Holston_River_Rambler

Looks like a pretty defined Rain/snow line on Correlation coefficient showing up near John and Daniel:

The rain has arrived here in southern Morgan county. If i use my imagination there might be a very, very melted snowflake mixed in.

Dropped from 45 to 41 between Oak Ridge and my house. Not hopeful for MBY, but hopeful for places N and E.

I felt a moisture particle in the ridge of Oaks, so I started a sacrificial obs thread for tonight and tomorrow’s event.

I volunteer as tribute for an obs thread for this one.

HRRR was keeping me and I 40 north snow overnight but has trended NW and warmer since 6z. Both RAP and HRRR have a warm nose between 850 and 750mb: HRRR: RAP" That's not a huge one, but it's there. Keep in mind this is also just for my area in and around Knoxville, and Oak Ridge. Just one county to the north near Oneida, both of the above models keep snow around, but it does look to me like there is a NW trend the past few runs of the Hi Res models. On to 12z.

0z HRRR looking a little RAPish, about 40 SE with the snow wrt 18z: I'll wait until 12z tomorrow to get my hopes up for the inevitable flop though.

Like John said, probably the best run of any model for this potential event so far. An outlier for now.

I would say the 18z Euro ticked SE just a hair too. Apologies, I was still comparing the 6z and 12z.

It could certainly be wrong, but I think the latest RAP has a pretty good idea of precip. types based on terrain and location: Again, it is still ~40+ hours away and could be wrong, but that is what I would expect in this sort of set up. Def. glad it is coming through after dark.

Based on what has happened with the Thursday night system, I think the 8-10th one is going to produce some snow from someone along and north of I-40, location in TN, NC, or VA to be determined Trend on the GFS for Thursday night:

NAM looks to have come in a bit colder at 12z with a quicker precip onset for Thursday night. I'm honestly having a hard time believing what the RGEM is throwing out for MBY, but as Carver's will tell us, one disregards the RGEM for winter events at one's peril. I do like the RGEM, but: If there's a warm nose coming up I-75, I usually get it too.

Overnight ensembles are interested wrt wintry weather in the period around Dec 11-12. As many changes as we've seen with this upcoming system overnight Thursday into Friday AM, will be interesting to see how the 11-12th evolves over the next 5 days or so.

Same here. First snow of the system. A decent light snow.

I swear it did that before one time last year when it tried to get it phase 8.

I created a Winter 25/26 general obs thread in case anyone sees some snow this AM @Knoxtron and @John1122 I'm staring at y'all with jealousy.

Thought I would create a general obs thread for winter in case anyone sees some snow this AM and of course for the rest of the winter. @Knoxtron looks like some temps are between 34 and 36 down your way. Some radar returns down in. NE Alabama look snow-like: Wouldn't be surprised if you, or John, or one of our Cumberland county folks get a quick dusting.

True. We need some thunder in the mountains! That index has bottomed out for now.

You know, if we ever wanted an Aleutian trough, we have one, at least for now. Absolutely massive trough, maybe just a bit too far west.

Quite an STJ moisture train over head now, connecting the previous system to the next: It stretches from French Micronesia to Newfoundland. Not terribly La Nina like IMO.

Sleet here this evening.

To bad its post 240 hours, but that progression on the deterministic 0z Euro was pretty great for East TN and especially the NC mountains. Gawd: And this later in the run especially: The past couple of runs the Euro seems like it is trying to find ways to make snow storms for East TN past 200 hours out or so. Inspired me to take the first season at look at tropical convection mess. And it is a mess: Two tropical critters in the 3/4/5 regions (numbers 1 and 3), one over Darwin (number 5) (probably causing the SOI to jump around when weighing the MSLP of Darwin against Fiji) and some generic tropical convection in regions I've labelled numbers 2 and 4. I think this is likely why the RMM plots are divided. I was ninja'd by Jax while typing, but I like his CHI 200 plots above. Seems like there is a pretty good agreement of movement into favorable phases. Let's see how they look once these tropical critters in the unfavorable phases wind down.

Compromise between 18z Euro and 18z GFS = reality for the Dec 2-3 time frame?

I haven't started my WxBell or other subscriptions yet, but would be interested to see some of the individual members on GEFS and EPS for Dec 1 -3. Edit:

Decent overnight runs with a front swinging through and a weak low forming around Dec 1-2. Room for a NW trend at this range.