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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    It was pretty vague but also pretty enticing. it looked “wild.” And was a “monster.” no idea what that means specifically, and especially for east TN, but it does at least sound like in shifted in someway
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    After what Bounycorn said on southernwx I think we’re all just sitting back and waiting for it lol.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like Google Weathernext v2.78665 pretty well held with the upper low bringing snow, but that's about it.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    New weather model/ data site: https://aguacerowx.com/app/
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    And if you want a good snow in East TN, that is exactly how you want it.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z Euro ticked back west a bit, but like Tellico, I'm now in the "let's see how hi res models handle this" camp
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    We got NAM'd!
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Visible satellite:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yo, Kingsport people, especially west Kingsport/ anyone in Hawkins county y'all seeing any Cherokee Lake effect snow? I've got some Watts Bar Lake effect snow here (posted in general obs) and a band from Cherokee aimed at KPT is showing up on satellite. I'll move this post later this AM. But thought more people would see it here.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some nice dendrites: https://i.imgur.com/WFmqpvQ.mp4
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Getting some Lake effect flurries off of Watts Bar this AM. Wondering if anyone else upwind is seeing anything. Looks like something similar off of Cherokee aimed at West Kingsport
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    There was a time late last week when the EPS actually liked the 4-6th window better than this weekend.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just as an example, look at this sigma anomaly (standard deviation from the norm).
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Probably what I'd go with too for now if I had to make and official forecast for 5-7 days out. As modeled, this is a highly anomalous system with extremely high end potential for someone in the eastern US. Highly anomalous things are just that, very uncommon. N. stream has been favoring cold and dry and at this range, so I'd go with the trend and only start to introduce some pops (20%) tomorrow if this holds.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think its possible, but how likely it is, that's another question.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    GFS from 1/23 is probably the high end of what could happen at this point with some ticks west: Please note before you look below, this is from 0z GFS 1/23, not a more recent run
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here are the CIPS H5 analogs: I think it looks at the GFS's forecast and populates analogs from that. All CIPS has is the GFS as a base layer for comparison unfortunately.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Well nevermind, that wasn't as hard to find as I thought:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    I can never remember how to get to the CPC site for that. I'll try to figure it out again because I keep meaning to.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    SOI had a big drop recently after be positive for most of the past month Some say that portends a southern stream storm in 2-3 weeks, others are skeptical. Good convection near the dateline too: Strat still looks to get split in early to mid Feb.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Getting what I call Ridley Scott snow this morning. High ration powder just floating around like atmospheric fiberglas in a Ridley Scot film.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    csnavy, a met in the MA forum, had a good/ funny approach for managing expectations regarding models each day this week: In other words, if we are in the bullseye on Friday, we should feel free to do whatever Vince is doing above.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yep, I agree with you and Chattownsnow. Can something this wound up actually get this far south?
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    This is the worry.
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