Carvers Gap

I knew all I needed to know when I saw the forecast package of WSWs on a straight line along the SW VA border last weekend and nothing below. That has never verified, and it didn’t last weekend. All of that despite clear modeling trends which depicted the possibility for wintry precip south of that line. Due to lack of proper advisories this week around TRI, I actually have a family friend who got caught in jt and likely totaled their car. I just about didn’t make it home Sunday due to their forecast (I should not have listened to it). Unimpressed this week, and that is very rare criticism from me. With the ground so cold, impacts from any frozen precip will be immediate and impactful around TRI. Are they going to make the same mistake a third time this week? I am all for conservative forecasts 48-72 hours out. This areas is tough to nail down, but we have already seen two misses this week alone due to waiting until the event is underway to issue winter wx products. We have school systems in this area(we all know who they are) which will open if the forecast isn’t clear.

0z GFS holds serve....

I was living with the Philistines that winter(Orlando). I missed my only two Tennessee winters and two football seasons while living in that furnace. I missed the World's Fair win over Bama and the 82 winter. I gotta a lot of great memories from Disney and Epcot....but no Tenn football, no mountains, and no winter just didn't jive with me! That said, the 18z EURO AIFS stalls that frontal boundary at the Apps just after 240(edit). It has an overrunning even modeled - lasts 48-72 hours.

Modeling this phase out west is no joke. It is amazing modeling can do this. We are relying on effective programming, reliable/ timely data of the storm, reliable/timely data in front and behind the storm, and trying to model chaos. The weather along the West Coast (just watch the news) shows how volatile things are in that corner of the world. The phase for this storm occurs just east of that area.

The 0z RGEM is running right now. Out to 45, pretty steady and nothing like the 0z 12k NAM. Might have jogged one county north vs two states.

This is where it goes at 42...

ARW. Pretty reliable little model that Jeff recommended years ago. I tend to look at it to keep steady. Hour 38 with two views - Ohio and GOM. You can see the moisture transport a little bit stuggling along the Ohio River. Now, go look at the convection along the GOM. It is cutting off the fetch. That is the main concern. That said, that is a really healthy, southern winter storm depicted there.

Give me a tall, cool glass of ARW, please.

Short range models at range....view at your own peril. LOL. The 0z NAM was basically WAA. That probably isn't right, but we'll see. Models have definitely been clear that foothills could have issues with downsloping, rain shadow, and just general "storm ran out of stream" issues. It should come as no surprise these characteristics are seen on each run. There is no reason to be overly frustrated about things you cannot control. It is what it is. I think we will see winter weather, but it bears repeating....we live in the sub tropics. It wants to rain here, and if it can find a way...it will. That said, let's get a look at the entire model suite before panicking. The good thing is that is January...and it wants to snow sometimes. The 0z NAM was juiced from the first frame - the very first hour. The southern and northern streams had far more energy. Could it be the system is better sampled now? Sure. But it is a classic model bias of the NAM. That said, a robust trend north on modeling can happen at this range. Time will tell. Just last night, the system looked entirely out of gas!

@Daniel Boone1982 was mentioned by JB today. It looks like the temps alignment later in the month. The CPC d8-14 analogs have it. @John1122how was that winter? They can get that 1990 analog off of there! 19990105 19850129 19800124 20090123 19630110 20080118 19910122 19620109 19820110 19820204

Thanks, man. I told Powell to be checking his email(should be listed on his account). I can relay any messages if needed. He looked me up on Volquest(TN sports message board).

Weather in a straight line. Had that last weekend. Good times.

18z Euro looks good. Upped totals.

It is the he one feature which can overpower a bad MJO.

@Mr Bob, check your messages. PowelVolz needs back int…Somehow his old account got locked up, He has created a new one and just needs approval. Maybe @powellvolz1 is the new handle. Great poster. Just needs to be approved.

It isn’t a winter storm thread without you, man!

Are we ready to talk about this? Too soon?

18z GFS looking good.

Did the UKMET yet again signal a change in the qpf….this time upwards? Sure looks like it. Model watching might be fun tonight.

One thing that NE TN foothills communities need to remember -> Where you score is often on the upslope as the event passes. I think we are good to go(as confident as we can be while also knowing weather models are as fickle as all get out). Ground is rock hard cold up here in TRI. Whatever hits....is sticking. Let's roll.

The 18z ICON has also bumped up totals.

18z RGEM has increased totals slightly. I "think" we are starting to see the bump back up that we normally see as events are in view. Pretty consistently look for both the RGEM and NAM at 18z.

18z NAM is a beaut for NE TN folks (both 3k and 12k).

Been snowing here pretty much all day - mood flakes. Have a feeling this is just the beginning of winter.

It snowed about 1-2" here this morning, and caught everyone off guard. So, a WWA was issued. The current advisory overrides the WSW which is also issued also for the same area for Friday. Several reports in the observations thread. It was a mess.