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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler
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January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread
Holston_River_Rambler replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
What the Euro is spitting out is extremely anomalous. I don't think I've seen a cutoff with this wrapped up at our latitude since I've been watching weather...let's say...enthusiastically enough to participate. Some observations though: Only 30+ hours later the situation has chnanged a lot: what is now essentially a TPV vort says: "TPV eat shortwaves!!! YUM!!!!!" But look at this, hour 126: That's so wild I'm not really sure what options are on the table. -
January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread
Holston_River_Rambler replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
I was typing all that mess out when tnweathernut responded, so I will get that gif too: 500 mb trend N. America Run to run changes: -
January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread
Holston_River_Rambler replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Remember, as a weather weenie, the most important thing you can do is to not talk to people about this at all, or as little as possible. "But they know I'm love weather," you might say! If they ask, you don't have to lie, you can look grumpy and say "Well, you saw what happened with the last one, didn't you??" Yes, I know how that makes me sound and yes I am that superstitious about snow. There is some method to this. East TN is a hard place to forecast for and as we saw, you do not want to be in the bullseye 4-5 days out. Using the Holston deflection method, it is acceptable to say to loved ones and friends when they ask "Is is going to snow?" "Yeah........... in North Carolina and Virginia." And to make this less weird, here are some gifs: -
January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread
Holston_River_Rambler replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Excellent! this was what I had seen so I feel a little bad I didn’t double check on which level you had to pay for https://imgur.com/a/xKneP92 -
January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread
Holston_River_Rambler replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
I’ll get the hobby level this Wednesday (payday) and I guess we’ll see. -
January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread
Holston_River_Rambler replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Thats actually a good question. I’ve seen griteater post it on southernwx, and assumed it was available, but it could be only in the commercial level. -
January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread
Holston_River_Rambler replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
We dare. -
January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread
Holston_River_Rambler replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
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Hot dang, there's some non upslope CAA stuff holding together in radar... Higher res local imagery:
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January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread
Holston_River_Rambler replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
The WesatherNext2 has it too, at about the same amount of suppression. -
January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread
Holston_River_Rambler replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
18z Euro has found the upcoming weekend system again: Euro AI has it too: -
I'm getting some super fine pixie dust snow right now.
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North wind picking up here in southern Morgan county. Front has arrived at the edge of the plateau. Most of my ice is gone from power lines and trees thankfully
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January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread
Holston_River_Rambler replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Storm vista models. 20 bucks a month for the usually models too, but they generally populate model frames the quickest. Not quick enough to be worth 20 a month on top of weatherbell usually. I might do it next month for one month to see how weathernext does though. -
January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread
Holston_River_Rambler replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, I wish there was a way to get its data outside of Storm Vista. -
HRRR seems to be playing catch up with temps. NAM 3km seems to be doing better
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Looks like the HRRR and NAM 3km put the front onto the plateau between 3 and 4pm eastern time.
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Yeah it will be NW of probably even extreme NW TN. Just pointing it out since I already had made the image.
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For those of you out west, the end looks like it is approaching the Mississippi:
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Power has returned to MBY! Hopefully other areas are as quick as possible.
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This morning I found a temp of 13 in Union City and a 61 in Townsend. Nearly a 50 degree spread across the state.
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I like how they give you a pleasant and comforting image with their outage map: Better have another fireball shot, it's the only responsible thing to do.
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