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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler
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Yeah, speaking of High Knob, VA and Black Mt, KY from my obs post...... 6z RGEM
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I would almost guarantee that will have at least a little front end thump of sleet and snow for some spots. Now it may not be a big thump since it doesn't look like it has too much .qpf, but I've seen this little show a few times, after snow and cold is in place.
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Official Strat warming criteria are fairly specific, but insofar as temps are concerned it looks pretty good at the end of the GEFS run Euro has basically the same thing, but a bit slower evolution. I'd show the EPS, but weatherbell only has strat maps for the GEFS
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Strat warming looks more likely than not now. 40/70 seems to think it might impact high latitude blocking quicker than average since we already have a base state this winter predisposed to that. ensemble mean at day 10:
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Noticed something else that I've heard about, but never seen here, and that is the waves of subsidence and lift associated with a strong upper low. Just like the ocean, if you have a wave, you have a peak and a trough. Same thing here (I think) seen in the cold cloud tops. Also John has the best lift right now, because why not, lol
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1-30/2-1-26 Arctic Blast, ULL Snow Event
Holston_River_Rambler replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
One other thing that has been interesting to me looking through the SPC meso page, is this ribbon of deep DGZ around the stretched out vorticity: I think there is a 3000' thick DGZ layer back in Kansas. EDIT: Oh wow, that's not in feet, it's in meters. So that's almost 10000 feet thick- 782 replies
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1-30/2-1-26 Arctic Blast, ULL Snow Event
Holston_River_Rambler replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
The main cold pool is still a ways off: Still quite a bit of dynamics associated with it yet to swing through: The above isn't exactly the same, but is kind of a real time analysis of the vort. maps I and others post (example): Noticed a bit of frontogenesis too, on the SPC mesoscale page over East TN:- 782 replies
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1-30/2-1-26 Arctic Blast, ULL Snow Event
Holston_River_Rambler replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
- 782 replies
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- extreme cold
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