrected northwestward. I suspect we see the Jan 10 system jog back some. Its ensembles at 12z supported that. I wonder with this Jan 6 system if the best solution would have been to blend the GFS deterministic and the GEFS with about a week to go? 2. The GFS can score coups. It can also miss like it did with the Ohio State game with about a week to go. It under modeled the cold and speed of the cold front. I saw fans with a week to go talking about how the forecast was in the 30s. The GFS can miss. 3. The low in the Lakes is a big problem. I noticed it this morning. 4. This phase is a bit too intricate for my liking. Every, single run at 500 is wildly different, 5. If we want a big storm, we have to live on the edge of the rain and snow line. 6. Gonna take time, looking at ensembles, and looking at trends on deterministic runs. 7. As this gets closer to the coast, it will dial in. But until then, we have a few more suites of wild solutions.

I'm bout to go to sleep. Ya'll get the Euro on board!

It also had the Jan 10th system looking primed. It had it phased which it didn't at 12z.