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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. OP Euro wants to make sure we are good and soaked :
  2. A little (always successful ) "just in time" wintry action at the end of the hi reses at 18z
  3. In terms of just having some cold around the TN Valley (which is I guess where we are at this point), the Euro has some light snow over KY in the wee hours of Wed morning.
  4. One thing I do worry about worry about with the MJO progression is that as it works its way east, it gets shunted south of the equator, and the 0z GFS shows jus that: That's not to say that the GFS is right, but it is something we've seen before and the kiss of death would be for it to spawn a TC in the southern hemisphere that rolls SE. Here are the EPS members takes on how this could unfold through Dec 19: ] Def does seem like the wave will make and attempt to push east, but exactly how strong it is and how far it gets remain to be seen.
  5. Today felt like a January thaw after the past few weeks. It just feels weird to have the January thaw feeling/ warm breeze before Christmas. Gut feeling is that this is going to flip hard later in Dec. I know, I'll go ahead and do it myself:
  6. Overnight Euro starting to get ye olden rainy GFS look: Let's consider the OP's Norther American look at the end of its run: Obviously not a good look, but how many good looks have we seen at 240 hours that dissolve within even 7 days? Even if this does happen, (climatologically more likely than a good look for us) notice the connection between the SE ridge and ridging over Baffin Bay. Carvers, I think, remembers that look from 2018. Might could be some warming up yonder: now a little bit lower at 50mb: To me, even though the temp anomalies are close to stacked up, they don't quite sync up, so there is some instability (TBH not sure if that is the right word for anything that high up) I think there's some interesting stuff happening in the strat, but not only do we have to get to mid December to see how it plays out up there, but then we have to wait to see how and if it trickles down to the troposphere. GFS is not as enthused as the Euro for the temp anomalies.
  7. The GFS speculates that any unfortunate aridity shall soon come to an end with our normal La Nina El Nino Winter monsoon pattern. Just think what surpluses of rain John could reach between today and April?!?! Trend gif of the last approx. 16 runs of the GFS total precip EPS members (admittedly only one run) seem a bit drier: But you know, if the we do actually get into the floody pattern that we all know and love, soon janetjanet will pay us a visit or two.
  8. Found a fun new tool this AM: https://re.ssec.wisc.edu/?products=MIMICTPW2.100&center=11.178401873711785,-157.14843750000003&zoom=2&width=1316&height=780&basemap=bluemarble&labels=line&view=leaflet&timeproduct=MIMICTPW2&timespan=-24t&animationspeed=100&animate=true
  9. For those interested in the strat visuals: GFS 50 mb heights and then 10 mb temps: Same for the Euro:
  10. I don't quite feel like this winter has, as Carvers would say, "shown its hand" yet. To be fair, it is November 24 though. There just isn't anything that has jumped out to me as a death knell or a reason to be very excited. There have been things that have looked horrible in the medium to long range (Pac configuration) or awesome, (-NAO), but neither has turned out to be a deal breaker or maker in the short range. Currently, both OP models have some things of interest in the medium to long range: Euro Pac jet looks interesting: 500 mb on GFS looks interesting in the AO region: There are some interesting things on the GFS's OP longish range (10 -15 day) tropical forecast that are reflected on some EPS members, but not sure how much stock to put in them at this time. No Isotherm outlook yet either. He suggested in his critique of his own work that he would have benefited from waiting until the end of November last year, so maybe that's what he is doing.
  11. @Blue Moon can we get some Lake effect pictures to hold us over until the AMO flips? Pretty Please??
  12. Incontestable proof, proof I say, that EPS Member 8 loves us and wants us to be happy (days 13 - 15 anyway):
  13. For one of the few times I can remember, the RMM plots looks pretty similar between the operational GFS and Euro: Euro RMM: GFS RMM: GEFS RMM: In terms of atmospheric convection, there seems to be a pretty good spread all across the W Pac and Maritime Continent: Western Pac had petered out a bit for a couple of days (at least that's how it seemed to me), but looks sorta healthy again. Michael Ventrice has a cool new way to visualize the way tropical convection helps modulate the Pac jet: source: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/maps/mjo/global_analyses.html You can watch the jet extend as the VP200 anomalies drift east. To me, it looks like the MJO wave is trying to creep towards the western Pac, but weakening a bit as it does so. Last but not least we have the Paul Roundy Waves page: source: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogs.html I think that animation is showing the heights at 300mb as they might evolve through mid December, given similar situations in the tropics (but I may be totally misusing or misinterpreting that data and animation). If someone has a better read on the Roundy data, please let me know so I can use it in a better way.
  14. ________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________ I'm stealing the below observation from someone on Twitter yesterday, but no matter what happens with the storm early next week it will be interesting to see how that helps develop (or hurts) any sort of NAO block after next week. 0z GFS pumps up the heights , but then scootches it all out to the east. If that were to roll back west, it could create some interesting scenarios: IMO, the Pac jet is partly why that scootches on east, so if I were betting, I would go with the scootch option right now, but the atmosphere is chaotic, so if the trajectory of the Pac jet is slightly different, I guess it could maybe help roll it back west. It's also interesting that there seems to be a tendency for storms to want to develop along the east coast and try to pump up those heights: [sorry for the different parameter, but weathermodels doesn't have PVU for the Euro and I used the Control since I can get "sort of" an operational run for the ECMWF past 240 hours. ] Someone mentioned in the general weather sub forum, while they were talking about the idea of a 1981-82 analogue, that 1981's Dec had a honking -NAO and a -PNA. I suppose that is one possible iteration if these storm keep trying to scoop up positive heights and build them over Greenland.
  15. Euro and GFS gave us a nice thanksgiving week present overnight. 0z Euro 6z GFS: At this much of a time remove, probably not a lot to get excited about, but there were a couple ensemble hits later in Thanksgiving week. MJO convection looks pretty dispersed to me: Looks like the RMMs have it in the COD. I could be wishcasting, but I don't think I remember seeing that much convection in the equatorial region of the N. hemisphere that far east, on the Himawari 8 satellite.
  16. I was able to get a few photos at Frozen Head yesterday before the end o' the leaves:
  17. Emory River at Oakdale yesterday evening: Fine November evening. You could feel the air blowing into the canyon and hitting the cliffs that had been warmed by the sun all day. The temp of the water and on the water was in the 50s, but every once in a while you would get a breeze that had hit those warm cliffs and it felt spectacular. Even caught exactly one smallmouth, lol.
  18. Some nice E TN snowfall bitterness in the comments on that post too, lol!
  19. Not here, sadly. There does seem to be a touch of hoarfrost on a spruce tree atop Beech Mt.
  20. I think the low clouds got me here. We've leveled off in the mid to upper 30s this AM.
  21. True. I’d say tonight will hit my area pretty hard. Already in the low 40s here.
  22. Leaves are pretty prime here in Morgan County right now. Even still quite a bit of rusted green just on the verge of turning in Frozen Head State Park.
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