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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, its got some room to grow.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    We're the Keys source region!
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    First 12z Ensemble means: EPS: GEFS: Canadian ENS: EPS members: EPS members (2): GEFS members: CMC members:
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro wasn't too far off IMO, suppressed, but not as bad as the GFS dropping a TPV over the outer banks. There have been some wild ensemble runs lately, I'll post once EPS members are in and we'll see what that looks like.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Well, Euro is running on Weatherbell, let's see what the wheel of NWP spins out for us now.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    There's a frame with ocean effect snow in the middle Keys.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z was even better.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Kind of a non sequitur from me this AM but we finally have the MJO as plotted on the RMMs moving out of 6: I don't really put a ton of stock in the RMMs alone, but from the perspective of model watching, I think they can kind of give us a plotted idea of the "numerical" part of Numerical weather prediction, i.e. models and where they're coming at the pattern from. I just found it interesting that whatever slew of variables it looks at had the value stuck in 6 for almost 10 days, despite model forecasts consistently trying to move it out and now it is finally chugging along.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    That reminds me, I found something up in Kingsport yesterday:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Met1985
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just looked at the 12z Euro and that looked nice.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Definitely quite a spread with tropical Pac convection, but it does seem to be trying to glacially slide eastward. First thought when I saw this was Darwin looks less stormy than Tahiti and sure enough we have a rare (for this fall and early winter) negative SOI today. Pretty good drop over the past few days too, relative to recent trends:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    The only thing I can think to add is that the MJO RMM plots and whatever combo of factors that go into giving any individual day a place on the plot (OLR, wind anomalies, etc...) have been really stuck in low amp 6 for a few days now. I've not really posted much since I don't know what I can add at this time, but I have been watching the MJO and even though it's been slow it hasn't really gotten stuck over the past few weeks. It is now firmly stuck. Maybe those same "stalled" anomalies are competing with each other in how the OP GFS model resolves and propagates their influences them and causing some western trough tendencies? Feels kind of like I'm grasping at straws, but western troughs... ugh.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro AIFS ensemble? https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.15832
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Right now it feels like watching another record -PDO.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    That was some '96 like weather at the end of the 12z GFS.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Also, it is still "slikerin' owl snot" on my deck this AM.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some interesting radar obs this AM. Ft. Campbell snow band overnight: A streamer off of Lake Michigan kinda sorta held together to make it to N. TN east of Nashville this AM: ZOOMed in:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just walked out and same here, minus any flakes.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Flurries up here in MoCo now and a howling N wind.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    I also don't like to to see BAMWX chest thumping on X. Bad sign. Totally unscientific to let that to worry me, but it is what it is.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah that trough hung up over the SW doth maketh me a bit nervesome. We're firmly in MJO 6 after having spent several weeks in 4/5 and I always feel like there is a lag in the pattern over North America. I think we've seen this so many times though we're a little "once bitten twice shy" any time that trough starts to set up in the southwest.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    MRX has modified their expectations:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Finally got some really nice thunder here! Make of that what ye will for the pattern.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    HRRR has a pretty helicity swath over the current warned storm and paints another one over my head, later today! Joy
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