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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Also, for me, one of the most interesting times in using computer models to predict the weather as a hobby....is when ensembles can’t keep up with trends. I am not sure we are seeing that just yet, but maybe. The GFS will often pivot before other operational modeling, and we might be seeing that. If has been flirting with a return to cold earlier than its ensemble as has the Euro control. OTH operationals are likely just too fast with the cold. For now, ensembles are probably right...but one can see the change to a colder pattern between d10-16.
  2. Carvers Gap
    FTR, I am not quite ready to say that the return to cold is speeding up. All ensembles are still warm through the 10th. That said, if the MJO input into modeling is as bad as it has been modeled on CPC...we could see a fairly significant change in modeling within the next 24-48 hours. Yes, I am not predicting weather but model trends!
  3. Carvers Gap
    The CPC MJO is now 75% across phase 6 of the MJO...in just two days. It matches perfectly the extreme warmth we have had at TRI...nearly to the hour. It went up slightly in amplitude. However, now we wait to see if it stalls. If it leaves 6 tomorrow, we know that modeling was badly wrong. The fact the MJO has been moving this fast is already a model error on those plots. So, I cautiously think it will leave 6 quickly. Tomorrow will tell the tale.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Interesting find. I always like DT. I haven't read his stuff in a couple of winters. Thunder in the mountains....eerily accurate little rule. The 0z GEFS is definitely quicker. It is still very warm, but at 500 it is in the boat. The 0z EPS and GEPS are about on schedule (Feb12-14 cold switch). The 6z GFS is one backdoor cold front after another - so, it shows the potential. It really seems(and this is where I would differ w/ DT) that the pattern is centered around a NE blizzard/snowstorm. If it materializes, then it could force a trough into the EC w/ the power of its circulation. If the MJO is still moving strongly for the next couple of days...we will know the warm pattern will likely be shorter. I think models are very much struggling w/ the Pacific set-up though...I can get on board with that. I am definitely good w/ the warmth ending sooner than latter. TRI was almost 22.8 degrees above normal yesterday. It felt like early summer. The low yesterday was 53. In two days, our BN departures were cut in half which is tough to day given that there are only five days left in Jan(and lots of data points balance out warm). My one concern is that some modeling is showing a quicker return to cold...but on those models, the warmth comes back mid-month and the cold isn't quite strong enough for snow. I think that is the MJO looping back into warm phases showing up. That might be an error. OTH, this may just be one of those winters where it is cold and stormy and modeling never catches up. It is starting to seem that way. Big model test coming up. If all modeling misses an early February cold snap, maybe it is time to start asking why(for the second time this winter) modeling missed something that significant on the cold side of things.
  5. Carvers Gap
    JB mentioned tonight that with AI, wx forecasting(by humans) is probably near the end of its time. That is true for a lot of jobs. Right now as hobby(wx), we are essentially working to understand what will be infused into tomorrow's computer program. Nobody cares about IOS on iPhones, they just care that it works dependably. Is the weather headed in the same direction. As long as the app works, does it matter if a single person on this planet understands the atmospheric physics behind the computer program? I hope there will always be people who seek to understand, to think, to better their minds. Anyway, I thought a good deep dive discussion might be how this hobby and potentially wx forecasting as a whole will survive the influx of almost certain AI programming. I am reminded in Dances with Wolves when Costner's character was asked how many European settlers were coming West. He hedged the first few times he was asked. Then, he was honest....the influx of people was going to be enormous and unstoppable. AI reminds me of being in a place without burdens and constructs...the potential is there for AI to swallow up everything that we know and hold dear just as the Plains cultures were swallowed up. Certainly, AI can make our lives better. For Native Americans, they would be given modern tools...but the Plains in which many lived would be fenced, property rights given, and their way of life gone. Well, anyway, after this Ecclesiastical post(everything is meaningless), have at it....
  6. Carvers Gap
    They aren't blooming, but just breaking the surface. Some years, they are up by early January. They are on a south facing slope.
  7. Carvers Gap
    This is going to really stress the limits of the thunder in the mountains rule. If it snows in ten days, I will never question the rule. I mean it works about 90% of the time. We can just throw out the Weeklies if it works this time. We will use thunder only for next winter if so.
  8. Carvers Gap
    My daffodils made it to the surface which surprises me! Our snow just cleared two days ago. I think someone in that group of perennials was like, "Let's make a break for it." LOL.
  9. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Snowman has to stay up until second week of March, man. Got to find a way. Be careful, someone from the Mid-Atlantic forum might come for it though. I have my blue snow shovel out front from the 14-15' winter. Just doing my part.
  10. Carvers Gap
    We may have used up our elk mojo. It all comes down to whether that wooly worm was right, and whether the metal snowman(whose was that?) has got anything left in the tank. Now, in YNP elk will go to lower elevations if it gets cold. The elk may be headed to Florida for vacation.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Maybe later this evening or tomorrow morning(once the new MJO plots are out), I will look(and anyone else as wel) a bit deeper into the possibility that the cold returns more quickly. I think even modeling has one foot in that camp and one foot out. Cosgrove has ridden an analog forecast all winter, and it has served him well. I think I remember him saying those analogs say this thaw should be brief. I have Feb cold for my seasonal forecast, so I am definitely hoping for a cold return sooner than later. Thanks for the info!
  12. Carvers Gap
    Feb 10-March11. No, I don't think it will be that dry, but it isn't out of the realm of reason given the strong EPO out West. A strong EPO will often suppress the MJO, and is a negative consequence sometimes of a good Pac set-up. That said, we had nearly the identical precip depiction for January on the Weeklies...I just didn't post the BN precip map, because I thought it was wrong (given seasonal trends for the STJ to win out). I suspect that to be the case this time as well. However, this set-up is slightly different than the mid Jan cold snap. The dominant feature will likely be the EPO/PNA w/ the NAO likely more of a secondary feature. Also, sometimes LR ext modeling will have less precip where there will be more snow. That turned out to be the case recently. Storm track is visible. North Carolina should gets some shots this time around or at least have something to track. @Itryatgolf70, this is fits what Webb was discussing. I do think if the Weeklies had been derived from the 12z run, the control would have been colder and the ensemble warmer. Sometimes, control and operational runs will catch a trend. Either way, I think modeling is beginning to pick-up on cold returning which is great. Cosgrove seems to favor a week 3 return to cold. Though, he has some busted pipes and wants a brief warm-up - I don't blame him. Below is the d9-16 temp map which is cold, and that is what I was really wanting to share. I added the control's full month of Feb just for funl: Sadily, the end of winter is beginning to show up at the very end of the control. The ensemble runs winter well into March. So, the window (about 3 weeks) is on both the control and ensemble. The control is quicker into the EC but burns out quickly. The ensemble is about 7-10 days later, and keeps it colder for a similar time...it only ends, because the run ends.
  13. Carvers Gap
    The Euro control (today as well) has been very quick to return cold to the East. its ensemble is about 5-7 days slower. I tend to roll with ensembles at this stage. I hope he is correct. Webb has struggled w/ the EC pattern for most of winter. This would be a great time for him to get it right. Euro control(which is basically just another member of the broader ensemble group of members) is huckleberry. I would also add that there are some MJO runs on the CPC which would support his thinking.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The NE is has been trying to back into something good off-and-on for several runs on different models. That was a wild run. Fujiwhara effect on fully display. I am not sure I have seen it to that level. Backdoor cold fronts will work in regards to at least muting a portion of the MJO. Although, the MJO on a lot of model plots is ducking into 7 and then looping back in 6. That brief relaxation may be allowing for some mischief in New England.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Brave soul!!!!
  16. Carvers Gap
    Fits the timing from this forum. Maybe he has been reading it. LOL.
  17. Carvers Gap
    But truly, I am just glad not to be running in sub 10F wind chill right now. A week or two break is fine with me!
  18. Carvers Gap
    The 12z operational GFS went back to the warm side again. That model is going to be right....it has literally shown every solution that is possible.
  19. Carvers Gap
    It could happen. It is the Upper South. Even during good winters, we squander a bunch of weeks. February can also rock. Snow just doesn't hang around as long. The MJO is ruling the roost with an iron fist this winter, cold and warm. Yesterday we hit 70 degrees during our colder climatology as the MJO rolled into 6. I read somewhere on another forum that the MJO is fairly random in how it affects EC weather. I tried not to laugh. It is nearly perfectly synced this winter, and has been for the past four years with maybe a couple of notable exceptions. Until it reaches favorable phases, it is going to be warm and approaching daily records at times. That said, it ripped into phase 6 overnight. There is likely going to be a stall somewhere between now and phase 8. The closer it gets to 8, the better we are if/when it stalls. You can see the pattern change back to cold on both the GEFS and GEPS at 12z. Ridge gets kicked NE and a trough slowly builds underneath. My snowiest month is almost always February. It just hasn't been lately.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Now that, is a classic El Nino (smash W NC) run, and what I envisioned over the summer...the low road express. It might be a bit too quick w/ the transition to cold, but that is a great example of an active STJ. If this was La Nina, I would worry about dry cold. That gives me reasonable confidence (well, as much confidence as one can have w/ predicting weather) the STJ is going to stay active for a while. El Nino "should" bury the Smokies more times than not.
  21. Carvers Gap
    The good thing is that the actual MJO plot is still moving right along - stall sill predicted within a few days by GFS modeling. The MJO entered 6 on overnight modeling updates. It is about a fourth of the way across. So, it has about 19 days(to hit LR ext modeling timelines) to get from where it is now across the rest of phase 6 and 7...to get to 8. While I do agree it can snow in 7, we are better off in 8=1-2. We are about to find out if it is going to stall. The EMON(Euro ext plot) from yesterday gets across phase 6 in two days. The GMON(GFS ext plot) takes 16 days. One might imagine that timing difference has some pretty big consequences in modeling. A warning about the EMON, that is based upon yesterday's 0z run. Today's 0z run looks like hot garbage...so, we will see tomorrow morning what the new Weeklies MJO plot looks like. Take a look at the last two runs of the GFS(0z and 6z). One is a warmista pattern, and one is a return to winter(warm wx did we even know ya?) pattern. And that has been a common theme with that model for a couple of days. The GFS is just picking flower petals with each run right now.....loves me, loves me not. LOL.
  22. Carvers Gap
    It could be a slog through some very warm temps to get there. It reminds me of this past December in a lot of ways. Lots of warm weather and despair. The MJO plots today don't give me happy thoughts, but hopefully those ext long range looks know something the CPC MJO programming doesn't. My main concern is seeing modeling get to 6 and not being able to past it. They just hit a wall. I thought maybe at first that was jus some bias. However, a full stall or a loop in the warm phases is likely at this point. The good thing is that the timeline by LR ext modeling still looks reasonable(unless the GFS is right) even with the full stall taken into account. The GFS MJO (from this morning) would end winter, but I don't think it is right.. I "think" we see a nice return to winter, but I can definitely make an argument that its return could be brief and muted. For now, I do like seeing agreement in long range ext modeling about the progression, timeline, and duration of the cold snap. But at 21 days out.....it could still flip.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The first two are control runs for week 4. The last two are their accompanying ensembles. I have some commentary in the Jan thread(thought I was in this thread).
  24. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler, man, sorry!!! I will get the rest of my posts in your Feb thread. I thought that is where I was!!!!
  25. Carvers Gap
    This is this week compared to week 4(well days 20-27...run is still going) of the GEFS extended. This is a signal for a pretty nice cold shot from this range. It will change some, but worth noting. When the entire continent is cold...source regions are good. Send the STJ into that....and could be interesting.
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