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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    The 12z UKMET has come well south of 0z. Trends on operationals matter at this stage.
  2. Carvers Gap
    As Canada builds cold on the GFS and we get through the "warm phases" of the MJO....when the MJO hits phase 7 later this month, that could come south. Legit winter pattern showing up on modeling, even after next week.
  3. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC(know for its sometimes cold bias) sends the freezing line into the southern Everglades w/ single digits in the Panhandle. This is like 1-2 cold shots after next Monday.
  4. Carvers Gap
    And looking down the line, snow showers would persist for days....and likely more storms after. Loaded pattern...and we haven't been able to say that in a long time.
  5. Carvers Gap
    It would shut down this area, but also potentially many of the major cities along the East Coast. Power grid would be stretched THIN. Between downed lines due to ice on the SE edge and the prolonged cold from Texas to the major cities....could get rough.
  6. Carvers Gap
    I can find us a way. LOL. Run that SLP from New Orleans to Norfolk. Word on the street is that the AI model has that track - but it is always wrong! LOL.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Well, sledding will be fast. LOL.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Here is what makes the most sense about the Canadian....the SLP forms along the front and rides it up the coast. The scenario where the SLP is 200mi off Charleston, SC, and the wave forms so far behind the front doesn't make as much sense. What does make sense is for a Miller A, inland runner, or even Apps runner to get lit on the Gulf Coast and come northeast. In that regard, the Canadian makes a lot of sense....I just think it will be closer to the coast.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Flatter is likely. If we can get a low from just off the coast and to just inside the coast, that would be a score. I don't think the Canadian is on the same page right now. The ICON is the 12z suite scenario that we want to avoid.
  10. Carvers Gap
    The CMC is a far west outlier. It is literally like 1-2 days behind trends of other modeling, but did manage an inland runner. Jax, great post. The energy that is catching up with this cold front is not being modeled well.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Well, that is a straight up and amped Miller A on the Canadian. Wow. That is the trend. Drop the energy SE, and then let it rip.
  12. Carvers Gap
    DEFINITE jog south and east w/ the snow axis. edit: regarding the 12z GFS
  13. Carvers Gap
    At 102, the anafront made into E TN. Now, let's see where all of that energy along the GOM goes.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Out to 96 on the 12z GFS, this run is flatter yet again. Energy is held back over SE TX.
  15. Carvers Gap
    I was digging through slp placement this morning...both the 6z GFS and 0z Euro move that coastal a little more off shore. And it doesn't really hurt the second system. I also wouldn't want to be in Memphis making this forecast. The 0z GEPS is all-in for Memphis, but the 6z GEFS and 0z EPS are less enthused when one looks at individual members. The GEFS/EPS lack a clear cluster of solutions. Plus, the CMC/GEPS were the slowest to catch the solution in the first place - almost seems like they are a couple of days behind. Now,(and I am sure you have seen this in the past as well) waiting on that second slug of moisture to come up the valley is not without peril. I have found that to be an error w/ some winter storms or it slides too far eastward and goes through western NC. I don't have a clear feel for this yet. I tend to think it is some sort of strung-out anafront which stalls, and we get a pulse(s) along it. I also wouldn't be surprised to see the second piece of energy be stronger or even be the main storm - might be a little late for that trend, but worth watching. I would also expect that the system on the EC(first wave) to trend closer to the coast if it is the main system as it will wrap up more. I think modeling is sniffing out a big coastal, but just can't figure out which piece of energy to accentuate....or it could just be a moderate over-running event.
  16. Carvers Gap
    This is why I waited until this morning to look at modeling. I knew 0z was gonna be a mess. A dying wave which is followed by a second piece of energy is realistic as well, and I wouldn't be surprised to see modeling consolidate even more around that second piece of energy like the GFS had at 6z. When a strong cold front hits the GOM - dynamite. Good trends for all of the forum really.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Ya'll, I am gonna wait until the morning to check modeling as I don't think it is worked out yet. Might take to 12z to find some semblance of where this is heading. Reel in a good pattern, folks! FWIW, the GEFS ext also looks stellar.
  18. Carvers Gap
    But today wasn't a complete loss.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Is that why it looked to lose the system? In other words, it just wasn't there yet as in it slowed down. I thought it went poof.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Wow. Truly. That is a Hall of Fame afternoon disco.
  21. Carvers Gap
    With the system flattened, when that trailing edge of the cold front hits the GOM - boom. With it being flatter, it gives time for precip to work into the system. Also, the front halfway stalls. We really want that front to sag slightly southeast of our region and stall....draped from the GOM to Hatteras.
  22. Carvers Gap
    12z is on the left and 0z is on the for comparison. Notice that the SLP is much more defined and closer to the coast. Nice looking storm. This is the sequence of the storm as it climbs the EC. 12z was much slower. When a storm gets inside of Hatteras that is a good signal for E TN. Let's see if the trend holds.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Here is the 12z EPS (26-50 snow members...first half looks similar as well). You can see the model spread now w/ two tracks.
  24. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro is worth your time, especially after the storm. There is another system around the 19th and 20th. Then this baby comes East. Just looking at temps, a very large area of cold gets trapped under that banana high.
  25. Carvers Gap
    That could definitely happen. Front dies and then the SLP is too far to the East. That said, that solution made sense and has some support by other modeling. I am going to cash in some chips on a NW jog. LOL.
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