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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Bays mt. band looks to be starting up a bit now, I will try to drive through it heading back to MoCo.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Desperation has set in. 100 second time lapse aimed generally upwind of the Bays Mt band:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    And of course as soon as I get to Kingsport, it looks like something is trying to start up in the right area:
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Noticed that and thought about you when I was driving up 81 this AM. That was really the only pace I noticed anything appreciable from Morgan county to Kingsport. Bays Mt band is no bueno this AM, but I did get some nice pics of Chimney Top:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    2017 probably a bit bigger and longer duration, but I see some similarities
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Southernwx was talking some comparisons between this Sunday and Dec 2017, anyone else see that? The radar looks reasonable: The system looks to have dug SW a bit more though:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Gfs doing the old double down happy hour for Sunday.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing I’ve noticed is that as much as I’ve watched these vort loops lately, those vorts near the lakes are not messing around. They’re moving substantially faster than stuff that gets strung out further south. Here today on a run, maybe gone tomorrow. One thing that might have to be watched with some of these runs that trail vorticity back towards the high plains and front range, is some mischief if one gets hung up for a bit while the more northerly parts of the shortwave move along. that could go either way of course: it outruns the cold or gets just enough space to amplify at the right time.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing I’ll add too, just based on current wx obs. How much of this stuff on radar right now is virga? IMBY I’d say 75% of radar returns have been virga or much lighter than they appeared to be. May be something to keep in mind with what the NAM is showing for later in the week
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Interesting wrt the NAM vs RGEM. Usually seems like in the 40-60 hour range the NAM will be warm nosing any and all.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    It doesn’t go out far enough to give anyone a NAMing (not talking about the more mid range system John is) but it does pop a low in the west central gulf
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Going to be interesting to see what the NAM pops out at the end of its run, it’s digging the shortwave toward the NW Gulf.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro will try, but I suspect the kicker will keep it more positively tilted and flatter than the GFS.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro looks like it will pull more moisture west to me.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    There is satellite imagery on it:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    With regards to Sunday, our shortwave is near the North Pole right now and will have a rather complicated evolution: Using the 6z Euro as a neutral example: Starting location: Complicated evolution:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    As soon as it tries to pop blocking over Greenland, it pops a trough over AK
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    I agree with folks that say this is likely a coastal plain storm as of now *until* I see more consistency and/or other more reliable models showing it. Trends have been our friend since early this AM, but they can turn into enemies quick. Especially wit ha complicated/ fast flow slinging these shortwaves at us.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    QPF probability trend on GEFS: Questions to ask 1. what is the moisture source? that one has a pretty simple answer, return flow as the shortwave digs on the OP GFS: 2. What is the forcing? Shortwave dropping in further west to cause the return flow overrunning isentropic upglide strengthening jet: I think it all depends on how the shortwave drops in and then moves, those things determines by upstream ridging and downstream confluence
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some support among the GEFS members:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    We'll see what ye olden Euro has to say. CMC did trend a bit west from 6z.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    GFS about to pull the Sunday system back west quite a bit, I think.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sorry if that was a lot, but what I was trying to say was that there is a very outside chance of an extra wave on Sunday. Also, to John's point about : If I saw this satellite without any other context, I would think someone in TN of the MA was about to get a decent snow: The dry slot from central MS and AL to the Cumberland Plateau is a little concerning, but still those are some colder cloud tops in the baroclinic leaf.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    We need to hope for something like 6z GEFS member 13 and then a last minute NW trend. **Please note what I'm looking at is beyond what the RGEM is showing for Saturday (discussed above by John and others)** RGEM for Saturday: Long shot Sunday: Probably shouldn't be teasing John, but it does seem like some of the coastal areas have been doing better lately, lol.
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