Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Man.
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Lights are out in E TN on that run.
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At 306, I think the wxbell algorithm just couldn't take it anymore. Rain(green color) failing into single digits.
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I think there might be one right behind it. LOL.
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GFS has dropped 3 BIG runs out of the last 6. Clipper incoming after that big storm.
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Folks, I watched The Day After Tomorrow last week. That might have been the ticket.
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That is just sick. Another monster solutions by the GFS.......wow. I don't think it is right, but I wish it was. However, modeling is trying to sniff something out in this timeframe.
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Man.
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Might lights are flickering at the thought. LOL
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That is a monster.
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That is gonna be huge. LOL. I really hate it did that over the Four Corners...ugh.
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However, it isn't completely without precedent. It could happen. Big storms happen when systems leave something back. One thing I noticed is the initial low doesn't cut to Michigan. It cut to southern Ohio this run. I suspect we get back to the 6z solution. The GFS has been really too wound-up at this range for weeks and tends to flatten things out bigly as time goes on.
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It is likely gonna be good, and it is likely gonna be wrong. That holding energy back over the Four Corners drives me crazy. Hopefully the ensemble will have some value.
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Sucks to see it make this (likely)error, because the rest of the run is gonna be meaningless.
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At 222, that might actually be very good but I fear the GFS is making its usual error of holding energy back - not a bad thing this run, but maybe not right. CMC was similar though.
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18z GFS held something back on this run....flow is much flatter. This might get it done.
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If those ensembles are anywhere close to being correct, record lows are likely going to fall. Getting a record low in mid January is tough!
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And at this range, ensembles are the way to go....lots of good options at this range. Really for the time frames that we are looking at, the deterministic model output is really just one member of the ensemble. Probably gonna be just some outright crazy runs for the next few days.
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Can you imagine the thread title options for that event? ...The EPS gets the snow mean into portions of Central Florida.
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I was about to say...when you get a robust EPS snow mean like that(and that far south), pretty good signal even if I hadn't seen any other modeling today. And if it falls in the Jan 7-20 window, it likely isn't going anywhere.
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One last post, the Euro may still get it done actually. So far, it is colder than the GFS run.
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Last post for a bit, the cutter at 204....when it is strong, the cold rushes in, and the run is insanely cold. When it is slightly weaker(CMC), the setup for a major winter storm over the Upper South is present.
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At 219, the GEFS has the snowstorm.
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Not to be outdone by the EURO AIFS...
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Nothing will top the Key West snow map by Holston, but this is mind boggling for a run. Real feels....below zero wind chills into the Panhandle. Low single digits in the land of the mouse.
