Holston_River_Rambler

https://x.com/clarksvilleclay/status/1733578669933666550?s=46&t=KMZWtmm9xSWkLJtvZXn39g

SREF plumes average 0.25 (Knox) - 2 inches Wise/ Roane Mt. Looks like my mood flakes are still on the menu. 18z NAM even looked a little healthier wrt precip.

Guess I'll go ahead and pull the trigger: …THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 0Z MONDAY... * WHAT…Thunder in the Mountains and plateaus is possible * WHERE...Plateaus and mountains east TN, southwest VA, western NC, and eastern KY * WHEN...From Sunday morning through Sunday evening * IMPACTS…thunder bolts and lightning, very very frightening PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Thunder in the Mountains WATCH is issued when the risk of THUNDER AND LIGHTNING is significantly increased during meteorological winter, but the weather weenie issuing the watch is nervesome about a warning. It is intended to provide additional lead time for those who who may wish watch the SREF plumes for anafrontal shortwave snow or a potential pattern change.

I've just been spending a lot of time (probably moire than is healthy) in the main forum El Nino discussion thread watching the folks in there to see where they think things are going to fall out. I think it started out as a ENSO discussion but has kind of e- or de-volved (depending on your perspective) into a tropical forcing/ pattern progression thread. as I see it there are roughly two sides: The bluewave/ snowman19 group who think that, to paraphrase Eric Webb from a month or so ago, that a hostile Pac jet, amped up by some sort of death standing wave in MJO phases 4/5/6, will pop an Aleutian so far east it will flood the CONUS with Pac puke. The 40/70 Benchmark/ brooklyn99/ griteater group who think a warm December is par for the course, but this will not be like 2015/16 winter (an analogue some of the other group seem to like). They think, like the ensembles/ monthlies/ seasonals are showing, that the Pac will be less hostile and assume a canonical Nino look, like many others have said elsewhere, as we move into early Jan. The above discussion is getting a tad testy sometimes (what can I say, its the internet, I like to watch). While the above summaries may be somewhat over simplified from what the above people are arguing, there seem to be a "we torch more often than not" group and a "decent Nino coming" group. I was just prompted to post the earlier comment since I know Daniel Boone has been somewhat active in that thread as an endorser (at least to my mind) of the 40/70 benchmark/ griteater/ brooklyn99 group and it seemed like he might be leaning more Bluewavey with the comment about the IO and the MJO. Dan, didn't mean anything bad by it, just poking the bear a little so to speak. All this is probably a little bantery, but I have found the above discussion a useful supplement from a seasonal perspective. Who among us isn't a little gun shy after all the recent La Ninas, neutrals, and a weak Nino though? It seems like everything is coming to a head with the current MJO wave. Does it spend more time that forecast in the 4/5/6 phases? Or does it continue strongly into the west Pac to and past the dateline? Does something totally unexpected happen? Can I type a little longer until the 18z GFS is finished running? Probably not. Right now I am with the 40/70, brooklyn99, griteater, and dare I say Carver's Gap group and think this is definitely a different beast from 15/16, but I guess we'll see how it goes.

We're not all jumping on the snowman19 and bluewave wagon?

Kind of a compromise on the EPS overnight for this weekend. A few less members showing snow, but a few more members showing a higher end potential. Here is Elizabethton, TN but most locations from the N Plateau in TN and KY to the east look similar. Someplace like Richlands, VA might have the best upside potential: I would say overall on the operational runs things are looking a little better, but not enough to get too excited yet. RGEM: Euro: Too little too late with the N stream s/w boost, but my bar is moodflakes. I feel like this set up looks really similar to one from last year, but don't really want to go back and dig through gifs at this time. Pretty wild look at the end of the OP 6z GFS too (300 hours +)

I'm so sorry to hear all that BuCo, but I'm glad to hear you have a good prognosis. My dad had some strange fungal infection and I'm embarrassed to say I don't remember what it was. It supposedly almost always affected lungs, but he somehow got it on a wound in his skin. He also had a pretty compromised immune system, but he had to take some sort of antifungal for a year too.

Some chance for our every popular wave riding a front solution with this weekend's system from the plateau east:

Actually @fountainguy97 I see there was another storm you were talking about now (EPS member 45)

EPS member 49:

Yeah I actually meant to the evolution of it in banter.

I just got a very wintry sleet and rain mixture. Gotta love the NW flow sleet.

Same as John here in Morgan county. Not quite cold enough.

Saw some lightning as I was driving in from Kingsport. Flashed over Wind rock mountain and I just happened to be aimed that way coming over the hill on highway 62 just before Oak ridge. Nice heavy showers all the way up to the plateau at 1300 feet. Powell I think your locations is colder than me at this time.

Absolutely blasting snow on Beech Mt though. Here is photo series of it moving in:

I have a friend who is at the foot of Grandfather Mt right now at around 4000 feet and she says all rain there.

If y’all have a minute and are near a computer check out the Beech Mt resort cam. You can see the storm rolling in from the valley. I’m definitely going to try to watch it since temps are still in the upper 30s up there.

It was definitely a weird feeling morning down this way. Mommatus clouds rolling in, in the AM, then rain, then clearing, and nice convective clouds in the PM:

NAM = Liberty?

Unfortunately, probably looking at a Thunder in the Mountains Watch later this week.

I’m ready for cool and rainy now, but I’m sure I’ll be over it by mid Feb.

Hopefully we can get some clearing late tonight in western areas. I’m in Boone strangely enough and the sun just came out for a hot minute. I was looking forward to trying the iPhone long exposure again but I’m not too hopeful up here this evening.

A little clipper action on the 18z GFS for eastern areas.

Well it was a near run thing at least. Just a little too much flattening in front of phasing shortwaves.

Looks like the OP 12z GFS might be headed for an epic phased gulf storm out in fantasy land.