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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Interesting. Yeah, this most recent winter storm occurred as we moved from 3 into 4. 3 is also a decent phase for winter storms. I need to get my hands on an MJO tendency plot for El Nino winters.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Interesting. Yeah, I have never hated 7...but the CPC temp maps imply warmth here. I have always associated it with cold during later winter as well.
  3. Carvers Gap
    I fully expect to see modeling go completely nuts within a few days. That SSW should begin to be noticeable in the troposphere shortly (in LR modeling). The first thing I usually notice is a western Atlantic ridge which creates abnormal warming along the East Coast. That seems to be a very common response, and that is actually what splits the PV at lower levels. The SOI is also way, way out of sync with the Nino - JB was talking about that recently. It is almost a Nina state which is what we don't want for Feb. If it crashes, hang on tight.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Cosgrove sounded concerned this morning re: severe wx next week and heavy rain to our south. Said we should see a storm flip the pattern back cold if it can drive to a high enough latitude. Jax’s MJO post last night is optimal. Boone is correct that warm-ups have been brief since Christmas. Jack has been money this year w the MJO.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Thanks for the update! Always good to know what is happening on the ground.
  6. Carvers Gap
    We want that MJO to boogie during the next couple of weeks. Good sign. Plots look quicker into 7 this morning on CPC, but then it dies out(which has been an error all season across modeling). Maybe we can get into phase 8 by the end of week 1....would be huge.
  7. Carvers Gap
    HRRR looks icy and MRX agrees(light icing to clarify): Isentropic lift ahead of a surface low to our west will result in increasing clouds and light precipitation this evening into the overnight hours. Confidence is increasing in freezing rain and light ice accumulation across the region, especially for the valley around 0z and later this evening. Model guidance continues to show a warm nose in the 2 to 4C range around 800-850mb which should melt any snow to freezing rain. Amounts appear light, but most areas should expect around 0.1 inch or less with localized spots up to 0.2 inch of ice accretion. We have trended towards the HRRR and colder guidance for temperatures with this system which seem to better account for the dense, cold air across the valley. This is a case where pattern recognition is important to consider. Models routinely overestimate the surface warm air in these situations and move the cold air across the valley out too quickly. With this dense, arctic airmass and snowpack, shallow cold air will be very slow to exit the valley, especially sheltered valleys across the area. This light freezing rain will likely create hazardous travel conditions overnight and into Friday morning. We have expanded the Winter Weather Advisory based on the slightly cooler forecast and additional areal coverage of light ice accretion. Colder air will advect into the region behind the cold front on Friday with some light snow possible across the area. Most locations will only see flurries or a dusting, but a few inches of snow will be possible across the higher elevations of the mountains where northwest flow and low-level moisture persists. This light snow continues through the day on Friday and tapers off to flurries and rime ice on Friday night.
  8. Carvers Gap
    For extreme counties of NE TN, the 18z GFS easily had warning criteria. I didn't pay as close attention to SW VA! I have been following this system loosely, and I need to pay better attention. LOL
  9. Carvers Gap
    Another timeframe the Weeklies (GEFS ext and Euro ext) appear to have busted on is the Jan 28 timeframe. Originally, they had a trough slipping under the ridge, and setting off 4 weeks of cold. At this point, that looks like a pretty bad miss. Now, missing the long wave pattern is acceptable at this range, but the consequences are ->instead of a 5-7 day warm-up....we have a true pattern change for warm. The length of that warm-up appears to be Jan 22 - Feb12 for now. It would not surprise me for it to last a week longer or even to be quicker to turn cold....the pattern is that fluid around Feb 10th. The MJO is ruling the roost w the NAO vanishing in a few days.
  10. Carvers Gap
    This winter reminds me a lot of 95-96. It was showing up as an analog a few weeks back. There were a couple of storms maybe 3 weeks apart(I can't remember exactly). This may have that. I agree w/ Boone that the Feb pattern could have a big dog or two as we rarely see teleconnections line-up that well. I just wish the pattern hadn't been kicked back a week.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The MJO stall is a tricky one. Generally modeling has been in error in crashing the MJO into the COD or in slowing it down. However, we did just see one loop from 2-3. I think we are going to see the MJO stall or slow in 6. The OLR stuff for that timeframe seems to hint at an extended round of rainfall over the MC. But climatology tends to win out. And for now, Nino climatology should rule the roost and kick it eastward. Most modeling supports a strong warm-up. And honestly, that is to be expect after such extreme cold. There are good signs that the pattern reloads after the 10th - maybe we can get that to move up a bit. I tend to lean closer to the 17th of Feb, but we'll see. That strat split has about a 2-3 week lag. Its affects should be seen at lower latitudes in Asia and/or NA between Feb 5-10...so timing is good. Should be some frigid stuff on LR extended modeling soon. The Euro Weeklies have the signal for cold and stormy. Normal, I would say everyone in the valley has decreasing chances as of mid-Feb...this year would be an exception in my book.
  12. Carvers Gap
    If there is ever a set-up for severe, the look is there.
  13. Carvers Gap
    There is lots of earthquake activity in that area(MC) and also the underwater volcano which went off. Probably some of both(climate and geologic). The IO is causing a lot of the MJO rotations through warmer phases. What doesn't make sense is that the warm water on the dateline is not producing more convection - that I don't understand. The PDO in my opinion the main issue in regards to troughs not liking the eastern half of the country. Is that directly related to the MJO and ENSO - probably? January will probably end-up right at normal for TRI. The last week of the month will take the BN departures and push them towards normal I think. Feb will be the tiebreaker. Pretty normal El Nino winter so far, don't you think? Warm start. Flip mid-winter, and fun and games to end it. I am actually surprised to see below zero (edit) temps here w/ El Nino. And I should note that I do feel this is a true El Nino, but there are some things which argue against it. I do think the NAO shows back up. As it is notoriously(there is that word again) difficult to predict, I wouldn't be surprised to see another episode sooner than later. And just thinking to the Weeklies bust that GaWx mentioned, it may well be that they busted because they missed the NAO episode.....anyway, just kind of thinking out loud on my part.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The current Weeklies(Euro) are showing a pretty good cold sign for mid-Feb for sure, and also the quick cold shot at the end of the month. I think the Weeklies(GEFS ex and Euro ext) missed the mid-Jan cold snap, because the MJO stalled in phase 3 and made an unexpected rotation back into 2. My main concern is an upcoming stall in 6, and there are hints of it both on MJO plots and predicted prolonged storminess over the MC. The MJO is already outpacing amplitude predictions in many ways. The one thing which could break the MJO warmth would be the ongoing strat split. It has wrecked many potential good patterns, but it can also wreck bad patterns. Also, I wouldn't be surprised to see the MJO rotation be quicker either(as opposed to a stall). Plus, shortening wavelengths during Feb create havoc. But for now, there are some really good teleconnections coming together around mid-Feb through mid-March. And then there is the old saying (could be JB) where it goes, "It snows where it wants to snow." This means that places which get snow tend to see the repeated.
  15. Carvers Gap
    We need that rain/snow line to get further south. The good thing is it looks like this is at night for E TN. Ideally, we want clear skies for a couple of hours before clouds cap the temp drop - we may not get that wish. Snow cover is helpful, but the more important piece is the layers that snow would fall. Snow gives a minor bump in our favor, but ultimately it will be the thermal profile of the incoming system which looks like a mess for lower elevations. Maybe TRI and SW VA will have better thermals. IDK. My investment in this one is pretty low. Looks like rain or a sloppiest. The 12z GFS and CMC have steadily climbed north during the past several runs which is very normal w/ a northern stream system.
  16. Carvers Gap
    And one last note, originally modeling had Jan 10-20th as being very warm and then flipped cold. Things can change. February modeling is notoriously difficult to nail down as wavelengths shorten. So, if the MJO speeds up(possible) or dodges phase 6(almost impossible at this point)...things could change. Also, if the strat split works down to the troposphere quickly(and that could happen) all bets are off. In this case, we need the strat split to wreck the warm window....and there is an outside shot that it could. For now, I think cold February forecasts in the East are probably in trouble. It is more of numerical deal as to why those would fail. The window for cold is now more like mid-Feb to mid-March - so the four week window is staggered over two months instead of being centered on Feb.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Long range update.... I am now confident that we will not dodge the warmth of the MJO warm phases. Jan22nd to roughly mid-Feb should be much above normal in terms of temps. There was some hope the NAO would hold out, but it appears that will not happen. We may get one cold shot(or two) embedded for some small windows for wintry precip. Jan30-Feb 1 would be an outside shot. So, bad news out of the way first. The current strat warm should begin to rock modeling very soon in the extended. Just watch for big red balls of fire to show-up at 500mb at higher latitudes. The strat split cold dump(if it goes into North America) should arrive right as the MJO rolls into phase 8 during mid-Feb. That means bitterly cold air could dump eastward. But beware of calls for cold prior to mid-Feb. It could happen, because the MJO could speed up a bit. I think the target for a return to cold (after this weekend) would be the end of the second week of Feb. I think the cold should last about 14-20 days at that point. I would think we would have equal(or better) chances to the timeframe we are about to exit. So, to sum up. A pattern change will quickly be under way for next week and last roughly 3 weeks beginning on Monday. That is a bit short(for a pattern change) as I generally think most patterns run 4-6 weeks. So, it is a bit of wish casting on my part for the warm pattern to depart early, but there is some model support for that shorter pattern window of three weeks - maybe more of a thaw. Likely the pattern will get can kicked a bit more and get to the 4 week window. The high amplitude MJO rotation is a big change in modeling, and not a positive one. But it is what it is. The worst case would be a stall in phase 6, and that is an outside possibility. I think a more likely trend would be from the MJO to get to phase 8 a bit early. I do think the foothills and E TN mountains will score during late Feb and early March. That potential cold pattern should be slightly East of where it is now, and the alignment of phase8/strat split/ shortening wavelengths should be money....but we are going to have to wait a bit. JB discussed some of that last night or this AM. I came to the same conclusion on my own, but also wanted to give a nod there. I am paying attention to the cold shot at the end of the month though. For now, I don't see much potential, but that could change.
  18. Carvers Gap
    For these types of systems, we want them south and then have them work back north. Roughly 80% of the time, these types of systems tend to trend north. This is a little bit of a different animal in that it has such strong cold behind it. In other words, this isn't your average clipper. I would guess the qpf is under done. I would tend to think the rain/snow line is too far south on the GFS. But...there is snow on the ground and this appears to be at night.
  19. Carvers Gap
    I think it was @GaWxthat said the GFS has a cold bias over snow pack. The GFS did a nice job of picking out extreme temps headed this way, but it does get carried away w/ snow pack. The air mass this weekend could be the bell ringer. Apple has me at -4 for Sunday - not the most scientific way to follow wx, but it does a decent job if within 24 hours or so.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Time of day being at night is a big advantage.
  21. Carvers Gap
    This comes in at night, right? Add in a snowpack, and that is at least a recipe for ice in valley floor locations.
  22. Carvers Gap
    I am not even sure that we are going to see the cold shot around Jan 30th. The Euro is more aggressive in getting out of the warm phases of the MJO, but I tend to lean GFS/GMON for MJO plots. Those are mid-February before things are fully reset. The strat split occurring now could get us in business by the first week of Feb. Model mayhem is probably about to occur. @Holston_River_Rambler, got any strat split goodies for us? I literally haven't looked at it today. I hope the folks I am reading are accurate!!!! LOL. Cause' I haven't looked.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Wind chill advisories have been posted for tonight for pretty much the entire forum area. For TRI, they expect wind chills to get to -15F. The GFS was very close to these numbers a 7-10 days ago. This probably won't be as bad as December of '22, but not sure I could tell the difference once it is that cold! This weekend likely will be colder. ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY... ...WINTER STORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED... * WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 15 below zero. * WHERE...Portions of east Tennessee and southwest Virginia. * WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, until 7 AM EST this morning. For the Wind Chill Advisory, from 5 PM this afternoon to noon EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The cold wind chills could result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Even after snow and freezing drizzle have ended, icy hazardous travel is expected today and tonight, especially on untreated roads. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.
  24. Carvers Gap
    @Daniel Boone, I am going to put the response to your MJO thoughts. I didn't realize I was in the storm thread. Also, check out those temps in Montana from the last three days! The strat split brought us this current outbreak and also likely this weekend's. We are going to need another one I think. I would suggest that the way that we have dodged warm phases in the past is with that set-up. I think winter returns(JB mentioned it today) due to that reason in part. Plus, I think the NAO will re-fire. I do think what looked like an early start to spring (March) is in serious peril if this warm-up has any duration.
  25. Carvers Gap
    When they are setting records like this in Montana, you know it is gonna get cold downstream. The are breaking OLD records with this current outbreak.
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