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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Seeing some readings on Wunderground this AM in the 20s on the plateau. A 27 near Obed. I live near the Mossy Grove KTNOAKDA6 station and we're close to freezing at 35.
  2. Downright wintery feel this AM at Frozen Head, after the warmth. 47 in the parking lot and probably a few degrees cooler as I went up 1000 or so feet. Raining up there and though I'm sure it was still waaaayyyy up there, the rain/snow line at least felt close.
  3. For the past few years the apathy for Vol football hasn't set in until November. Don't get me wrong, I'll still watch, but I think GA State went ahead and dashed all hope, lol.
  4. Strangely enough I'm a little more optimistic about some sort of pattern change after yesterday. The first fully cloudy day in a while for my area, with at least a minuscule amount of rain at the end of it. Maybe these systems are just digging a little more as the seasons change but despite how bad the ensembles have looked and continue to look, yesterday was a real change even if only a small one. In terms of the long range, I feel like the past couple of weeks were a lot like last winter in that the long range kept looking like a flip, but the long awaited Pacific pattern set up just a little too far west to get a trough here. Now looks like another of these little fronts swinging through later in the week. EPS and GEFS are at least having some members change things up after next week, since they show the ridge shifting west, but at 180+ hours could also just be random dispersion of so many members. I will say western Canada looks like it will get some snow from the big trough digging out that way. And hey maybe the EPS MSLP analysis is on to something developing a high up that way. Not sure if it is too early in the season to look at something like that, but even a little break would be nice:
  5. A nice shower as I headed from Harriman up toward Morgan County. I had almost forgotten what a cloudy day looked like, lol. Some storms towards Nashville, hopefully we can get a better shower this evening too!
  6. Here in Knoxville WBIR has been showing records possibly falling Thursday - the end of the 7 day forecast. I only mention WBIR because I can't remember seeing so many days on the 7 day with records listed next to the highs. We'll see if my new location in southern MoCo can help me get a quick rain shower this PM. Just south/ sw of Frozen head mts, so hopefully I can get a small upslope enhancement.
  7. Visiting a friend in North Knoxville yesterday and heard a report of a very small brush fire. Not sure of the specific location, but would likely have been near Sharp's Ridge.
  8. At least a little relief in regards to temps for eastern areas (hopefully, though MRX in the afternoon disco basically said still above normal) with backdoor cool front Struggling convection seen from Lone Mountain in Morgan county looking south towards the Great Valley, as the front wriggled through: Some drier air was working in toward the top of the mountain, but humidity still laying in the valley as I descended.
  9. Finally almost moved into the new house and starting to get time to get back into model roulette. Looks nasty for a bit (glad I'm moving up 500 feet in elevation in southern Morgan county) and I don't have much to add to what others have said, other than a silly gif: Thoughts on UT Chatt? 0-3? Hopefully we can take care of that game at least, lol.
  10. Really nice storm this PM her in Knoxville. Temp dropped from 95 to around 70 in half an hour! Even got a severe warning on it. I was on 75N when it pulsed up and the interstate turned into a river for a bit.
  11. @Carvers Gap was just up your way a couple of days ago. Hate that I missed that. MRX radar has been down too, which has put a cap on my usual radar watching. Been trying to buy a house this month and got summoned for jury duty for a horrible trial in Knox. Fortunately dismissed from the jury, but been a crazy month + for me. Soooooooo happy that the front made its way through E TN though. Still hot, but the dew points are primo today!
  12. That cell definitely looks stout on satellite: The setup is interesting to me since there seem to be 2 lines of more intense convection with one? MCS (colder cloud tops and radar are how I'm distinguishing that) that seem to merge over the OH river on the KY and IL border. I've seen this before with two distinct bows and a gap in the middle and always wondered what the cause for that was.
  13. This sucker is hauling it. 1 - 2 hours ahead of HRRR. Always liked MCSs as long as they don't have a ton of wind. As MRX mentioned, HRRR has been more consistent with at least timing, while other models like NAM and RGEM have already lost it entirely. HRRR gives the northern limb a boost as it swings through KY and TN, will be interesting to see if, regardless of timing, this predicted aspect of it develops. Radar looks auspicious for that, as of now.
  14. This was all that was left of the rotation over Clinton in the radar loop above, when it moved over Knoxville, just north of my area (in a one minute time lapse): Radar loop at the same time:
  15. The cell in Knox now has a warning too. Decent hook on radar and each of the three cells behind the Knox county one look like they may have a little hook on radar too:
  16. Tornado warning in Hancock County and a couplet just north of Knoxville:
  17. Not sure what is going on, but there is a cell that has just been dumping over Bledsoe county for a while: If radar estimates are correct that's 7 inches in around 3.5 hours.
  18. https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-upgrades-us-global-weather-forecast-model?fbclid=IwAR2v_b5IdcdmBhx8MfnlOtMLFeOLvtUc47yV7lcg2ujewIhk_xi1JHqc49c FV3 is live.