Carvers Gap

Might lights are flickering at the thought. LOL

That is a monster.

That is gonna be huge. LOL. I really hate it did that over the Four Corners...ugh.

However, it isn't completely without precedent. It could happen. Big storms happen when systems leave something back. One thing I noticed is the initial low doesn't cut to Michigan. It cut to southern Ohio this run. I suspect we get back to the 6z solution. The GFS has been really too wound-up at this range for weeks and tends to flatten things out bigly as time goes on.

It is likely gonna be good, and it is likely gonna be wrong. That holding energy back over the Four Corners drives me crazy. Hopefully the ensemble will have some value.

Sucks to see it make this (likely)error, because the rest of the run is gonna be meaningless.

At 222, that might actually be very good but I fear the GFS is making its usual error of holding energy back - not a bad thing this run, but maybe not right. CMC was similar though.

18z GFS held something back on this run....flow is much flatter. This might get it done.

If those ensembles are anywhere close to being correct, record lows are likely going to fall. Getting a record low in mid January is tough!

And at this range, ensembles are the way to go....lots of good options at this range. Really for the time frames that we are looking at, the deterministic model output is really just one member of the ensemble. Probably gonna be just some outright crazy runs for the next few days.

Can you imagine the thread title options for that event? ...The EPS gets the snow mean into portions of Central Florida.

I was about to say...when you get a robust EPS snow mean like that(and that far south), pretty good signal even if I hadn't seen any other modeling today. And if it falls in the Jan 7-20 window, it likely isn't going anywhere.

One last post, the Euro may still get it done actually. So far, it is colder than the GFS run.

Last post for a bit, the cutter at 204....when it is strong, the cold rushes in, and the run is insanely cold. When it is slightly weaker(CMC), the setup for a major winter storm over the Upper South is present.

At 219, the GEFS has the snowstorm.

Not to be outdone by the EURO AIFS...

Nothing will top the Key West snow map by Holston, but this is mind boggling for a run. Real feels....below zero wind chills into the Panhandle. Low single digits in the land of the mouse.

18F at Lake O and 23F in Miami for that run. 43 in Key West would be just two degrees off of their all time record low which was set in 1886 and also in 1981. (I had no idea that all time record lows were set when I lived in Florida. All I knew is all of the orange groves in Central Florida were hit really hard.). Crazy cold GFS run.

LOL. When it is snowing 90 miles north of Cuba, that is an exceptionally cold run. I might give up a little bit of snow if I can say that in my lifetime it snowed in Key West.

It is kind of weird, but we may need the in-between warm-ups to maybe have a shot at snow. These successive cold fronts are powerful and mean business at 12z.

Give me that 12z CMC setup all day, every day (during January). The 12z GFS is flirting with the 6z Euro AIFS.

I kid you not, the 12z GFS is cold enough to snow in Florida if it can get some precip in there.

The 12z GFS out to almost 300 is just frigid. The 12z CMC looks like it is about to go where the 6z GFS did(run will end before it gets there, but it likely would have gotten there in terms of winter storm potential).

Again, we look at that 6z GFS, but the 0z Euro was nuts. Look at this 500 sigma.

None of that is a certainty yet, but the likelihood of severe cold is increasing. The level of severity is very much a topic for debate. About every third run, we see a moderating trend when compared to previous runs. Ice is 100% what I don't want to see. The way this trough is aligned, we are on the bottom/left side of the "U" in the trough so to speak - meaning warm air advection will likely attack that area. I would rather "warm-up-and-rain" than "warm-up-a-little-and-ice." After Helene, I can pretty much say having power out for extended amounts of time is not fun, and I didn't have it even remotely as bad as many(they lost it for weeks/months...ours was just days). Our power went out during those cold shots that you mentioned...I don't know if they were rolling blackouts or the grid just couldn't handle the demand - I never really knew the cause.