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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just to be clear I think these two recon flights are different from the previous ones.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Tropical tidbits has 2 over the Pac right now. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like they are running two, one tomorrow afternoon / evening (16 20:30 -17 0230z) and one early morning of Saturday (17 830 - . 1430z). But I have no idea if I'm reading that flight plan correctly and can't tell whether they're flying out over the Atlantic or up toward where the vort. is, or both.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Apparently the Sunday system is getting *checks notes* a recon flight now. Are they trying to get a better picture of the Atlantic ridging? Or are they flying to sample the vort??
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Managed to get a few pics of the band as I drove home: I 81 southbound near mm 56 Looking SW from intersection of Wilcox Dr and John B Dennis: I don't think this was an optimal time, but there was some precip in the area the band sets up. Also @Carvers Gap: I may have brought some washing machine bad luck back to Morgan County, lol:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Bays mt. band looks to be starting up a bit now, I will try to drive through it heading back to MoCo.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Desperation has set in. 100 second time lapse aimed generally upwind of the Bays Mt band:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    And of course as soon as I get to Kingsport, it looks like something is trying to start up in the right area:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Noticed that and thought about you when I was driving up 81 this AM. That was really the only pace I noticed anything appreciable from Morgan county to Kingsport. Bays Mt band is no bueno this AM, but I did get some nice pics of Chimney Top:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    2017 probably a bit bigger and longer duration, but I see some similarities
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Southernwx was talking some comparisons between this Sunday and Dec 2017, anyone else see that? The radar looks reasonable: The system looks to have dug SW a bit more though:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Gfs doing the old double down happy hour for Sunday.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing I’ve noticed is that as much as I’ve watched these vort loops lately, those vorts near the lakes are not messing around. They’re moving substantially faster than stuff that gets strung out further south. Here today on a run, maybe gone tomorrow. One thing that might have to be watched with some of these runs that trail vorticity back towards the high plains and front range, is some mischief if one gets hung up for a bit while the more northerly parts of the shortwave move along. that could go either way of course: it outruns the cold or gets just enough space to amplify at the right time.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing I’ll add too, just based on current wx obs. How much of this stuff on radar right now is virga? IMBY I’d say 75% of radar returns have been virga or much lighter than they appeared to be. May be something to keep in mind with what the NAM is showing for later in the week
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Interesting wrt the NAM vs RGEM. Usually seems like in the 40-60 hour range the NAM will be warm nosing any and all.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    It doesn’t go out far enough to give anyone a NAMing (not talking about the more mid range system John is) but it does pop a low in the west central gulf
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Going to be interesting to see what the NAM pops out at the end of its run, it’s digging the shortwave toward the NW Gulf.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro will try, but I suspect the kicker will keep it more positively tilted and flatter than the GFS.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro looks like it will pull more moisture west to me.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    There is satellite imagery on it:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    With regards to Sunday, our shortwave is near the North Pole right now and will have a rather complicated evolution: Using the 6z Euro as a neutral example: Starting location: Complicated evolution:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    As soon as it tries to pop blocking over Greenland, it pops a trough over AK
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    I agree with folks that say this is likely a coastal plain storm as of now *until* I see more consistency and/or other more reliable models showing it. Trends have been our friend since early this AM, but they can turn into enemies quick. Especially wit ha complicated/ fast flow slinging these shortwaves at us.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    QPF probability trend on GEFS: Questions to ask 1. what is the moisture source? that one has a pretty simple answer, return flow as the shortwave digs on the OP GFS: 2. What is the forcing? Shortwave dropping in further west to cause the return flow overrunning isentropic upglide strengthening jet: I think it all depends on how the shortwave drops in and then moves, those things determines by upstream ridging and downstream confluence
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