Holston_River_Rambler

I think we warmed up for a while from around just after Christmas through mid January. Torch weenies kept predicting a big torch, but it was just average or a little abv. average.

Looking at the tropical West Pacific this am and noticed we just have a tropical storm hitting the Philippines in February with a less organized twin storm over western Australia's coast. This sort of set up seems to associated with westerly wind bursts and just a quick search shows that it tends to happen in years with El Ninos that develop in the late summer and fall (2015/ 2023). Last few days of satellite: Looks like we art going to do early Jan all over again, at least wrt tropical forcing: GEFS still likes a decent strat. disruption around Valentines Day: A true sudden stratosperic warming event (SSWE) has to have a wind reversal (blue lines drop below 0): EPS (above) isn't as enthused as it has been recently, even though the Euro OP still shows some significant warming: Any potential impacts, if we get a SSWE at some point this month, would likely be at least a couple of weeks minimum, after the event.

WBIR is reporting sidewalks covered with snow in sunbright. Just supercooled rain and occasional sleet here 20 minutes south.

As far as I can tell, it looks like everyone has gotten above freezing, so at least no ice to deal with this evening.

Even got a few lightning strikes on the front end:

Zoomed in for detail:

Occasionally, some really bright returns on radar across middle TN along the leading edge as the precip moves in. Would almost guarantee a burst of sleet.

Clouds moving in already, so not sure how much warming we can swing.

latest HRRR tossing out some ZR for afternoon evening, in east TN locations in the freezer this AM: Manages to squeeze out 0.30" in east Knox county:

I usually just try for whatever site I'm on, COD (College of Du Page), Pivotal, or Tropical tidbits. If I can't get it on there, it's usually not worth it for me.

3D SPV maps started updating again. Below just for imagery purposes, but it still looks like there will at minimum be a major disruption to the SPV around or just before Valentines day:

Sorry I'm just now seeing the map this am. I still have more than that after a day of sunshine, compaction, and sublimation lol

Got a quick gif of some lake effect clouds/ fog coming off Cherokee and Douglas Lakes overnight. I rock it back and forth to hopefully make it easier to see.

I see a -15 between Jonesborough and Johnson City: Shady Valley looks like the winner: I know the Wunderground map isn't the be all, end all, but I could only find a couple of places on that network, on the whole planet (in rural Quebec), that were colder this AM.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=ohiorivervalley-02-48-1

Yeah, speaking of High Knob, VA and Black Mt, KY from my obs post...... 6z RGEM

A few satellite items of interest this morning: main gif: Some downsloping evident: Some Cumberland lake effect clouds or snow: The old snow bird pattern:

I would almost guarantee that will have at least a little front end thump of sleet and snow for some spots. Now it may not be a big thump since it doesn't look like it has too much .qpf, but I've seen this little show a few times, after snow and cold is in place.

Let's go for some moon snow pics tonight if y'all can get 'em. I'll start: 3 second exposure: no extra exposure:

Heaviest snow since last night for me, now that the winds have shifted to the NNW.

@GBOVolz

Just had a visit from a little forest friend:

Official Strat warming criteria are fairly specific, but insofar as temps are concerned it looks pretty good at the end of the GEFS run Euro has basically the same thing, but a bit slower evolution. I'd show the EPS, but weatherbell only has strat maps for the GEFS

Strat warming looks more likely than not now. 40/70 seems to think it might impact high latitude blocking quicker than average since we already have a base state this winter predisposed to that. ensemble mean at day 10:

Lake Effect clouds (can't tell about any snow) from Kentucky Lake