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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think the kicker over the lakes is just too much and will swooshle it out to sea unfortunately.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here ye go:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    happy to, which wrf though
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just a random shower thought: This whole vort mess that's tangled up and been a pain for models.... is there a road where some of this mess turns into a 50/50 and suppresses a wave past.... let's say 200 hours or so?
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Over on southernwx they’re posting the Ukie. It would not be a bad look for the late weekend system at this range.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Do we need to issue a road brine watch for the some of our areas?
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    I prefer 8->1/2/3 for the MJO, but's just me. I think tropical forcing has the best influence when it goes through 8 and makes a full tour through 1/2/3. I don't think we've seen it do that in a looonngg time. Looks to me like it is about to blow its load in the west Pac and crash again.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    The thing that is particularly frustrating about this weekend, is that there was a run (12z Friday, 1/9, I think) where all 3 globals showed a pretty similar system. If it had just been one model, meh.... but all three?
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    RGEM is even spinning up a low in Louisiana in its la la range. as far as I can tell it is the only model with that feature: looped to see the spin:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Speculation post: If patterns run in cycles, it's been almost exactly 60 days since we had an anomalous shortwave dropdown over the southern Apps and drop some early season snowfall. 11/11/25: Jan 15 2026 Overall NA pattern isn't quite the same, but thus the: #speculative Would be interesting if we got another rerun of this in early March.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    The Euro is definitely pulling on some stj moisture post 220 hrs or so.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just based on the H5 vort and relative humidity maps it might be trying for something 200 hrs or so.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    But let's also be fair to the GFS, the Euro (on left) also has some weird tropical critter in Pac, but the shortwave mess just ins't oriented in a way to draw from it.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Based on surface pressure maps from the Euro, I'm guessing it's a big old nope on the second system
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Carvers Gap Kingsport looks like it is about to get a decent squall.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Flurries IMBY as of now. Probably means John has an inch.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some of the snow showers dropping out of KY have Special weather Statements:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Precip panels have finally populated:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    The Euro still has substantial differences from the GFS I tried to get he loops as close as I could time stamp wise, but it still seems they are out of sync after a few frames.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    I hope the metal snowman is still up.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    At least the 6z Euro has a massive clipper dropping in late in its run Overnight ensembles still have both windows. I'm using the charts for TRI since both systems have looked better for eastern areas:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    No thunder overnight. Not a good sign.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was just thinking that we are entering the period where models sometimes lose systems or change them in some way only to come back 72 hours out or so. Something to do with wonky stakeouts data sometimes in the polar/ N. pac regions maybe? I also want to add that I’m sorry for what your going through Powell
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Does anyone know how to access ensemble H5 vort panels? Tomer Burg used to have that one Polarwx (I think), but can't find those particular panels any longer.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Trend on the EPS is for more vorticity in the base of the trough: Would should be bale to have the EPS panels to go along with the GFS member panels covering the event by 18 or 0z tonight.
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