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Holston_River_Rambler

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  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    I saw Michael Ventrice on twitter say he thought this was going to be the biggest outbreak so far this year, but I suppose he could have been hyping to get followers. I just don't know enough about looking at severe parameters to tell how significant this looks. Also since I'm on the other side of the plateau and all this looks to be moving W - E, usual that means everything has consolidated and weakened by the time it gets to the eastern valley. I was surprised by the T-storms this morning and maybe that indicates the atmosphere is a little more prepped that it may seem at first glance? At work in Harriman right now and there are a lot of clouds here and that usually (but not always) spells stability, at least for my neck of the woods. But looks like the deck is starting to break up on GOES 16.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Found this nice website that has some limited, but nice ECMWF data for the N. Hemisphere. I think it is all past data, but still useful http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ecmwf.php
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Found this nice write up on 300 -250mb level while trying to learn more about what was causing the lift over SW VA this evening. https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/winds/JetStream_Stuff/300_200_chart.htm
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Interesting find from a meteorologist in the MA forum regarding how the WPC generates their snowfall and other winter precip types probability forecasts: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/about_pwpf_products.shtml
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Seeing the link Carvers Gap posted in the speculation thread, made me remember a storm I was always curious about. I was in Kingsport at DB at the time and remember a what was probably a weird upper low that just spun over East TN. I remember the radar showing snow everywhere but Kingsport and the analogue of 3/26/99 seems to fit that bill. I wasn't into weather as much at the time, but enough to notice the weirdness of it. Any one have any memories of that one?
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    And I thought my waterfalls coming out of Cumberland county were full before: Sorry should have included the scale, 4.80 inches is the white
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Dates used for the above composite: 2-9-58 1-1-96 3-5-93 1-22-66 12-17-66 12-19-69 1-14-78 1-12-79 1-14-87 2-06-60 12-26-86 12-16-63 12-25-70 1-1-88 1-25-96 12-10-73 1-6-78
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    One last hurrah on this for a bit, unless asked for more.. I will be happy to do it for any all future months (with John's awesome help of course)! Disclaimer out of the way, I went through the KU book at just put in dates for one week before every storm from the 20th century that looked like it had a great track, or produced a lot of snow for most of the forum area. I mostly aimed for Miller As, since, for me anyway in Knoxville (1996 was good in Kingsport when I lived there though), Miller Bs have been awful. (Jan. 2016 was rough for me in Knoxville, though I watched it with y'all). There was one year that had a storm with an awesome track that their book showed as rain, but I left it in since the track was great and may have produced a different result given different boundary layer conditions. I also put in Jan. 1996, since it was epic for some of us. I couldn't add in anything after 2012, because of the data restrictions on the site, so I couldn't add my two favorite Knoxville storm years, Feb. 2014 and 2015. Without further ado, 500 mb anomalies in North America one week before some of our best storms:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'll also add this. As disheartening as it is, after looking at the NAO data today and having just looked at dates for big storms over the past few days, I think we want more mediocre NAO values. Some of the big dates had -NAOs, but most were under -1.0. But I think we've all agreed that it is as the big block decays that we get our chance(s). On the other hand there were no -NAOs below 3.0 in the winter in the period of record and I think only two on record at all, for any month. If this one goes that low who's to say what the outcome is. I also don't like the look of the little ridge poking up on that first image. Looks familiar to what is being modeled with this persistent mid continent ridge that connects to that NAO.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Alright, I chose dates that seemed to me to have the worst outcome (rain, no snow, warm) and I threw in a few others on John's list that I found to have also happened after a recorded SSW. For the ones that happened after a SSW I have added ENSO state and QBO since it was included in the SSW information and I thought, why not, and so then went back and added ENSO state and QBO for the others. I will also go back and edit my posts for the big snows to include ENSO state and QBO data so they match these. Here are my dates: 3-28-51: ENSO neutral; E QBO 3-12-54: had been El Nino, but in the FMA timeframe, dropped off quickly to 0.0; E QBO 3-6-69: SSW event on 13 March; El Nino; E QBO 3-30-70: ENSO Neutral; E QBO 3-30-71: SSW event 20 March; La Nina; E QBO 3-24-77: El Nino transitioning to Neutral; E QBO 3-20-80: El Nino transitioning to Neutral; E QBO 3-18-81: SSW event 4 March; ENSO Neutral; W QBO 3-26-81: ENSO Neutral; W QBO 3-1-2001: SSW event Feb 11; La Nina; E QBO To be honest it doesn't seem like any of those dates could have been big time snow producers for valley locations (could be wrong) and I will also add that many of the "worst" outcomes that I picked were at the end of March, so climo. may have played a part in those outcomes. I have attached images of composites of 500mb geopotential height anomalies for the time the -1.0 NAO began (top image), then the progression by one week (middle), and then by two weeks (last image).
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    So, to be fair, I thought it might also be useful to look at big -NAOs (-1.0 or higher) that failed to produce anything in March. I went through the NAO data on ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.index.b500101.current.ascii and searched for values or -1.0 or higher. Below are my results: -1 or higher 3-10-51 3-28-51 3-27-52 3-12-54 3-6-58/ 3-21-58 3-1-62 (almost the whole month lower than -1.0) 3-6-69 3-30-70 3-30-71 3-28-75 3-24-77 3-18-79 3-20-80 3-18-81 3-26-81 3-1-2001 3-11-2005 3-1-06 3-10-2010 3-24-2011 3-21-2013 -2 or higher 2-13-78 (only one that was close to the dates we're looking for; there were some April ones, but that'e getting pretty late in the season) -3 or higher None in the winter If John is willing, I thought it might be useful to look at his family records for a couple weeks after these dates to see if there were storms. If no storm, then I would like to build a composite for those dates as well so we can see what sort of pattern with a -NAO might not produce winter weather.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    So this AM I thought it might be fun to add to the above image by looking at how we got to those dates. We often see analogues for the date of a particular storm, but not the weeks before and if many storms come at the end of major blocking, it might be a good idea to check out how things looked before. Below are the images for one week (top) and then two weeks (bottom) before the events above. It seems to me the NAO snaps and holds the ball while the Pacific finally kicks it.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    I know I had two other links, but THIS is the correct link for the daily reanalysis page: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/plot20thc.day.v2.pl
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Alright, I have the first one. Below are the dates I picked. I started with the biggest ones on John's list and added ones I found in the KU book this AM. I have figured out how to work the system better and found the correct link (in the links thread) to the daily 20th century reanalysis data, so am happy to plug any combination in y'all want! 3-2-1942: No ENSO data; No QBO data 3-1-27: same as above 3-17-35 same as above 3-12-93: ENSO Neutral; W QBO 3-24-40: No data for either ENSO or QBO 3-1-54: EL Nino transitioning to Neutral; E QBO 3-2-60: ENSO Neutral; W transitioning to East based QBO 3-9-60: same as above 3-14-60: same as above 3-3-80: El Nino transitioning to neutral; E QBO 3-7-96: La Nina; E QBO 3-6-1992: El Nino; E QBO
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sounds good. We can always start with that and see what happens. Then I can try to dig into newspapers in the area I mentioned yesterday. Found a good online source for Knox News going back to the 1800s, but still digging for others places. To be fair I didn't have as much time as I thought I would today, but its a process and every bit helps.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    So that analogue website has a limited number of data entry points, so I have to pick a few from John's list. I thought maybe try Miller A and B events first, since they would have the potential to impact more of us than NW flows, but thought I'd see what y'all thought.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    I went ahead and looked through the KU book and have a list if storms that look to have impacted the TN Valley. I will add to it as I get more dates from y’all or other research. The KU maps typically show the whole Eastern CONUS, so I was able to see which of their storms impacted us. Some caveats though: 1. This is not intended to be a full list of everything just yet. Their book is aimed at Northeast urban corridor storms so southern sliders aren’t in it. I have also added a few extra already. I mainly want to get some of these dates out there so people with more knowledge of local climates can add to it or tell me “Hey, that one didn’t do much here”. I will go back through this thread later today and add the storms all of you have put into it already. 2. The KU larger maps are at low resolution so our microclimates in the high and low elevations may have had dramatic impacts not reflected in the book 3. I know we had talked about just doing March, but I just put them all in here for future reference. I see people talking about “changing wavelengths” in Spring and am not sure exactly what that means, but I suspect it means many of these storms may not be helpful as analogues. 4. I tried to look for uncomplicated Miller As that affected parts of the area. Some Miller Bs were included if they looked like they may have produced snow for some of the area (example, January 1965). I also live in the Great Eastern Valley so I may have excluded some storms just because I naturally key in on that area. If you have one that affected you and you want me to add it, let me know. 5. I tried to go by the start date listed in the KU book, but if we are going to plug these into the analogue generator I’m not sure what dates are best since we’re looking for 500mb patterns, not sensible weather. November events: 22 November 1950 December events: 24 December 1966 25 December 1969 23 December 1963 31 December 1970 16 December 1973 January Events: 5 January 1988 22 January 1966 21 January 1987 27 January 1922 23 January 1935 23 January 1940 11 January 1964 29 January 1966 18 January 1978 21 January 1987 25 January 1987? Mixing issues 5 January 1988 22 January 1966 21 January 1987 27 January 1922 23 January 1935 23 January 1940 11 January 1964 29 January 1966 18 January 1978 21 January 1987 25 January 1987? Mixing issues 16 Jan 1965 14 January 1982 7 January 1988 13 January 1978 February events 13 February 1960 11 February 1899 15 February 1900 7 February 1907 20 February 1921 21 February 1929 7 February 1936 20 February 1947 (western areas) 15 February 1958 13 February 1960 19 February 1979 2 February 1996 15 February 1996 March events March 3 1980 March 7 1996 March 13 1993 6 March 1932 18 March 1958 (close miss to east) 2 March 1960 2 March 1994 (Interesting track, but looked to be cone of those rare rain to snow storms that worked) 14 March 1999 (looked dynamic but rainy) April events April 1987
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    In regards the the winter of 95-96, I think most people remember January and after, but in Kingsport I remember a clipper type of system around Dec. 9, 1995? (not sure I could tell you the difference between types of systems then, but the track seems to have been out of the N. plains and across TN). Greatest, most epic clipper in history for me! I think I got 6-9" at my house in Kingsport and for my lifetime, at least within my memory, that was the best December snow.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Kind of an other side of the same coin question here, but there is an epic fail storm that I've always wanted to ask y'all about. I can't remember the actual date, so I was wondering if any of you did. It must have been between 94 and 99 since I had begun to watch the Weather Channel after 93 and got out of that after 2000. (I used to leave it on, volume down, while I slept and would love to wake up at 2-3 am sometimes and hear some of the crazier shenanigans late night on air.) Anyway I would watch the 5 day business planner and sometimes you'd see snow at day 5 and I'd then track it (just by watching the snow icon each day) until it was on the local on the 8s or whatever that was called when there was just music and no voice. I had no knowledge of models or anything like that then, I just thought they updated the forecast around or after 2 AM and 2 PM every day. Well if those snows made it to the first night on the local on the 8s (12 hours off) I thought I could pretty much bet on what they were forecasting. There was one night I went to sleep and the forecast was something like "Snow. Heavy at times. Accumulations of 8-12 inches possible". I figured if I didn't 8-12, well 6 would probably be ok. Woke up to nothing. I turned on the Weather Channel and remember their meteorologist Bruce Edwards saying something like "Well we were expecting this moisture to come north and it just didn't happen". {**Please note I'm not blaming him here or grumping, just rehearsing my experiences. This happened nearly 20 years ago and that would be crazy**}. Knowing what I do now, it sounds to me like Gulf convection cut off the moisture or something, but it always stuck with me how that one busted, but I can't remember what or when that happened. I was living in Kingsport at the time.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    One of my most distinct memories from that time and my entire youth (I was 10) was watching Johnny Wood on WCYB stand in front of a radar map, gesturing too a blob of precip in Texas and saying something like: "I know a lot of these seems to have missed us this year, but it doesn't look like this one is going to". Good times and thundersnow!
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    While checking out twitter today, I came across this link to a Compendium of SSW data sets: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/csd/groups/csd8/sswcompendium/
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