Carvers Gap

Give me a tall, cool glass of ARW, please.

Short range models at range....view at your own peril. LOL. The 0z NAM was basically WAA. That probably isn't right, but we'll see. Models have definitely been clear that foothills could have issues with downsloping, rain shadow, and just general "storm ran out of stream" issues. It should come as no surprise these characteristics are seen on each run. There is no reason to be overly frustrated about things you cannot control. It is what it is. I think we will see winter weather, but it bears repeating....we live in the sub tropics. It wants to rain here, and if it can find a way...it will. That said, let's get a look at the entire model suite before panicking. The good thing is that is January...and it wants to snow sometimes. The 0z NAM was juiced from the first frame - the very first hour. The southern and northern streams had far more energy. Could it be the system is better sampled now? Sure. But it is a classic model bias of the NAM. That said, a robust trend north on modeling can happen at this range. Time will tell. Just last night, the system looked entirely out of gas!

@Daniel Boone1982 was mentioned by JB today. It looks like the temps alignment later in the month. The CPC d8-14 analogs have it. @John1122how was that winter? They can get that 1990 analog off of there! 19990105 19850129 19800124 20090123 19630110 20080118 19910122 19620109 19820110 19820204

Thanks, man. I told Powell to be checking his email(should be listed on his account). I can relay any messages if needed. He looked me up on Volquest(TN sports message board).

Weather in a straight line. Had that last weekend. Good times.

18z Euro looks good. Upped totals.

It is the he one feature which can overpower a bad MJO.

@Mr Bob, check your messages. PowelVolz needs back int…Somehow his old account got locked up, He has created a new one and just needs approval. Maybe @powellvolz1 is the new handle. Great poster. Just needs to be approved.

It isn’t a winter storm thread without you, man!

Are we ready to talk about this? Too soon?

18z GFS looking good.

Did the UKMET yet again signal a change in the qpf….this time upwards? Sure looks like it. Model watching might be fun tonight.

One thing that NE TN foothills communities need to remember -> Where you score is often on the upslope as the event passes. I think we are good to go(as confident as we can be while also knowing weather models are as fickle as all get out). Ground is rock hard cold up here in TRI. Whatever hits....is sticking. Let's roll.

The 18z ICON has also bumped up totals.

18z RGEM has increased totals slightly. I "think" we are starting to see the bump back up that we normally see as events are in view. Pretty consistently look for both the RGEM and NAM at 18z.

18z NAM is a beaut for NE TN folks (both 3k and 12k).

Been snowing here pretty much all day - mood flakes. Have a feeling this is just the beginning of winter.

It snowed about 1-2" here this morning, and caught everyone off guard. So, a WWA was issued. The current advisory overrides the WSW which is also issued also for the same area for Friday. Several reports in the observations thread. It was a mess.

Weather model releases across my platforms has slowed to a crawl or ceased.

Snow showers/flurries continue to fall over portions of TRI.

@tnweathernutconvection may indeed be the culprit w/ the Canadian products. Pretty easy to see over SE TX and Louisiana. Shuts down the fetch.

12z GFS appears to hold serve....nearly identical run. That is what we want to see.

The 12z GFS is rolling.

Been a pretty consistent trend on modeling since the 18z Euro washed out last night. However....it would not surprise me to see this amp up and jog north a bit on that model at the last minute. In NE TN we are still 48 hours out. More than once I have had a storm add to its qpf on modeling when it finally gets into the eastern Plains. Models kind of ebb and flow. I still use ensembles at this range because of that. Trends on short range modeling are generally a tick south with less qpf. I would suspect that trend south stops at 0z tonight or 6z tomorrow. Just a hunch. I would not want to bullseye right now.

For the 12z short range lunch menu, I am gonna roll with a blend of the 3k NAM for amounts and the RGEM track. I think the track is probably right on the RGEM, but it is undergoing its qpf. The 12k NAM.....isn't allowed to hang out with us today.