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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    This is this week compared to week 4(well days 20-27...run is still going) of the GEFS extended. This is a signal for a pretty nice cold shot from this range. It will change some, but worth noting. When the entire continent is cold...source regions are good. Send the STJ into that....and could be interesting.
  2. Carvers Gap
    The GEFS ext is showing the same thing during that time frame. Now, some can kicking wouldn't be out of the norm, but nice time frame if it works out. If not, we start tracking spring wx and making vacation plans
  3. Carvers Gap
    I don't think a single model shows the same thing. LOL. It looks like a squirrel went berserk in the First Self-Righteous Church In that sleepy little town of Pascagoula. As for a dry spell. I won't ever rule it out. Cold and dry is not abnormal. But the STJ is absolutely ripping right now. Should be good in that regard.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Not trying to wish my life away, but I am pretty much flushing the next three weeks in terms of looking for winter. So, the end of week 3 is where my eyes are for now.... Week 4 of the Weeklies...control and then ensemble....days 21-28. You can see the 18z GEFS begin to erode the eastern ridge. The Euro Weeklies basically slide a decent trough in there by the 14th. At that point, we should see an absolutely torrid cold front race across the country around that timeframe - give our take 48 hours. Now, this is still waaaay out there. It could change, and probably will. The MJO is trying to dance around in 6-7-8. I think if we can get the MJO headed towards 8, the floodgates(of cold) are gonna be open. It looks like the EPO is the driver w/ a -NAO possible accentuating that. My guess is the stratwarm stuff will do about what it did last week. It will be a warmer air mass than last week likely as it is a month later than last week.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Maybe some wrap-around snow. As Jeff noted, wall-to-wall cold during January for 14 days is unlikely. That said, this is definitely a warm-warm-warm upcoming time frame on the horizon. What comes after Feb 1 could be toasty. Fortunately, it should be only a couple of weeks after that...and then we are back in the freezer.
  6. Carvers Gap
    It was like summer over here! The only thing I hate is that it is going to erase our negative temperature departure. Somebody is gonna talk about how warm January 2024 was! LOL. If they only knew.
  7. Carvers Gap
    And it makes no sense to me in the modern era to only use airport reporting. (I do know that historic snow records do exist for Kingsport proper). Really, I have no problem w/ regular people sending in reports which populate a larger database. Sure, there would be some scientific descepency. That said, it would be pretty easy to develop programming which would flush outliers. TRI more often times than not doesn't tell the entire story for snow in the Tri-Cities. Often, it is the least snowiest place in the region....well, outside of the EB!!! LOL. With satellite reporting, it should be better than it is. In southwest Virginia, I don't think people realize how snow that area is right on the KY/VA border. Wise just gets clobbered, and so does your area. Off topic, one of my favorite things on Friday night is to see the highlights from SW VA. So many small schools, but such great tradition. Some great ballers from that area!
  8. Carvers Gap
    True on 2015 here in Kingsport. We had snow on the ground for about a month. I have roughly 30 inches of snow at my house. It is the most I have seen during a season.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Euro Weeklies look right on track for cold to return around the 14th, give or take 48 hours at this range. The control is bitterly cold around the 20th, and the CFSv2 has a similar signal. Most global ensembles are showing the initial transition around d15-16. Remember, transition does not mean the day we get cold. Should be 4-7 days after that initial transition. Looks like a similar window (Against mid Feb norms and not mid Jan) to the one we just departed. A very 95-96 or 14-15 cycle of cold. MJO is ruling the roost and it is super squirrelly right now. We should see opportunities with this, and it looks centered slightly more eastward. JB mentioned that adjustment and that looks to be the case.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Actually, I didn't put it in the thread, because I doubted it. (I certainly doubt the snow record for TRI.) I just thought it was kind of cool. I lived in Knox during the 70s, and we had plenty of snow. But I don't remember it staying around like this storm. I did also live in Knoxville during the 95-96 winter. Similar to 93-94, it hung around for a long time. I think that post by MRX indeed might be correct for lower elevations in Knoxville. Knoxville, being right smack on the river, doesn't keep snow like other areas. Kingsport is the same. So, seeing snow last this long is rare IMBY. North facing slopes here still have plenty of snow as do north facing concert sidewalks. That is ten days from the onset of snow, which is incredibly impressive. Glad for the warm-up!!!!!
  11. Carvers Gap
    Remember when there was discussion about how dry things were in December and how warm it was? One thing that was noted was that if this was an El Nino winter it should be cloudy and rainy, especially for the eastern half of the state. The other thing which was noted was that the second half of winter should be colder w/ systems tracking out of the GOM. Also, remember how the October/September time frames were so dry(this year was top 5 driest...three of the years were El Nino), but that the following winter featured a lot of cold? The potential for flooding is now an issue for mid and late week due to our snow pack melting -> welcome to El Nino.
  12. Carvers Gap
    The Nolichucky and North Fork of the Holston Rivers have large portions frozen over. I have seen this one other time. Impressive to say the least.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Just looking at the Weeklies...the 14th looks like a good place to start for more cold weather. So, basically the end of week 3 on modeling or the beginning of the third week in February. The control is very cold, and maybe a bit quicker as it has the cold at the front beginning of week 3. The ensemble was less cold while the control was pretty frigid compared to yesterday's run. Looks like a good timeline. It could be quicker during future runs given MJO trends...but looks about right to me. We gotta pay the MJO toll.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I just posted and should have read yours first. It is MOVING on along. Does it hit the wall in 6 or keep going? I bet it keeps going. Good trends. The 12z GFS certainly seems like it is buying the faster MJO. I suspect the ensemble will wash out and go slower...but the trends matter. Good post.
  15. Carvers Gap
    We have two camps of the MJO today....loop back into warm phases forever or progress quickly to cold phases. My money is on neither. LOL. I suspect it continues to cold phases at a normal pace.
  16. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS is workable for an interim timeframe until we can maybe get a better deal by Feb 10. Backdoor cold fronts FTW?
  17. Carvers Gap
    Preliminary discussion this AM..... As noted earlier, I see the 500 pattern beginning to change around the 7th. I don't see cold in the pattern until maybe the 12th-14th at the earliest. One poster in the MA forum (I think a met) mentioned that Nino winters tend to have a second cold snap centered in mid-Feb. I have found that to be true, and maybe centered slightly more towards the beginning of Feb vs later. New MJO plots should post sometime this morning, and that should shed some light on potential upcoming model trends. Most 0z ensembles are very stubborn to move (upcoming) much AN heights out of the eastern half of NA. The 0z GFS tried to get us out of that pattern, but the 6z didn't follow it. Wx models are often too quick to break down stable weather patterns, and the upcoming eastern ridge is as stable as it gets IMO. My thinking is still similar to yesterday. Could winter come back by the 5th? Sure, and I hope so. I certainly don't know the future. Let's see what the CPC MJO plots look like this morning. Pattern change begins today. Let's see where it takes us. Is it a thaw or a true 3-4 week change? We will see.
  18. Carvers Gap
    IDK. I lived in Knoxvegas during the 70s. I remember lots of snow. But being so young, I don't remember how long it lasted. It seemed reasonably frequent, but I don't remember it staying around for a long time. I do remember being out of school for long stretches of time. I would think '94 would have come close. That is the longest I have seen snow on the ground in Knoxville....frozen tundra.
  19. Carvers Gap
    I put this in the pattern discussion thread, but it is worth a mention in the obs thread. From MRX on social media... Knoxville has so far confirmed 6 consecutive days with 4" or more of snow on the ground. This is tied with February 2-7, 1996 as the most consecutive days with 4" or more of snow depth with data going back to 1910. At our office, the same is true, but our data only goes back to the 1995-1996 winter. When looking at 6" or greater depth, Knoxville confirmed 4 consecutive days, which is the 2nd longest in the 114-year period of snow depth data. #mrxwx
  20. Carvers Gap
    From MRX on social media... Knoxville has so far confirmed 6 consecutive days with 4" or more of snow on the ground. This is tied with February 2-7, 1996 as the most consecutive days with 4" or more of snow depth with data going back to 1910. At our office, the same is true, but our data only goes back to the 1995-1996 winter. When looking at 6" or greater depth, Knoxville confirmed 4 consecutive days, which is the 2nd longest in the 114-year period of snow depth data. #mrxwx
  21. Carvers Gap
    I am starting to feel like modeling has a decent handle on the timing of the upcoming 500 pattern. Webb mentioned this on Twitter. JB mentioned this as well, and so did Cosgrove. -> The pattern, which began the days after Christmas and will end early this week, is set to repeat itself beginning Feb 7th. Now, that might sound like I am speeding up the timeline. Nope, not in general. Maybe an argument can be made that modeling has moved forward about 72 hours depending on the metric (500 vs surface temps). MJO plots reflected that this morning - slightly speeding up the return of winter. The second week of Feb(7-14) will be similar to the transition right after Christmas. Ridge gets kicked out. BN heights (weak at first) begin to nudge under the eastern ridge. The trough will have little to no cold in it. Eventually, the trough builds in the East w/ a -NAO building over the top. Look familiar? By Valentine's Day, the Weeklies have this: By the third week in February, we get this in regards to temps - round 2. Now, we need BN temps by this time in order to have a decent shot at snow(average temps are higher by this time), and that is what is in order if this model is correct. Week 1 - warm. Week 2 - less warm. Week 3 - cold. Week 4 cold. Early March - cold. I feel like I have seen this movie before. Jet retracts. MJO rotates into colder phases. NAO fires. Winter. I do think the MJO is playing a familiar game in which it is too slow to rotate in the long range and dawdles too long in warm phases. Let's see if the cold is moved up during the next few days. Models are just now "feeling" the effects of the recent strat warm. It is still possible that model mayhem could ensue.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Sun angle matters to some extent. That said, I have seen snow in Yellowstone on June 14th. They have an elevation advantage and a latitude advantage for sure....but that is almost the summer solstice. February during the past nine winters has been decently boring...but when it is on, it is on. The snow doesn’t last quite as long, but this year might buck the trend. But yes, the return to winter is generally considered our “end” of winter. The can kick from the 7th to mid Feb is a thorn.
  23. Carvers Gap
    MJO runs this morning do show less of a pause in phase 6. As noted, that pause in the long range has been a bias all winter. The MJO has generally sped up some through the end of January. It still goes slower through 6, but fewer models cause it to stay indefinitely. I am still thinking roughly Feb 15 - first week of March. Now, if the CFSv2 is correct...the entire sequence changes up. I don’t think today’s version is correct. No real changes to my thoughts yesterday. It is possible that we see colder timeframe move up slightly during the next few weeklies’ runs in order to reflect the MJO moves. Still a long way to go... The Euro Weeklies switched the pattern back to seasonal around Feb 14-16, and turned very cold by roughly the 20th. Remember how the pattern changed after Christmas but took a couple of weeks for cold air to take over. Same deal. If we can get the pattern change to move up to the 10th, that would be huge.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Starting to see the effects of the strat warm on the Weeklies....much more blocking up top, especially on the control run. The NAO is showing up as well after the 10th.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Just looking at the MJO and 12z suite...once we are through the next 48 yours, the real question is when do we go below freezing again after Tuesday. Big time, and likely lengthy warm-up still on tap. We need the CFSv2 to score a coup. Still a micro window around the 31st, but that is fading.
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