Carvers Gap

This is how much the GFS is on an island. The 0z Euro AIFS doesn't even have the system above Mobile, Alabama. There are really two impulses. There is one on the 21st-ish and next on the 24th-ish. Modeling is probably struggling with which one to amp. But on the AIFS, neither are there. Again, looking at ensembles, we are going to need to see those ensembles begin to move today or this one is gonna be tough to reel in. Overall in the long range, it looks like we take a TBD big-time warm-up after next week. The GEFS ext MJO ends winter for all but the northern most latitudes of the forum and higher elevations. The Euro Weeklies race across warm phases and then stall before hitting phase 8 of the MJO. We want the Euro to be right. Otherwise, things are going to be blooming by the end of February. When we start talking about the MJO, usually that means we are about to see extended warmth. I suspect that seasonal analogs(almost all are warm for Feb) are correct in February being much AN with March cooling back off. Chance for a little late season magic if analogs are correct for March. So far, the 2018 analog has been money. I had it as one of two analogs for my winter forecast. 2017 was the other. The one fly(a good one) in the ointment for February could be the PDO flipping. If it flips, it will try to trump the MJO and has the ability to do so.

Ensembles barely graze areas north of 40. There is almost zero support for frozen precip north of 40 right now on ensembles. It is possible that operationals are leading the way. I certainly can see that is possible. But the the ensemble mean is waaaaaay down there. I would really caution using the GFS right now. It was woefully wrong with the last system, and is on a total island with this next one. I hope it is right. That means I get to see winter one last time before a possible much AN February.

For NE TN peeps we are going to have to root for this to move northwest a bunch. Ensembles have this buried (I mean absolutely buried). I think the 0z GFS run was a one-off. I think the 6z GFS is still probably too amped. The GFS has a little bit of NAM in it at range. Everything is too amplified. I would be really surprised if this is a forum wide event. I think this is going to be a SE TN event, non-event, or E TN event in that order. It is that suppressed on ensembles.

Ensembles this morning still have a Deep South slider. I would be really surprised if this cut. I think we are in the window where modeling kind of loses storms and gets them back. Plus, there is a general rule in my mind that modeling doesn't handle severe cold well....that causes wild swings.

6z GFS is back to a winter storm for the forum area....snow and ice. Modeling just doesn't have this dialed in at this point.

Bastardi is saying the PDO (CFS) is showing warm water getting to the coast by Feb. I am noticing the Euro Weeklies pushing back the warm-up into February. If it pushes back three more weeks...we will have made it to spring! Now, before we say he is biased cold, it is worth noting his winter forecast is WARM. It could bust if February goes cold. Again, seeing some subtle changes in ext ensembles for February.

Got a great friend who is from Jackson, MS. Glad you got your red tag!

When we see ensembles at 144 which are below zero (actual temps), we are dealing with significant cold.

The scenario is there for this to be more than one.

The 12z kuchera for the GFS is no joke, folks. I still think this Sunday system is causing some problems or maybe is a symptom of the problem. How the jet buckles is going to be key. The CMC, as Holston noted, went with wave 1 after Sunday. The GFS held back and caught the second wave. Yeah, sounds like surfing...sorry.

Went driving with my friend Bill C from Powell (@PowellVolzmight have known Bill). Bill passed away recently. Bill had a yellow jeep. We drove out in the middle of that storm. It probably wasn't the wisest of moves, but I was in college and didn't know better. That said, the wind and the snow was something like you would see at higher elevations. The snow was almost like a mist.

Connect that with a strong Arctic front, and we get the 12z suite so far.

So, I think we can say the strong Arctic front means business. How the STJ(subtropical jet) interacts with it is still....up in the air. Sorry, really bad Dad joke on my part, @*Flash*. I couldn't resist.

Yeah, man. In the words of the great Ted Lasso, "Barbecue sauce."

GFS and CMC both with significant winter storms.

Wow at the Canadian, Holston. I hadn't even looked. Man, what a storm.

The GFS...I feel like I just watched 40 model runs of that scenario. LOL

MJO stuff.... Euro keeps winter rolling right into February with a week long break at the end of January. Hopefully, the Euro is better with the MJO. I can't remember which. We just need a quick rotation through the warm phases like it shows. The GEFS ext pretty much ends winter at the end of January.....high amplitude 6 members! Yikes. LOL. But if they can swing into 8 at high amplitude, the end of Feb could be interesting.

It is sneaky for E TN! The 12z ICON has it.

They knew pretty well in advance. I don't think many believed the ones who knew. Weather modeling nailed that thing from 7-8 days out. I think it was TWC that began to cover it early. I remember a news station in Knoxville saying that something was brewing. It was kind of the public awakening to computer weather modeling. It was a reasonably simply phase along an Arctic front. Unfortunately, I now watch every Arctic front for this very phenomena. That storm is one that sits alone on a shelf, and likely will never be joined in its classification. 70mph wind gusts in the valleys with wind driven snow. It hit on a weekend which is an interesting coincidence for many great storms.

The Weather Channel was on it well in advance. They were my go-to source for weather back in the day. I always knew what time they would talk about the extended forecast in depth. I would stop what I was doing and hustle to watch it. I also read afternoon discussions by the National Weather Service. But it all started with my grandparent's weather radio even before the TWC. (We have at least two news weather mets on our own forum who probably worked those '93 shifts....maybe more)

Really what keeps this from going out to sea is the phase. No phase. No storm for all but the most southern parts of the forum. It is simple as that. The system in front (Sunday) is super wonky, and it is messing with the dynamics of the system (the bigger one which is off and on modeling) that follows. Spacing between the two storms and the strength of that first system matters. Right now, that first system is so wonky, I am not even sure what we actually want it to do! There is a lee side low that forms. I haven't looked closely, but if the strength of that lee side might be influencing what follows. The second system...the phase doesn't look overly complicated like it did with last weekend's system. However, the timing of the waves, amplitude and wavelength frequency are huge. That first system is causing changes in that.

That is understood at this range.

If you want a big storm, you want the polar jet to feed energy in.

Triple phased? The above by Holston looks like it. Something to keep an eye on as we go forward. It pulls the polar jet in….