Carvers Gap

The next big window (excluding a couple of clippers this week for northern areas) is the 18-22nd. Winter options on the table are a cutter, overrunning, ana front or coastal. An ana front looks plausible. Overruning also plausible. I think we see at least one cutter. Rain chasing snow looks likely in cutter scenarios. Still a good 13-15 days left before a significant warmup. The cold analog package for January (wild card month) are likely going to win.

Just the way it goes. We have 0.5” and that will be it for MBY unless the atmosphere rings out moisture in the cold last night. We had more here Weds. At least county kids will be able to get back to school. They haven’t gone back yet due to Last Sunday’s snow and Wednesday’s surprise snow north of 81. The next two weeks have promise. Likely flip coming during that last week at some point, however. February looks warm, and almost all seasonal modeling had that. March could likely flip back cold,

Dry slot city for TRI if radar doesn’t pick it up. Red flag that radar north of 40 doesn’t even remotely match modeling. Oddly, as much news was made about the foothills, they might do ok.

Correct for areas north of 40.

The new 0z 3k NAM and 12k NAM appear to have worked out their issues over NE TN. Much higher amounts. I expect it is playing major league catch-up right now. The TRI fix brings it in line with other models. It is a work in progress.

Welcome back, man!!! Thanks especially to @Mr Bob for getting this fixed. Now, let's reel in this storm.

More upslope equals better winters for you foothills folks. Been less of that lately. It will come back.

@PowellVolz, you up and running. Sound check!

The 6z Euro AIFS is bitterly cold late in its run. It has been really good at spotting cold air masses at range. Looks like it also has plenty of chance for winter embedded.

Yeah, I definitely watch those last minute trends. The ICON is often the lower accumulation model when compared to other modeling for IMBY. So, when it bumps up...I take notice. Someone asked me a couple of days ago for Kingsport. I said 3-4" as a conservative estimate. I think some of the usual places in TRI could go +5. Some modeling has been placing NE TN under a heaving band as it exits. As you know, that is not an uncommon feature. We usually pack on another 1-2" of snow as those bands turn and come out of the Northwest. We may not get it all from the slider, but I do think some areas will even things up with those bands that will form as it exits. With the ground already so cold, we are at an advantage that we usually don't have. Good post. NE TN is complicated as usual.

Heavy banding! My favorite post of the day.

Speaking of the 12z HRRR...

12z CMC

Here is a more zoomed in version of the gfs:

12 GFS, ICON, RGEM, ARW on board. Dr No is up next. My guess is similar but with lighter precip. 12z GFS vs 6z GFS:

It could happen. Hi res models are definitely showing that potential. I don't think that is written in stone at the moment though.

12z GFS holds.

12z NBM

ARW, RGEM, ICON...almost identical at 12z. Let's see if the pattern continues.

12 RGEM for comparison....

So, the ARW is at 43(out of 48 hours). NE TN folks add a tenth or two more to your run(edi...full run shown). Now, take this model and compare it to what we have seen so far, and what is still to run. So far(with the notable exception of the NAM), this looks very similar. Now, I have seen one storm go horribly, epically wrong in terms of modeling. Charlotte was once forecast to get 4 feet of snow. Short range modeling got all sorts of feedback going as it turned the corner. They got nothing. I made the mistake of sharing that forecast with a friend of mine who works for ESPN. He wasn't happy when that didn't verify. I was scared to death(still am!) I was going to end up on his show for sending him that!!! LOL!!!

It is kind of pick your poison at this juncture. Ice or snow. Could all of that change? Sure. I would think by 18z, we have a much better picture. I hope so, because that is only 12 hours before the event starts in E TN(southern Plateau).

The 12z ARW is rock solid compared to its 0z run...remarkably similar.

NE TN peeps, the storm isn't even too our area on this model. Just to illustrate the 12z ARW run that is underway.

The 12z ARW is having none(and I mean none) of what the NAM is having. Ice doesn't even reach the southern TN state line on that model so far....and it is about halfway across the state so far.