Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Some pics from the recent rainforest like conditions: Big South (Muddy) Fork, at Angel Falls rapid: For your trout folks, there were a bunch of big trout just below the rapids popping on some fly I couldn't see Frozen Head:
  2. Got a time lapse of the rotation in the atmosphere:
  3. Def some nice shear on satellite for the tornado warning in my neck of the woods:
  4. A good old fashioned mini NAMing for Ye Olden Favoured eastern areas:
  5. The Big South Fork’s leatherwood Ford gauge is at 40 feet. I’m going to head up toward the Obed to see what the rivers look like up that way, if I can get there.
  6. Nice cloud pic posted by a tavern in downtown Carthage: https://www.facebook.com/ebelstavern/photos/a.450163365365397/1352014735180251/
  7. It's warned now with 1.5" hail: The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Central Morgan County in east Tennessee... * Until 845 AM EDT. * At 758 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Fairfield Glade, or 11 miles northeast of Crossville, moving northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. * Locations impacted include... Wartburg, Sunbright, High Point, Frozen Head State Park, Deerlodge and Rugby State Park.
  8. Well, I see the NWS Special weather statement now, looks like just a strong storm with Penny - Nickle sized hail. Headed for me though, so we'll see what I get here.
  9. It's not showing up on the MRX scan, but that area is a weird one for radar, since it is about half way between OHX and MRX.
  10. I may just be seeing things, but it almost looks like the storm heading towards Cumberland County has a couplet:
  11. The Euro is in on it, lol: I wonder if this is the reality of the long anticipated storm I posted in banter a couple of weeks ago: yeah it's few days late, but these things often get pushed back. Besides, I'm ready for a couple weeks off of severe wx now.
  12. Yeah, was just about to post the image windspeed posted, no clear velocity couplets on the cells yet, but some of them are starting to hook.
  13. Mesoscale Discussion 0257 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Areas affected...far northern Mississippi into Middle Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 251929Z - 252130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat of severe storms including tornadoes will increase by late afternoon into Middle Tennessee and persist through the evening. A watch may be issued by 21Z. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis currently shows a warm front into far southwestern TN extending east/southeast into northern AL. Meanwhile, another warm front extended from the developing surface low from southern IL into central KY. In between these two fronts, gradual warming is taking place, with temperatures now into the low 70s F. MUCAPE currently remains below 1000 J/kg as a result of dewpoints near 60 F. Strengthening 850 mb winds out of the southwest later today should aid moisture advection out of MS into Middle TN, with areas of heating helping to destabilize as well. Shear will become increasingly favorable for tornadic supercells in the 21-03Z time frame, and a few tornadoes are anticipated as the mid 60s F dewpoints arrive later today. With the more unstable air in place, effective SRH may reach 400-500 m2/s2. ..Jewell/Hart.. 03/25/2021
  14. MRX AM update: Wanted to talk about the environment expected this afternoon and evening. The main mid/upper lvl trough continues to dominate much of the CONUS this morning with the main shortwave showing up clearly in moisture channels. This shortwave and associated speed max will translate east as this shortwave digs into the MS river valley. Impressive kinematics will overspread much of the southeast this afternoon with 80-100 kt mid level winds. An associated low level jet is expected to develop late this morning peaking near 60-70 knots. This LLJ is already starting to be seen in the HTX Vad wind profile with strengthening flow just above 4kft. From a more mesoscale picture, a warm front is currently just to our south and west generally from northern MS through northern AL and into central GA. Plenty of showers continue to overspread along and north of this boundary. MUCAPE increases just south of this boundary where an increase in lightning activity can be seen. This front will continue its northerly motion thorugh the morning and into the afternoon. All available hi-res guidance suggests showers and embedded thunderstorms will increase in areal coverage through the morning and afternoon. While this normally will keep boundary layer instability on the lower side, I think the impressive LLJ will aid in advection and should overcome this. Also, guidance is pointing at some clearing taking place late this afternoon. If some sun can come out then this heating could encourage further increases in instability. The shear/CAPE parameter space is concerning to say the least. Deep layer shear will only increase by the afternoon and into the evening hours. 0-0.5km/0-1km/0-3km shear near 35/45/70 knots respectively suggest that the environment will be more than conducive for rotating updrafts today. SRH between 400-600m2/s2 leading to large looping hodographs combined with >300j/kg of MLCAPE suggests tornado potential increases late this afternoon and into the early evening for the southern valley and portions of the Cumberland Plateau. The threat of long-tracked supercellular structures and long-track tornadoes are also possible given the low LCL`s, 0-3km CAPE, and impressive near surface shear. Again this window seems to be from 00z-03z. HREF and HRRR continue to show several updraft helicity tracks through the area further increasing confidence of the above. Further severe weather hazards will be damaging winds and large hail with any of these supercell structures or any semi-linear convective structures.
  15. MRX seems to think the real question is surface instability that any discrete cells could take advantage of. Is that determined by just sunshine warming the boundary layer? They also mention a 850 warm layer limiting instability. So my take is that for Cumberland plateau and areas east a lot depends on how quickly the atmo recovers after the AM warm front? Clouds and rain = more stability and more likely that everything consolidates into a line before it gets here?
  16. If nothing else, this one does not have the upper low getting shunted east like last week, but racing off to the lakes. IMO that is a stronger signal for the possibility (not guarantee) of some of the more unstable atmo. making into east TN and plateau areas.
  17. And another one. These are fun little storms that keep training over my house lol.
  18. Got some even larger hail with another storm that just rolled through. Still pea-sized, but the hail with this one was much more intense than the last storm that rolled through:
  19. Getting some very small hail with this line that is moving through Morgan county.
  20. Getting some sunshine here in Morgan County, now.
  21. This chaser is almost on the Selma/ Autauga county tornado: https://livestormchasing.com/chasers/brett.adair
  22. Warned storm near Selma looks rough on radar: