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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Lots of lightning to my north. Wind echoing down from the mountains nearby.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    I just saw a 142 mph from MRX
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Northern cell (Fentress) is going to get pretty close to Sunbright. If I had to pick a location I’d say a bit south of the main town.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    That one is on a trajectory closer to my location, joy.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    It’s getting close to being on some pretty flat land on that part of the plateau. If it survives to southern Fentress county it’ll probably make it to the Frozen Head area.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Warned cell just south of Gainesboro:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Best save that one too: Euro: Here are the ensemble means: I don't think everybody sees a widespread 8+ inches like the GFS shows, but there is convective precip involved and for localized areas, if everything lines up, I don't think 10" of rain is impossible. I wish I could find those atmospheric river models with specific parameters they use for California and the Pac NW. There's def. a eastern Pac connection.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Nasty OP GFS run for rain and cloudy weather. Front finally pushed south of us Sat and Sun 15 - 16 and wave tries to bring us some snow. Pretty much an on and off firehose until then.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    GFS just janet janeted East TN pretty good.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think me and Carver were thinking along the same lines, lol.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think it is also important to acknowledge that we are smack in the middle of a the worst of what the MJO can do right now. Straight up 5/6. It does seem to want to continue east though. I think the fact that it didn't just sit, centered over Java is one reason the SSWE/ split has pooped out. Not sure that I care too much about that, since so much can go wrong with SSWEs. Seems pretty similar to last time. MJO gets hung up in the area above, then slowly starts to amble eastward. I don't have the the Euro verification handym but at least the GFS has been biased to a weaker pass: I was actually thinking it might be slower than it, so I guess that's a positive.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    janet janet
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z AIFS looks like it is coming back south to be like the GFS/ CMC.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here are the 0z EPS and 6z GEFS members: GEFS: EPS:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    That was an epic run, lol. Backed off at 6z, but still has the same players. Interestingly it seems to have started to back the progression of the AIFS from 24 hours ago and now 0z, if not the details: Front slides in around this Wed. Pushes through over the weekend after a few impulses ride it then this: 24 hour qpf panels:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Thundersnow reports in Seattle.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Pretty fun to watch the color flip from the equatorial perspective:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    GFS just threw out a new one at 12z: That's a double warming, first from east Asia and the then the Atlantic. I've never seen a model throw a double out. Just one OP run, but I guess that's a possibility on the table now too lol.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    0z AIFS looks good again as well. Might poke around ensemble member charts later.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Intense thunder and lightning overnight. Is there a folklore sign for patches of snow, bugs out, and intense thunder and vivid lightning? Please don't reply SPRING, lol.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro, GFS, and GEFS all have a strat split starting between 10 - 12 days now. The only reason I don't list the EPS on there is I don't see it on weatherbell. It looks like the sort of split that if it happens, will take 3 weeks to bring the cold here. The only caveat I can think of is that we have not had one of these in the sort of base state we've had this winter, so it may have impacts sooner, if it happens. Probably not much more speculation is worthit right now, until we see if it starts to look more likely to happen.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Something to ponder this AM on this Jan 30. I would honestly be a little concerned if I lived in a sheltered valley on the plateau that was in the mid twenties right now as the precip moves in with clouds overhead. A little ice goes a log way
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z. AIFS, one potential out of many:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    The Emory was still frozen over at Harriman on Monday. Still quite a bit of ice on Bitter Creek next to Hwy 27 in southern Morgan county.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    I’d love to be able to fly a drone up to about 4000 feet right now to see what the profile looks like. I’m surprised that I’m down to 38-40 degrees around my neighborhood.
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