Carvers Gap

BTW, the 18z EURO AIFS has some semblance of the same 0z GFS system for the 10th. They aren't too far apart.

I believe the 0z GFS is going to line another up after the 10th.

Both. The Miller A talk and big storm talk is Jan 10. I think John and Boone are talking Sunday. Sorry, I just jumped in. I am not usually up this late!

CMC with ice in the Panhandle....that has been wrong every, single time this year. At 500, the energy gets sheared into about a 3,000 mile ribbon about 200 miles wide. Now, I still think the trailer will cause some mischief as it hits that stalled streamer(no other word for it that I can think of). Gonna be like hitting a hot wire.

Waiting to see if the CMC can gain some latitude. It is cooking something up in the GOM.

The 0z GFS says, "It's Miller time."

Game on, folks. The 0z Icon has it. The 0z GFS has it. Boom.

No real criticisms other than that is just so odd looking.

MIght be the most bizarre weather advisory map I have ever seen.

Just looking at some social media posts. It looks like some areas in Johnson Co, TN, received 2-3" of snow(or more). Some areas of SW VA have been impacted as well by these strong snow bands. I am surprised not to see lightning or hear thunder with these. We have had a 2-3 bands roll through MBY. It has melted know, but it was a heavy dusting to 0.5" of snow at times.

These snow squalls this afternoon in NE TN and SW VA have meant business. Interestingly, there will now be snow on the ground in some places(that weren't expecting it) well before the next system arrives Sunday. There are places in Johnson Co and in SW VA with 1-3" of snow on the ground now. Roads are a mess. Very much overperformed. This cold front has been strong.

MRX afternoon disco excerpt.... An impactful winter storm is possible on Sunday across the region with impacts expected across portions of our forecast area, especially the northern half. A cold, dry airmass will be located across the region on Saturday night with southwesterly flow aloft and isentropic lift increasing ahead of a low pressure system across the Southern Great Plains. This isentropic ascent will produce light precipitation, mainly west of Interstate 75, early Sunday morning with precipitation gradually beginning to increase eastward throughout the day. Very cold, dry air will be in place at the surface. RAP forecast soundings now extend out through 18z Sunday, and these soundings show wet bulb temperatures in the mid 20s. Precipitation will have a difficult time making it to the surface at first with evaporative cooling keeping temperatures colder into the afternoon. This is one of these situations where cold air will already be across the region, and models often do not resolve the shallow cold air very well. This causes many global models with coarser resolution to quickly bring WAA into the area faster than observed. The higher-res mesoscale model guidance is showing this more realistically with temperatures across the northern half of the forecast area struggling to get above freezing until late Sunday afternoon. The RAP soundings are showing this with temperatures across the central valley remaining near 31-32 even at 18z Sunday. Overall QPF totals are not very high, but even light amounts around 0.1 inch would result in hazardous, icy travel. With the southerly flow, downslope and warming conditions across the western mountain foothills will result in a warm nose west of the mountain chain across the foothills. This means that the highest probabilities of freezing rain ice accumulation greater than 0.1 inch will be north of Interstate 40 and northwest of Interstate 81. The highest ice accumulation is expected near the Kentucky line and into southwest Virgina where 0.1 to 0.25 inch of ice accumulation is currently forecast, with locally higher amounts.

Seeing lots of reports that 23 is a mess.

18z NAM jogs north. SW VA under WSW.

Just getting pounded by a band here. Hearing Bristol got thumped.

Yeah, if they get it...odds are that you are as well.

With the exception of a couple of western border counties, all bordering counties in Kentucky(w/ Tenn) have been placed under winter storm watches. edit: Sorry, John....Just saw your post about the same.

Regarding the 10th.... Roughly 6/30 GEFS members have the storm - about 20%. Roughly 8/30 GEPS members have the storm - about half. Interestingly, almost all of the ones that miss....follow-up with that energy a couple of days later. Mostly snow and pretty good storms at that. EPS is pretty similar to the GEFS but a little less enthused. Short story...There are two camps for the 10th on modeling. One is an phase on the 10th, and the other is a couple of days later. I tend to lean towards a phase with the northern stream for a storm on the 10th. I could be wrong. However, the GFS has modeled the southwest(against my earlier suspicions for the system on the third) correctly when other models did not. For now, it gets the nod for scoring a big time coup on Jan 6. It also caught that trend before any other deterministic or ensemble member, even its own ensemble.

As for the system two...the point of inflection (go, no go) looks like if the northern stream will grab the energy over the southwest. The 12z ICON and GFS got the phase. The 12z CMC and Euro did not. Ensembles will be unlikely to show that phase at this range. They will wash-out that solution. When there is no storm, the 500 maps look nearly identical. When there is a storm, there is a phase there. Several days ago the concern was suppression. I think we have exactly opposite of that problem - for now. Don't be surprsied if the cold shows back up on modeling either.

Johnson County's roads are white per scannerfood on FB.

Kicks and giggles.

12z UKMET is south for system 1 and has system 2 on deck ready to rock.

Either situation w/ the 12z GFS or CMC works. If the first system misses, it leaves "money in the bank" over the southwest, and the next system picks it up. I know a folks don't like JB...but I learned that setup from listening to him over the years. Generally, that is a true statement if the energy is real. Add 8-9 days out, really that is about all that we can ask for.

The 12z CMC does indeed grab that energy with the next pass....left us at 240 with a slp sitting in the eastern Panhandle which is traditionally a good spot. Looked like it had plenty of room to gain latitude. Again, for now, looks like pay me now or pay me later with that energy in the southwest. We just want it consolidated and not sheered into two system - I don't "think."