Carvers Gap

Let's just take a minute and admire how different these maps are. The first is the GFS. The second is the Canadian. Left thumbnail is 12z and the right is 0z for the CMC. 12z and 6z, respectively, for the GFS. The CMC is composed of two systems. I can't even remember what the GFS was going. Both have a first system thump, and then we diverge. Might be just a little bit of feedback on the CMC. The CMC does have a bias towards feedback over South Carolina. Take a minute and notice the differences over the NE from run to run and between models.

That first system is such a wonky set-up. My expectations are super low. But models are spitting out some decent numbers. It is trending into a bigger storm in the NE which I think is having massive upstream impacts for the next system. How that first system gets handled is making for some wild variations for mid-week. 12z suite is the pro wrestling at this point - anything goes. Models are throwing chairs, jumping off the top rope, and tagging out.

The GFS can score coups, but if the Euro is still suppressed....I am gonna have to toss the GFS. It was waaaaay to far north with last weekend's system, and didn't correct until late. If the CMC jogs 150 miles northwest, E TN gets thumped. I have no idea what the trend is at this point. HOWEVER, the ensembles (prior to 12z...haven't looked at those yet) are pretty much the CMC/ICON tracks.

The difference at the surface is central Georgia or Chicago. I think the GFS is having some NAM problems.

The 12z RGEM implies that middle TN could get thumped on Sunday with 3-4". I know this is a bit late to be discussing it(and we are watching mid-week), but the RGEM was not benign nor is the GFS.

@tnweathernut and NE TN/SW VA peeps. I know tnweathernut has mentioned this Sunday as sneaky. The GFS has some decent totals for Sunday as that system on the 12z GFS is stronger off the NE coast after it leaves here. That implies that this "might" be a late bloomer on modeling. Are we looking at mountain amounts which are smoothed into valleys or is this a legit 3-5" opportunity at the last minute? For folks not in the mountains, often modeling will make it look like TRI is going to get thumped when in reality it is mountain totals bleeding into other grids due to smoothing. In reality(from a bird's eye view from directly above), often the rain snow line can be quite abrupt in reality.

IMHO, right where E TN folks want it at this range. Nice trend.

This is how much the GFS is on an island. The 0z Euro AIFS doesn't even have the system above Mobile, Alabama. There are really two impulses. There is one on the 21st-ish and next on the 24th-ish. Modeling is probably struggling with which one to amp. But on the AIFS, neither are there. Again, looking at ensembles, we are going to need to see those ensembles begin to move today or this one is gonna be tough to reel in. Overall in the long range, it looks like we take a TBD big-time warm-up after next week. The GEFS ext MJO ends winter for all but the northern most latitudes of the forum and higher elevations. The Euro Weeklies race across warm phases and then stall before hitting phase 8 of the MJO. We want the Euro to be right. Otherwise, things are going to be blooming by the end of February. When we start talking about the MJO, usually that means we are about to see extended warmth. I suspect that seasonal analogs(almost all are warm for Feb) are correct in February being much AN with March cooling back off. Chance for a little late season magic if analogs are correct for March. So far, the 2018 analog has been money. I had it as one of two analogs for my winter forecast. 2017 was the other. The one fly(a good one) in the ointment for February could be the PDO flipping. If it flips, it will try to trump the MJO and has the ability to do so.

Ensembles barely graze areas north of 40. There is almost zero support for frozen precip north of 40 right now on ensembles. It is possible that operationals are leading the way. I certainly can see that is possible. But the the ensemble mean is waaaaaay down there. I would really caution using the GFS right now. It was woefully wrong with the last system, and is on a total island with this next one. I hope it is right. That means I get to see winter one last time before a possible much AN February.

For NE TN peeps we are going to have to root for this to move northwest a bunch. Ensembles have this buried (I mean absolutely buried). I think the 0z GFS run was a one-off. I think the 6z GFS is still probably too amped. The GFS has a little bit of NAM in it at range. Everything is too amplified. I would be really surprised if this is a forum wide event. I think this is going to be a SE TN event, non-event, or E TN event in that order. It is that suppressed on ensembles.

Ensembles this morning still have a Deep South slider. I would be really surprised if this cut. I think we are in the window where modeling kind of loses storms and gets them back. Plus, there is a general rule in my mind that modeling doesn't handle severe cold well....that causes wild swings.

6z GFS is back to a winter storm for the forum area....snow and ice. Modeling just doesn't have this dialed in at this point.

Bastardi is saying the PDO (CFS) is showing warm water getting to the coast by Feb. I am noticing the Euro Weeklies pushing back the warm-up into February. If it pushes back three more weeks...we will have made it to spring! Now, before we say he is biased cold, it is worth noting his winter forecast is WARM. It could bust if February goes cold. Again, seeing some subtle changes in ext ensembles for February.

Got a great friend who is from Jackson, MS. Glad you got your red tag!

When we see ensembles at 144 which are below zero (actual temps), we are dealing with significant cold.

The scenario is there for this to be more than one.

The 12z kuchera for the GFS is no joke, folks. I still think this Sunday system is causing some problems or maybe is a symptom of the problem. How the jet buckles is going to be key. The CMC, as Holston noted, went with wave 1 after Sunday. The GFS held back and caught the second wave. Yeah, sounds like surfing...sorry.

Went driving with my friend Bill C from Powell (@PowellVolzmight have known Bill). Bill passed away recently. Bill had a yellow jeep. We drove out in the middle of that storm. It probably wasn't the wisest of moves, but I was in college and didn't know better. That said, the wind and the snow was something like you would see at higher elevations. The snow was almost like a mist.

Connect that with a strong Arctic front, and we get the 12z suite so far.

So, I think we can say the strong Arctic front means business. How the STJ(subtropical jet) interacts with it is still....up in the air. Sorry, really bad Dad joke on my part, @*Flash*. I couldn't resist.

Yeah, man. In the words of the great Ted Lasso, "Barbecue sauce."

GFS and CMC both with significant winter storms.

Wow at the Canadian, Holston. I hadn't even looked. Man, what a storm.

The GFS...I feel like I just watched 40 model runs of that scenario. LOL

MJO stuff.... Euro keeps winter rolling right into February with a week long break at the end of January. Hopefully, the Euro is better with the MJO. I can't remember which. We just need a quick rotation through the warm phases like it shows. The GEFS ext pretty much ends winter at the end of January.....high amplitude 6 members! Yikes. LOL. But if they can swing into 8 at high amplitude, the end of Feb could be interesting.