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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    This is as interested in this storm as I have been in like 48 hours lol.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    That's what I'm trying to say. The trajectory of the winds isn't through the gaps where the rives cut, it's directly over ridges in locations that are often affected by mountain wave events, so I don't think its that, or cold air leaking through the river gaps. I'm wondering if there is some physical process where the relative warming can be coupled with a relative cooling OR somehow the trajectory of the winds transports air that is so relatively cold that that even with relative adiabatic warming it still cools valley areas.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think Carver's is right about it being related to the mountain wave. That trajectory is too spot on. Is there some physical process where by air can cool near to a relatively warming downslope flow?
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    This is what we've come to for this system lol, it's like an inverse Bays Mountain band situation: Purple arrows are wind trajectory modeled and blue lines are the approximate flow of the two rivers. Black circles are where the rivers come out of the mountains.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    After looking at the NAM temps above, that was my first thought. The air is warming as it moves away from the foothills and into the valley of the 81 corridor so that makes some sense. You know how they do those air parcel tests to see where airmasses come from? It'd be really interesting to see where the air that is moved by the mountain wave events originates and what happens to it as it accelerates over the mountains and descends into the East TN valley. This seems like a very unusual situation. Usually when we have mountain wave events it seems like we have a strong cutter heading west and there isn't really any concern for cold air except on the backside of the system.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    But in this case wouldn't it be colder air coming across @Carvers Gap since the map @fountainguy97 showed shows fingers of freezing rain? The 3km NAM shows a little bit of this, but strangely enough it does appear to be cutting across the mountains to me and not in the valleys:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    You also have two river valleys that cut through the mountains that the model is seeing and trying to leak some of North Carolina's CAD, French Broad and Nolichucky. Or at least I think that's a possibility
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Can't argue with that. Maybe there will be the illusive Bays Mt lake valley CAD?
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ideal for MBY
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think the 18z NAM is colder west TN and warmer East TN
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Fun little sounding in Alabama as it cranks north:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAM is going to straight up cut a mslp to Bloomington to see the Natty Champs.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    This is the sort of frame I'm going by. It';s not much but everything seems shifted a hair north:
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ends the icy pain for some by Sun 4am
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    No worries. I've done the same thing.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Higher qpf I think this run and. another jog north
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    WxBell at hr 60:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like it has quite a bit from the weatherbell maps
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Guess it's time to go back to tropical convection and strat observing. SOI dropped today for the first time in a long time. Sometimes you'll see people talk about SOI drops and storms with a lot of precip. across the southern tier of the US, but the current one managed it with a pretty positive Nina like SOI for the past month. Anyway: Split at 10mb: GFS has it too:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    I am very glad I don't live in one of the freezing rain CAD areas of GA or the Carolinas for this one.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    SREF makes me think the NAM might tick north again.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    The nice thing is they don't wear out quickly here. I actually bought a snow pusher a couple of days ago for my decks. Maybe I'll get to use it eventually.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah I was just at the Home Depot and they had a bunch of cheapo plastic shovels marked up to around $30.00
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Girdeth y'all's loins if you rely on the Kroger in Oak Ridge Hope you already have all the bread and milk you need for your bread and milk sandwiches: Don't forget the sour cream dip for your milk sandwiches Home Depot also out of propane
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    NBM 15z. Higher Ice for some (mainly west), lower for others (east) as compared to 12z.
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