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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Absolutely pouring rain over here on the Cumberland plateau at 44 degrees. Whoever gets the shower I just had as snow at elevation over there is in for a treat.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    The end of that GFS run looked ideal.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some of the soundings even near Eastman are pretty close, but looks like some downslope drying:
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    GFS is back to obliterating western NC: @Met1985
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    We have the other subforums right where we want 'em. Man it was depressing from the MA to New England this AM, lol. I can't resist a good train wreck though. But usually when this despair starts and the people who had been advertising a big change get kind of quiet, IMO thats when big changes start to sneak up. Could be wrong, but although I haven't been active on these forums for as long as some, I've been reading for over ten years now and I feel like I can kind of read the room so to speak concerning the emotional rollercoasters that sometimes pop up. This is not to say we are like that. TN Valley seems pretty level headed compared to the New York subforum for example, but it was kind of jarring to go from reading Carver's thoughts earlier this AM to the MA and New England.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    I would prefer the 971 to be over Savannah for MBY, but that is good cluster near the SC/ GA coast. Even indication of a leeside/ inverted surface trough over upstate SC. It's such a bizarre touchy set up though. Instead of the giant cut off TPV suppressing things to our latitude with the snow a couple of weeks ago, now its a big cut off ridge in Canada. NAVGEM once again the least suppressed of all models for storm in the Feb 5/6 timeframe. A handful of very interesting looks on the 6z GEFS:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    I just woke up and saw your avatar in obs and I was like "That SOB is getting snow I bet" lol. No precip here but radar looks healthy. 39 or so.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Spring peepers peeping and a severe thunderstorm heading up the valley my way. EDIT not severe just a sws out for it. The special weather statement color is sort of close to the severe storm color on radar scope.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    I bet some folks in TRI SWVA and Eastern KY would have liked the overnight Euro too:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Best tropical convection has looked in a bit, IMO: Still some pesky convection around Darwin, so the SOI hasn't absolutely tanked. RMMs still trying to loop, but Euro is being more progressive and keeping everything in 7.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Someone, I think @Dsty2001was asking about the MJO recently. While I was trying to figure out exactly how the phase number for the RMMs is calculated, I found this: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/MJO_summary.pdf It has a lot of diagrams to help with things like impacts, Hovmollers, OLR and VP diagrams
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing I think might be messing with the MJO RMM plots may be tropical cyclone development. I mean, it is southern hemisphere summer, so we're seeing TC development in places like the Indian Ocean and I think we just had one hit Queensland in Australia From BOM Australia the RMMs "are mathematical methods that combine cloud amount and winds at upper and lower levels of the atmosphere to provide a measure of the strength and location of the MJO." If that is the case, they are taking in to account all cloud cover and upper winds into an equation and that equation produces a number, which is plotted on the RMM graph. I'm not trying to sound pedantic or condescending here. Please don't read it that way. I'm just trying to figure out why the RMMs sometimes seem to do a loop.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Clipper is back on the 0z and 6z GFS, 0z Euro, and to a lesser extent the 0z CMC Soundings look like there would be a relatively high snow level ~4000 - 5000 feet. I clicked for a sounding on Sullivan county and got this: GEFS and EPS for Elizabethton, the closest meteogram I could get on weatherbell. the period we are interested in the 31st through Feb 1:
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Getting a lot of thunder and lightning up here on the plateau right now.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Radar scope showing some thunder over Anderson and Knox counties. Is there a thunder in the mountains with snow fog on the ground bit of lore?
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    And then the 12z Euro looked like it was going the way of the 6z GFS: Not gonna lie though, I'm getting a little nervous. I haven't see the elk since the snow started. I also have only been able to access the area it has been living for two days, so hopefully just a glitch in the matrix.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Pre. Emergent. In all seriousness though, it is just one run at range, so nothing to get too excited about, but this is the promised El Nino storm track:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    No worries. As long as you don’t scare off the elk we’re good!
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    I started the January thread with a medieval depiction of January, so here is one of February from Amiens cathedral: My dude looks chilly: But what is he looking at? Us? No says I. He's looking out his window at: AND:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'll make one. Have to use the elk and wooly worm pics again.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sorry to swamp the feed with satellite imagery this AM, but its so cool today. What a connection to the east Pac! there even looks like there is a shortwave riding out of the Bay of Campeche.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just looking around the Pacific satellite as is the custom, really nice symmetry and a few other notable features: That southern symmetry is probably why the SOI is finally negative for the first time in two weeks. Not a huge drop, but progress from the high positive measurements lately. For any of you who are wondering what the SOI is, it is a measurement of surface pressure between Darwin Australia and Tahiti. I've kind of always wondered what the exact correlation for us is, and I guess, looking at this now, if you have a big drop, it means you have a lot of storminess over Tahiti and maybe since the globe likes symmetry you are going to get a northern hemisphere response that aims at the Southwestern US? I think the SOI as it's measured, also has a lot to do with the fact that the MJO is defined as a dipole with sinking air being as important as rising air for its measurement. But I am not an expert and that is just me trying to figure things out for myself. Looks to me like the refiring central Pac convection and the MJO wave will meet somewhere near or just west of the dateline.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Honest to goodness Clipper on the 6z GFS: Euro and CMC have the system, but it is more disorganized and further east. Even though I don't see this turning into anything for me, I'd love to see this for some of you upper east TN folks and just see an actual clipper work out again.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    The Emory at Harriman was frozen too yesterday. I meant to share that but forgot. Thanks Blunderstorm for reminding me!
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm really encouraged to see come convection in the central Pac, it has been dead there for a while.
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