Carvers Gap

That streamer put some school systems out this morning! We used to call it the Twilight Zone when driving through odd snow bands on I-26 in Gray.

Some big hitters in there.

My guess is this locks in between 12z this afternoon and 0z tonight. The last big jumps in would likely be at 0z tonight, but that is just a guess. Generally, I still look at ensembles for amounts and watch the deterministic runs for trends from this point forward.

Jury is still out on whether this is will be a true slider. MRX called it a Miller A, but there are still some really big differences downstream over the NE corridor. It may slide off the coast before it gets to the big cities. I would tend to say it is super similar to the 96-96 storm in terms of track. Kind of a slider but some Miller A characteristics since it may well try to turn the corner a bit. How NE TN fairs will depend on how much it turns the corner and backs the flow. The rain shadow is the issue for NE TN peeps right now. The 6z Euro was much better in that respect(more NE TN snow) as was the 6z GEFS. The 6z EPS is still running(out to 48). It is interesting to see the RGEM with an aggressive precip field. That might imply some mixing in the eastern valley if extrapolated, but it is at range and prob too amped. It is very similar to the 0z CMC in placement of the precip. MRX has a great snow graphic(posted above). I generally agree with that. I think NE TN has a decent chance to get over 4" of snow as the wrap around will help here w/ better ratios at that point. 3-6" for the eastern valley seems reasonable. Points westward may be higher. The angle of this into the forum area is going to be important. Still, even at this late time, the phase is not being modeled consistently. Numbers could be higher or lower depending on how that works out. The cold is in place, and the ground very cold. For E TN, this looks like this hits at night or as the sun sets Friday. Friday storms tend to be the norm of late. It is a weird deal that many great storms have arrived on the weekend, but it is kinda true.

We are also at the point where we can start watching the RGEM which looks aggressive.

6z Euro expanded its snow map. The 6z GFS shrunk it. But the are pretty close at this point.

Look at that source region....18z GEFS.

Yesterday, deterministic runs found a cold shot late in the run. The 12z EPS and GEPS are frigid late in their runs. The 18z GEFS is now leaning in that direction.

Yeah, we need less of those members and not more! The GFS is on the northwest side of the cone of probabilities. Honestly, if we can just get a blend of the Euro and GFS...should be good. I'd like to place my order now. LOL.

Not sure this is the right thread? The 18z GFS agains tries to build a glacier over the forum area.

E TN peeps, do not despair. The 18z GEFS is full of good trends, especially the clown map.

The 18z GFS was headed to glory...and then lost itself mid run. I doubt that happens in reality. Interestingly, it is an inland runner and not a coastal. As long as it doesn't continue to jog northwest during future runs, that is a good development for E TN.

To clarify....looks good to 102, then warm nose again for E TN. Overall, really good trends.

18z GFS should be good....

18z ICON is starting to catch on to this being a very powerful storm. Perfect track for a big storm...cuts inside of Hatteras. Ya'll know my "inside of Hatteras" rule.

The 18z NAM just looks like it is ready to go. Hey, I know it's the NAM, but at least we have a storm in range of the NAM!!!!....after tracking this pattern for a month.

Snow showers in KPT.

Interestingly, there are some fairly major changes post Jan 20 on both the EPS and GEPS. They are not putting the trough in the West. Instead, it is a broad trough over the eastern 2/3 of the country. Fairly big break in continuity.

Can I choose both?

I think this storm is going to turn the corner. Lots of ingredients in play for a big winter storm - western ridge, NAO, cold source, and room to climb. That gif is a really good illustration of each GEFS member's track. So, one can really see the differences in the model - and there are not many. The biggest thing to work out is whether there is a transfer of energy to the coast. Again, with these big storms, it is not uncommon for that to happen in E TN. Blend the CMC, UK, and GFS...pretty good track and storm.

FTR, the GFS is straight loaded on this run.

@Holston_River_Rambler, would it be possible for you go gif the "MSLP + Member Low Locations" from say 60-150 hours for the 12z GEFS? That is the one where all of the low members are one, single map. I have been using the East Coast view FWIW. That will give everyone a really good idea of the good and bad with the ensemble layout. Of note, you all can see a faint shadow of energy go through middle TN, a low in the Lakes, and predominantly most lows around Savannah. IF there is an energy handoff, the energy would handoff to Savanah from TN. I have seen that happen, but that is really rare. The model shows a pretty decent signal for a coastal only, but not a guarantee. The lows in the Lakes....yep, a problem. That is probably what is wrecking thermals in the E TN valley.

Correction...I don't think the 12z GEFS is south. The precip shield has expanded pretty significantly. Track is generally the same.

The 12z GEFS is coming in south of the deterministic not unsurprisingly. Could it be the deterministic is trending faster than the ensemble can catch up? Absolutely possible. But...until that deterministic locks in, I roll with the ensemble even this late in the game. So far, the 12z GFS is an outlier. Now, it can score a coup. We just saw that happen. However, it is oscillating from amped to GOM slider with each run. Recommendation for now....just blend the major operational models. That will get us pretty close. The dry slot is a problem for E TN, but not on all modeling. Downscoping is almost always a problem with slp on the coast. When it is an inland runner, precip can overcome that since it is closer to the storm center. Modeling is trying to get a handle on what could be a pretty big storm for many areas in the East.

LOL. Jeff got it first.... The other thing that we are seeing is some energy transfer from the eastern valley to the Piedmont. This has the chance to be a major winter storm form here to the Northeast. These types of storms often don't have details worked out until the storm is actually under way. I have been dry slotted when there was no dry slot forecast. I have been hammered when modeling jogged one way or the other at the last minute. I highly doubt that modeling even remotely has the specifics worked out. The generality is there is likely a winter storm affecting millions. The specifics of "who" not so much.