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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like it has quite a bit from the weatherbell maps
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Guess it's time to go back to tropical convection and strat observing. SOI dropped today for the first time in a long time. Sometimes you'll see people talk about SOI drops and storms with a lot of precip. across the southern tier of the US, but the current one managed it with a pretty positive Nina like SOI for the past month. Anyway: Split at 10mb: GFS has it too:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    I am very glad I don't live in one of the freezing rain CAD areas of GA or the Carolinas for this one.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    SREF makes me think the NAM might tick north again.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    The nice thing is they don't wear out quickly here. I actually bought a snow pusher a couple of days ago for my decks. Maybe I'll get to use it eventually.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah I was just at the Home Depot and they had a bunch of cheapo plastic shovels marked up to around $30.00
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Girdeth y'all's loins if you rely on the Kroger in Oak Ridge Hope you already have all the bread and milk you need for your bread and milk sandwiches: Don't forget the sour cream dip for your milk sandwiches Home Depot also out of propane
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    NBM 15z. Higher Ice for some (mainly west), lower for others (east) as compared to 12z.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro trended colder at 6z but that’s all I’ve really looked at.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    I would love 43 at this point. I want as little ice accretion as possible.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Northern plateau areas can see smaller versions. Not good for Scott county TN as well as parts of northern Morgan and Eastern Fentress
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Powell, it's after noon over there. Now that the Greenland stuff is sorted out they're letting it drink a little.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    80s would be nice!
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    "Compared to 24 hours ago, it is close to 10 mb weaker from the strongest reading it had in previous runs." -Surely not?? Just what we need, mountain wave with 0.5" of ice accretion! Woot woot!
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    If I had to pick a model I liked best right now for MBY, it would be the RGEM. Sleet to a bit of freezing rain, to plain old rain:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro, nice and slow: seems to hold on to the cold air a bit longer than it did at 0z
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    @40/70 Benchmark Split showing up on the 6z GFS:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Please note, if you have clicked on a time stamp under my avatar and are seeing this message, you have clicked into the long range thread. For .45" of ice accretion, press 1 To view the NBM total snowfall from two days ago, please press 2 For severe weather please press 0 To view today's 0z Euro's snow for next weekend (24 hour increment), continue scrolling and Mr. Kuchera will be with you shortly TBH it would be peak East TN to get a good snow next weekend after all the drama of this weekend's mess. I have only ONCE in my 42 years of East TN life, ever seen a storm verify from 4-5 days out except 1993. I think we do better when messaging is more like: "after the last miss, we aren't going to worry to much about this one."
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Have to admit I'm surprised the GFS went to not even the triple phase at 6z, but a quadruple phase. If the Euro hadn't wavered on that, I would be less surprised. And yeah, I get it that the Euro's surface depiction hasn't wavered much, but I'm talking about the phasing shortwaves. It's not totally clean, but it gets the job done.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    I am so sorry man.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Heck if I know, lol. I pay for these silly subscriptions so might as well use 'em for something and try to learn something new each year. As much a pay sites would like us to think that a subscription to get the highlights of the WeatherAIgoobldygookGPT JMG Buttersworth snow ratio meteogram charts will automatically = snow, it doesn't. Stakes are high on this one for me. This will probably be my biggest model rug pull, so might as well follow it when I can, or at least until the ice turns off my power, lol.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    And that post was not a response to yours Matthew, I was mostly done typing it out when you posted.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    You can say a lot of things about the Euro, but this is not the greatest consistency: Not necessarily trying to dredge others back up with me from the edge of cliff overlooking the dump fire, but objectively that is not a consistent handling of the shortwave interaction. That last frame is 18z and it is a hell of jump. Could it jump back the other way? Sure. Could it all have the same result in the end? 100% I do not want to be living on a GFS hut when the flood waters are rising, but it is what it is.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    I've wondered that too the past couple of days.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    May not matter that much in the long run, buuuuttttttt:
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