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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    I feel like I've seen this Day 10 CMC Mean look somewhere before...
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Birds are acting up again. Something sort of unusual weather is on the way in the next week or two.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Something of a tangent that I noticed staring at satellite imagery this AMN, but I do think it is pattern related: The first thing to notice is the the big plunge of dry air as a trough plows through the Caribbean (gold arrow). Watch it for a few loops and get a sense of how deep that is pushing toward S America. That trough is from our upslope storm as it rolled off the coast and fired up off the Gulf Stream. The real thing of interest to me though is related to the green arrow. That Caribbean trough seems to have helped squeeze off some tropical moisture from Columbia. Watch a few loops and you can see how that moisture gets picked up by the mid latitude trough over the southwest and us now being aimed at us in the TN Valley. Not sure it means a whole lot for our weather, just an interesting moisture source lol.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Everything is stabilized for now. Definitely appreciate everyone's thoughts and prayers!
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro gave a present to you West TN folks last night: Overnight GFS strat (10 mb level) did something weird that I've never seen before: a double ridge attacking the SPV: 6z didn't have that though.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Getting pretty close to upgrading my a SSW watch to a warning. I think it probably happens now in early Feb, but the good news is that even if it does, any impacts shouldn't interfere with the chances we've been discussion above. Probably 3 weeks until we see the effects of one and of course that depends of the type we see (displacement, split (where to the individual split vortices go?)both?) The below is an ensemble mean (GEFS): GEFS mean in fact shows a 50mb split as early as under 100 hours: I suspect that could cause some short notice EPO mischief if it can percolate down from 50 mb. Euro has a quasi split at 50 mb and also has the ridging in the EPO domain. Again though, it remains to be seen how that could potentially translate down to H5.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not a bad overnight Euro either, at least for higher elevations:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS member 41 is probably the absolute ceiling for this type of pattern evolving now. Please note that this probably has like a 5% chance of occurring lol:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro still likes the idea of a possible rain to snow situation over SE KY, the northern plateau, the Smokies and SWVA in about 7 days: 6z GFS looks similar, but still holding the shortwave back a bit so it comes out a bit more consolidated and a bit later. EPS has some good hits around the state centered around the 27th mentioned by Carvers (plus or minus 2 days on either side) Some hits even in places like Chattanooga and Memphis, though not as many.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's going to fun to see who blinks first, GFS or Euro!
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    It was yeah, lol. I'm not sure how to read this tweet, but it from someone who works for the WPC and seems to indicate the possibility for it be a warm core system:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Healthy looking storm off the east coast this AM:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Quite an OP model war overnight with the Euro and GFS respectively sticking to their guns. GFS hangs up the shortwaves out west, Euro allows for a more progressive boundary and shortwaves. Looks like the Euro control also popped a -NAO at 300+ hr.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Do we have a snow poo reaction now?
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    We were still waiting on the pattern change from the strat as of page 16 of the Jan thread. we did eventually get a storm, but it was just a light wave riding a front kind of a thing. I think this was all it amounted to: Apparently I was so eager to get a satellite shot I couldn't wait until full daylight.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think that was as recently as 18-19. We'd had one in late Feb 18 and it had produced a nice -NAO period that helped out the east coast (MA and NE), so we were hopeful that it would have the same result. It happened right as the MJO was in the 4/5/6 phase and just enhanced to bejeebus out of it there lol since it displaced some cooler air to the tropic latitudes in the tropopause. We did get an wave running a front for the "Dayton leeside micro low" event towards the end of January. here is a post from @EastKnox that kind of summed it up, lol: Current EPS depiction for this Jan 24, lol :
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Heck, even the strat is under strain like in late Nov: November gif: 6z this AM: Now, the type of stress the SPV is under here is not the same. There is no -NAO currently helping to displace it, but there are signs of a Scandinavian ridge exerting some pressure later this month: Late November: 6z this AM
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's my "flooding" post from late November for reference
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    I swear this is like deja vu for me for this time last month. I start worrying about the flood pattern, then that pattern starts to look more suppressed: Then Jax posts about East Asia. I've included his December post here just to show how eerily similar it is to yesterdays:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z OP GFS looked a little more suppressed with the energy scooting out of the SW. Hopefully that's a nod towards the Euro's progression. edit to specify that I'm talking about days 7+ pattern evolution
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ended up with about 1" here. Exceeded expectations for MBY!
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    I seriously just thought about you when I looked out at my deck. I thought, I bet John has 2 -3" based on my current 1/4 inch, lol.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    That's what I'm hoping too.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's eventually heading back that way for sure, but if we get a trough dump in the west hopefully we can keep a -EPO and at least keep some cold in play in Canada this time. I guess once it cycles back to 4-5-6, we hope it doesn't do that extra long Pac jet extension and just wipe out all -ve temp anomalies on our continent again.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    There have been a couple of OP GFS long range runs that have shown a semi split over the past couple of days, but that's about it so far. One oft he frames in Jax's gif shows one of those runs.
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