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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Watching the storm next week its interesting to see the GFS basically go back to what the Euro and CMC were showing a few days ago,. while they seemed to follow it and are now gradually working their way NW. I think what's killed us with this one is that the -NAO has been having a harder time establishing.The better runs had it further west over the Davis Straits. It backed way off and although it is bringing it back, it just isn't as stout. I'm guessing that has to do with fighting La Nina. It's going to be fun to watch how this all unfolds after the 10th. Please know that is not some cryptic assertion that we'll get buried in snow, just fun to watch a blocky pattern. TBH we probably want the March 4th storm to crank up and cut now, to help strengthen the NAO.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    It was down here in MoCo. We have a healthy population lol. That one was a particularly fat one though!
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    If enough people give this the thumbs down new reaction, maybe we can drive the below away: There are some 5" qpf means showing up over the next 10 -15 days on the ensembles.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro made a pretty big jump towards yesterdays GFS solution wrt to next week's system: Yesterday the Euro and the CMC had the energy coming out all at once and everything cutting (left gif). 0z Euro last night a piece is able to compress the flow ahead of the main shortwave (right gif). IMO 6z GFS shows a pretty realistic solution which is a compromise between the now far SE Euro and far NW CMC. Although I would still argue that the SE ridge will flex more and some NW adjustments are likely given this year's trends: Besides the ever present SE ridge the biggest question seems to be how much energy is flying around out in front of the main shortwave to compress the flow. In this fast flow N stream La Nina, we probably won't have a realistic idea of how that looks until 3 days out or so. But we should have a -NAO flexing and maybe even a 50/50, so we roll the dice this time with that: That would flood some areas and then snow. That would be a new way to fail, so maybe it works out this time, lol.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Bats are out tonight:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's even more Miller A like at 18z on the GFS. There were some nice hits (maybe 4 - 5) on the 12z GEFS too. Hot off the press 18z GEFS has some nice members too (and some clunkers) Very few hits on the 12z EPS though. Like Carver's said, it's an 8 - 10 day storm on one model. Sure it's got a low probability of happening, so I would encourage anyone who doesn't want to track it, to not track it.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    I just don't know if we've failed in all conceivable ways yet. We've not reached the fullness of our "snow lovers suffering" meter. March could really give us those last few chances to reach new lows.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z GFS is hitting the sauce early today! I'd say odds still favor a cutter, but who knows and its not like we have any much hope left to lose at this point lol.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    March thread is up and running. I can always edit it (at least I think I can) if it all ends up being a bust and just make it a general spring thread.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Does this winter leave like a lion or a lamb? Here I sit at 1300' on the plateau at 6:30 am on Feb 23. The temps are in the mid 60s - lower 70s. The old old folks used to say we had to pay for this kind of weather in winter? Will we this year?
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    The pattern at the end of the 6z GFS looks (not exactly the same) but awfully familiar :
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z GFS not too far off from a Miller A around hour 210:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    WRT the early March window I had made the call for (above), I admit that I didn't anticipate the SSWE having this much of an impact on the window we've had every month since the Fall via MJO progression. It def. looks to me like it has transported coder than average temps to the tropopause of the tropics via the Brewer Dobson circulation and enhanced convection in less favorable areas. Did it even enhance TC Freddy in some way? But it does look to loop out of COD/ phase 7 as most of you can see from any recent MJO RMM maps people have been posting. We'll see, but I think adding 10 days to the dates I posted above wouldn't be too far off. And look, I'm not trying to salvage some BS call by throwing out some word soup, I really don't care that much at this point and am enjoying the muggy weather this AM, but I do kind of worry that we might get some sort of a late Dec pattern repeat in mid March. I'll take it as long as we don't destroy a bunch of trees and pipes. Maybe the shortened wavelengths and sun angle help this time? Maybe it doesn't apply anymore, but I remember the old folks saying that when we had this extreme warmth in winter, even late winter, we would "have to pay for it" later. To that end, and Carver's you may have mentioned it, is it March thread time since that is where we've mostly been looking now?
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing I'll say about this day 8 - 10 storm on the GFS, is that the -NAO is in full swing by that time. We have seen storms trend south with time when that is present. And yeah, before someone says it, it is late in the season, lots could go wrong, and it is 10 days out on the GFS.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    If anyone wants to torture themselves in middle TN, take a look at the 12z GFS snowfall around hour 250.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro OP looks like it has the strong -ve NAO at the end of its run too. Like Carver's said, we probably end as we began. That NAO retrograded so far so as to trigger an -ve EPO and that is what kicked the arctic loose in late Dec. Will that be how it plays out again?
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah I figured (hoped) they called it the "decadal" oscillation instead of the "multi-decadal" oscillation for a reason. But it does look like it can be up to 20 - 30 years though. Although this source says it has been flipping more erratically lately: https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/data/el-nino-la-nina-watch-and-pdo/pacific-decadal-oscillation-pdo/#:~:text=The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO,or a 'warm' phase. The NOAA graph looks a little more optimistic than the 20 - 30 years suggested above: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    At one point this winter psu in the Mid Atlantic forum was saying that the PDO might not flip again until like the 2050s or something.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing that is interesting over the past few days (and I know I'll probably get some flak for the "can-kicking" nature of this post) is that the strat warming seems to have done what it did (in I think 2019). It may have caused some cooling over the tropical tropopause that has enhanced the MJO just as it was over the Maritime Continent. The basic idea is that when there is a SSWE, the upper levels of the troposphere cool and enhance the MJO convection wherever it is at at time. Webb called it back in January: We've had these loop-d-loop runs in previous Ninas, but not so much this year. Delayed but not denied watch needed? And besides, we have to hit a 80 a few times to get the trees budding out for that 1050 arctic high the second week of March lol.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Beautiful vivid lightning IMBY on the plateau!
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'll believe it when I see it at this point, but the Hi res models are pretty gung ho about some snow showers behind the front tomorrow AM. HRRR: and is that a little low to the lee of the Apps I see?
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    My parents told me about the late 70s, but I wasn't born until '83. My mom grew up near Duffield, VA and told about some huge snowflakes during one of those late 70s storms. Speaking of cold the long range GFS cuts off the trough just off the west coast and we get, if not snowy, a cold look: There and gone from one run to the next, but at least another option on the table and maybe that is the sort of look we start to see as the MJO wave progresses east.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't know which of the shear maps is the best to look at so I just chose bulk shear. Looks like some of the best os over central TN and s central KY for now.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    I DO NOT know as much about severe as most, but I will say it looks like the shortwave is pretty long and the best dynamics seem to be with the northern end of it (red circle), while the lower end (purpleish circle) is what will swing through tonight and cause a second surge of heavy precip.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks to me like the surface front is right along the MS river in west TN now:
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