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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    But let's also be fair to the GFS, the Euro (on left) also has some weird tropical critter in Pac, but the shortwave mess just ins't oriented in a way to draw from it.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Based on surface pressure maps from the Euro, I'm guessing it's a big old nope on the second system
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Carvers Gap Kingsport looks like it is about to get a decent squall.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Flurries IMBY as of now. Probably means John has an inch.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some of the snow showers dropping out of KY have Special weather Statements:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Precip panels have finally populated:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    The Euro still has substantial differences from the GFS I tried to get he loops as close as I could time stamp wise, but it still seems they are out of sync after a few frames.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    I hope the metal snowman is still up.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    At least the 6z Euro has a massive clipper dropping in late in its run Overnight ensembles still have both windows. I'm using the charts for TRI since both systems have looked better for eastern areas:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    No thunder overnight. Not a good sign.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was just thinking that we are entering the period where models sometimes lose systems or change them in some way only to come back 72 hours out or so. Something to do with wonky stakeouts data sometimes in the polar/ N. pac regions maybe? I also want to add that I’m sorry for what your going through Powell
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Does anyone know how to access ensemble H5 vort panels? Tomer Burg used to have that one Polarwx (I think), but can't find those particular panels any longer.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Trend on the EPS is for more vorticity in the base of the trough: Would should be bale to have the EPS panels to go along with the GFS member panels covering the event by 18 or 0z tonight.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    We finally have a potential system (the 15 January ish) in range of the 6z Euro and it has a little better shortwave further west: Personally I'd like that whole trough axis about 300 miles west, but still time to move around one way or another.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    WPC and NBM have backed down on precip. totals by an inch or so over most areas. That said, I think 3-4" is possible wherever the firehose sets up and if it stays put. RGEM, NAMs, and RAP are further south with the firehose bullseye than the globals have been until recently, towards your area. We'll see if we get a tick NW by tomorrow AM.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Nice slug of moisture incorporated into the Friday/ Saturday rain maker now: WPC edging up precip forecast:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Nice symmetry in the west Pac this am and it looksl ike it is having an impact where we want it.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2025GL117289 Here's a recent publication I found. Normally just lurk here. So far, great outlook.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro is close but out to sea. Man I hope the GFS is on to something and it isn't just more feedback.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    That lp track is the stuff drams are made of in east TN and the southern Apps. Just a tinge more cold air at that run.....
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    NBM is about the same as the WPC
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    hey we even have a slight risk for excessive rain for Friday through Saturday AM
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Good looking moisture connection for this Friday/ Saturday system
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Y'all got any of them Rossby waves???
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z AIs are a flashback to the old biases of the old OP Euro and GFS. GFS is progressive and dry with the eastern US and the Euro got shortwaves stuck in the southwest. If the new bias of the current models holds true (feedback cutoffs over the west coast and baja), pretty good run of the 6z GFS too. Ensembles still suggest best opportunities start around the 15th.
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